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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks

    I know it’s deep in FI but another couple of frames on this would eclipse anything we’ve been seeing! It is a definite possibility though as it’s a signal that keeps popping up on different runs, perhaps the SSW??

    I don’t think dew points would be the discussion then!!

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    2852A07D-C7BA-4F22-BC8A-E63370DA77A8.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    1 hour ago, Catacol said:

    That’s a 14 day reversal. And 6 days of substantial reversal. I don’t believe NWP will read the impacts of this well. Expect a lot of model volatility in the days ahead.

    Well unless the models has significantly improved since the last major SSW then you are correct.  Every time in the past when there's been a SSW event it's thrown the NWP models into a tail spin.  It's normally taken a few days post event for things to be resolved (if my memory serves me correctly).  Lots of factors in play:

    1. Speed of the down welling

    2. Location of blocks and cold in the mid lats

    3. Most have happened when we've been locked into relatively typical weather.  This one happens at a time when the trop vortex is anything but normal

    So interesting times but I wouldn't think any model has a handle on this currently (again only going by past experience).

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    I agree in terms of the microdetails it's probably in the top 15% as you say. The evolution is not untoward from a logical perspectice as it has been expected for some time now, and it is synoptically viablw. The depth of cold / snow on the 18z op is probably somewhat on the better side of possible solutions. This depends on how far east the diving low is. A further few days needed to gain some confidence on these details.

    This has been a recurring pattern top, northerly shots.

    Yeah its definately viable, its just another take on what the ECM/GFS para did, by placing everything just far enough east that we could tap into the full potential.

    If it goes to the west of the UK, it will do two things:

    1: put us at risk of injecting warmer air from the south, or at least not cold enough air for snow.

    2: make it more likely that should the NAO shift west based we end up very rapidly in a Atlantic wave train which will be very hard to shift out of with such a sluggish upper pattern developing.

    It won't be game over but every bit further east we can get the mean low, the better for both coldness, snow possibilities and length. 

    Of course every chance it ends up riding to the NE as well and never cutting down, which probably enhances the risk of the HP settling on top of us.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Tonight’s Navgem. 

    B456B754-92E5-43C8-A56A-E5A844900F3A.png

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    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
    3 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Tonight’s Navgem. 

    B456B754-92E5-43C8-A56A-E5A844900F3A.png

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    That's the graphical equivalent of letting off a balloon at a funeral. 

    Edited by Eskimo
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

    Tonight’s Navgem. 

    B456B754-92E5-43C8-A56A-E5A844900F3A.png

    836CD4B9-5ACE-4C25-8887-C7B2A802C66E.png

    At least someone is checking the NAVGEM runs still.😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Russian based vortex. That's likely to send us into "deep cold" from time to time. 

    He! he!, looks good doesn't it

    i have seen enough tonight on the models that i can go to bed dreaming of a white Christmas January😏

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    At least someone is checking the NAVGEM runs still.😅

    And don't forget the Chinese...😮

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    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    The other thing that is interesting to note on the 18z GFS ensembles is just how many of them are bringing down decent upper cold to our NE/N.

    It means that we have something to tap into if we get the synoptics to do so, which has been a real struggle and probably why this easterly coming up is at best very marginal. Should the pattern repeat we'd be much more likely to get a stronger easterly.

    The key is to hold the cold pattern for as long as possible. The longer it holds, the colder air will get all around N.Europe as will continue to help bring those SSTs down. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    12 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    At least someone is checking the NAVGEM runs still.😅

    I thought that was a sign of ultimate desperation? 😜

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    25 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    I thought that i would give 18z a rerun in motion,...MORE PLEASE TOMORROW😏

    anim_hcy1.thumb.gif.dbfe89aea6e4fe2407c2b16f9761db19.gif

    at least Europe will cool down,that's a positive going into Jan.

    If only the runs went on a further 48hrs! 

    With -25 uppers over the North Sea, it would actually make that body of water very useful for a change. I’d imagine billowing low based CB’s with a constant lake effect blizzard like what you get over the Great Lakes in a good year. 

    To sum it up, if that Russian vortex does get reversed over this way, it would get serious pretty quickly for us and Europe in terms of deadly cold. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    The main models seem to be dropping the idea of atlantic systems moving up from the south around the day 8-9 period.

    A good thing I think, because although they threw up some epic battleground scenarios, most of them let heights back into Iberia - which would have been a hindrance for long lasting cold. 

    Slight concern that another low dropping down from the north might produce similar to Storm Bella. The main interest on tonight's lies to the north east with the vortex on the move. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    55 minutes ago, Trom said:

    Well unless the models has significantly improved since the last major SSW then you are correct.  Every time in the past when there's been a SSW event it's thrown the NWP models into a tail spin.  It's normally taken a few days post event for things to be resolved (if my memory serves me correctly).  Lots of factors in play:

    1. Speed of the down welling

    2. Location of blocks and cold in the mid lats

    3. Most have happened when we've been locked into relatively typical weather.  This one happens at a time when the trop vortex is anything but normal

    So interesting times but I wouldn't think any model has a handle on this currently (again only going by past experience).

    Just to add. The 2018 event was a very quick response coming about 2 weeks after the event. It can be 1-2 months. Having said that it looks like this one will be reasonably rapid. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

    It's similar to the pub run last night with the northerly...

    gfsnh-0-198.thumb.png.4c62462ba3825211635d7aaa9a3c6211.pnggfsnh-0-222.thumb.png.6dae2730091a1795693b184be15c3fa5.png

     

    This sort of chart is what was shown a few days ago that i thought was too early. Classic case of picking up a signal from the EAMT event and reacting too quickly only to drop it and bring it back at the correct time frame

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    I'd take marginal easterly next week if the end of the gfs run from tonight and it's early run from this morning at the end verify.

    That would be a WTF moment if it happened, the North Sea would become a snow machine,with that depth of cold crossing over it. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 hour ago, Catacol said:

    Haha - just finished my longish post to find that gfs has duly obliged...

    image.thumb.png.b82849c177a22dc2d5ff787797185636.png

    Yes. Backs up what you me and met4cast were saying about right synoptics just a few days too early. This now fits the next round of aam surge from the eamt but this time at thw RIGHT time. So happy to see this at least confirmed on this run. Lets see if other runs follow

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    If only the runs went on a further 48hrs! 

    With -25 uppers over the North Sea, it would actually make that body of water very useful for a change. I’d imagine billowing low based CB’s with a constant lake effect blizzard like what you get over the Great Lakes in a good year. 

    To sum it up, if that Russian vortex does get reversed over this way, it would get serious pretty quickly for us and Europe in terms of deadly cold. 

    Yes the pre-conditioning of eastern and central europe before the reverse zonality kicks in is a crazy thought. We know what it brought in 2018 and this air at this time of year with these ssts after 2 weeks of our own little cold pool (as its not going to warm up here before) is a recipe for some crazy output

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Lovely upgrade on the Icon especially for the snow starved South and East with much colder upper air temps for all! This could partly be down to a more E/NEly sourced flow developing and more of a southern Icelandic high with 2 lows disrupting further west to the south of Greenland. It gets better as the week unfolds cutting off the Meditteranean sourced air! The only draw back is that the high then edges in especially to the North and West as in Met office text which looks dry at this point

     

    12z yesterday vs 0z just out lets hope the big hitters follow suit shortly atleast until the NEly sets up!😁

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    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Lovely upgrade to uppers and wintry shower potential even for East Anglia and the SE already as early as 90hours away on GFS 0z! Minus 8c uppers just across the North Sea already, ppssibly helping us tap into a slightly colder flow  just like the Icon!. Trends...

     

    Latest 0z

    Screenshot_20201231-035631_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Yesterdays 18z

    Screenshot_20201231-035639_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20201231-035613_Samsung Internet.jpgLatest 0z

    Screenshot_20201231-035618_Samsung Internet.jpgYesterdays 18z

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    14 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Support for the optimal northerly from the UKMO Op. This would deliver quite the northerly.

    UW144-21 (20).gif

    With better wintry precip potential (less southerly sourced air flow prior to this timeframe) lessening the mixing out of the cold over us?

    Edited by Kentspur
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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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