Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[TSNWK]

Theme of extending heights north east out over scandi has continued on this run so far.. the low to the north west of Iceland looks a little deeper and a smidge further east though?
 

[Zak M]

12z UKMO @144

Bingo!

[Battleground Snow]

Looking good. Throw the icon in the bin!

 

[That ECM]

Wow. Look at that for a nhp.

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T144, retrogression and onward and upwards I think:

Think this would go on to produce one of those runs where the cold over the arctic floods south.  There is nothing to stop it on this run.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Daniel*]

Definitely a Thames streamer look to it question the air being cold enough though.

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO T144, retrogression and onward and upwards I think:

Think this would go on to produce one of those runs where the cold over the arctic floods south.  

Yep, totally agree.  This looks an upgrade to me.

[SMU]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Definitely a Thames streamer look to it question the air being cold enough though.

I imagine thats -7c air. Will need some heavy pockets of PPN.

Good at 100M superb at 200M - White downs especially on the tops.

[Griff]

No danger heights take things too far west? 

(not something I'd even heard of let alone considered before this week FYI) 

[Battleground Snow]

GFS looks at lot different to ukmo at 144.

Still good for cold though

 

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I imagine thats -7c air. Will need some heavy pockets of PPN.

Good at 100M superb at 200M - White downs especially on the tops.

Quite different at T144. Both cold. Thoughts? FI starts here I would suggest.

Edited December 30, 2020 by That ECM

[Daniel*]

Low coming in from near continent now that would bring potential to bring snowy conditions for many...

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Quite different at T144. Both cold. Thoughts?

Huge easterly about to set up? Scandi high could merge with the Russian beast. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Quite different at T144. Both cold. Thoughts?

For me, the GFS got into a bit of a mess around T120 or just before, whereas the UKMO was a much cleaner evolution, so I favour the UKMO here.

[bluearmy]

Gfs 12z has heights not as low as the 06z run. Ukmo (and icon) even less low. Hence thicknesses and uppers not as low. Hence more rain than snow from the streamers early next week.  There is plenty of precip showing on icon and gfs - damn shame ! 

[Gregulator]

7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Wow. Look at that for a nhp.

That is a beautiful thing

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Quite different at T144. Both cold. Thoughts?

UKMO looks better with less going on around eastern Canada , but unsure of where we’d be moving forward if any of these 2 verified. 
UKMO could end up West based, possibly , but probably a spell of very cold northerly air first.

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo 850 temps

 

[sheikhy]

Not happy with the gfs!!!not as good as the 06z run!!i mentioned this earlier cant ignore it!!high slowly flattening as well!!!over to you ecm!!ukmo good!!!

[Djdazzle]

The usual confusion - one posts says great charts, the next says it will be rain!

Edited December 30, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Griff]

GFSP 126 vs GFS

Edited December 30, 2020 by Griff

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Low coming in from near continent now that would bring potential to bring snowy conditions for many...

More wet than white I think .... just a couple degrees short of nirvana !! 

[Man With Beard]

13 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z UKMO @144

Bingo!

If you can't get snow in this set up from Birmingham southwards, in early January, you might as well just give up. It's an easterly. It's January. The land track goes nowhere near the med. The flow is not slack. How can it do anything but snow?!?!

I would have liked a T168 on this (don't we always say that!) - how would the northern trough interact with the southern one? Half a chance it would interact west leaving us on the continental side, which would be a new one!

Edited December 30, 2020 by Man With Beard

[DEYS(Kent)]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

More wet than white I think .... just a couple degrees short of nirvana !! 

......and 150 hours away...

Trends..

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

The usual confusion - one posts says great charts, the next days it will be rain!

That’s what  shows BUT UKMO has slightly lower uppers so with it being borderline you never know ....