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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GFS and GEM agree on the easterly brining snow showers / streamers with sleet / rain along the coast. I have the feeling it will only be marginal for coastal areas and 20 miles inland and v low elevation (under 50m) . for most it should be snow 

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    I’m still concentrating on trends with the NH profile after day 5 and all is still good. Even before the expected cold shot I was always convinced an SSW would occur despite some reservations from a n

    I have a bit of an update from the Central European team of forecasting experts. Their charts currently show a strong alignment to the UKMO at 144t.  Looking a head for period 144t -240 they expect a

    If you’ve got a point for a specific member then I suggest you use the PM function. No need to be snippy tonight, I’ve got gin to drink and I’d prefer to not have to referee playground antics in

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    GFS slightly colder than previous run so showers into the east are all snow. Uppers -8 / -9 

    F882B676-0087-4AEA-9030-0E09DDAAFF92.gif

    Yes ironically gfs shows snow off the easterly days 5/7.  In association with low heights and thicknesses around 520 into the southeast 

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    Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
    16 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

     

    Not this old chestnut again. 😃

    Parts of Edinburgh got two inches of settling snowfall with 850HPA temperatures of -2 to -4 the other day! @Kirkcaldy Weather already mentioned this I think - from the North Sea! 

    Those snow showers even reached the West Coast of Scotland to sea level...from the North Sea! 

    There are many more snow parameters than just 850HPA’s as we all know.

    Let’s just see what happens rather than writing everything off five days before a potential chart becomes reality - surely as a snow/cold lover you hope for the best rather than always expecting doom/worst outcome! :snowman-emoji: 

    100%. I live at 270 metres above sea level in the North East and i can guarantee we do not need - 10 850's here for snow. Many places further inland with limited altitude don't either. On the coast i agree it may be that lower 850's are needed, especially when the winds are blowing in off a relatively warm sea. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Day 5 looks interesting: SSTs✔️; Uppers; Dew Points; combination of DPs and T850s image.thumb.png.284de3195ae3e1f81a1199d9acb6d1af.png 

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    It's almost getting boring (it really isn't!!!!), another stunning run incoming here.  Out to 156

    image.thumb.png.25875fce7ca67a6a6ef109ea903b3518.pngimage.thumb.png.036c1164691f6aa672240ce356f2480a.pngimage.thumb.png.e76827c2989c61f244ae6d361983565e.png  

    We're starting to enter the realms of FI now, but the direction of travel at this point is clear.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    GFS slightly colder than previous run so showers into the east are all snow. Uppers -8 / -9 

    F882B676-0087-4AEA-9030-0E09DDAAFF92.gif

    Yes better GFS run although I do believe it has a cold bias the longer into the output it goes however pools of - 8 air with lower thicknesses is more likely to give snow showers. The slacker the easterly, the better aswell. 

    That said, the major issue is when you look at the 850hpa anaomoly charts, alot of red in Scandinavia, going to be difficult to get a much colder easterly than the GFS is showing for the time being. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Back on the upgrades again

    Perfect flow out at 96

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    Surely Steve, the really deep cold air over Siberia/Mongolia will not be able to feed into UK because of the massive Russian blocking High?

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    First blob of -10 850hPa appearing across the channel in France, which shows how quickly cold can develop in the projected situation.

    image.thumb.png.1081a86a797a4c840ec6b52cbe099cbf.png

    Nice to see some snow showing up for the south coast even & also Kent (Steve M)

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    I think we have one of the best chances of a potentially notable cold winter in many a year!

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    however this will eventually turn less cold unless the low shifts - drawing from the med now, not a long land trackScreenshot_20201230-102048.thumb.png.fe5dd2821bfe9c006d29c80ea93d76e7.png

     

    Looks very temporary though, a few hrs later you can trace the air source back to Central Europe with the milder air into northern France. 

    4A826BED-2374-42EB-A5E0-B38F7C15991D.png

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    1 hour ago, IDO said:

    The ecm op d9-10 have been worthless of late, its usual problem, and not worth the paper it is printed on. A clear outlier statistically by d10:

    graphe0_00_306.49836731_150.974304199___.thumb.png.0b25b0f7b1e2e841593b8464390cfb99.png

    As with the gefs, by d9 lots of spread (10c) for uppers so it can be assumed that there is also entropy in the ecm 0z?

    I wouldn't say there's noteworthy spread on those uppers... that's why there's a noticeable dearth of excitement about the overall pattern.  We're losing sleep over "will it be -3 or -6?"  In a memorable winter spell options are more exciting than that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    I think we need to be looking north, east and south at 192!!!  Super stuff.

    image.thumb.png.c88640f05809d04b41f5abfe5fd5c634.pngimage.thumb.png.ce84cbe561d39c440cccd465091c3240.png  

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    I thought BBC  (Meteogroup) were a bit mad talking  about a low into the south bringing widespread snow later in the week. We are starting to see signs of this now though....

    340DAFA6-36CC-41D8-901A-7C120471BB19.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Week 2 looking like a very tough call, a mass of heights to the north connected by two mid latitude ridges (One in the Atlantic and the other in Russia). A deep trough could drop between the two ridges, or a smaller area of cold pooling that cuts through with the high reassert of itself.

    Questions that remain;

    1) Will the east/north easterly be cold enough for snow showers across central and eastern areas? Answer is a maybe depending on the depth of cold to the east and the extent of low heights to the south. The GFS is a yes, Euros not so much.

    2) When will we see the retrogression of heights fully towards Greenland happen? No guarantees yet on this and plenty of options on the table of low heights over the Arctic do break through and move south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Hollywood, Worcestershire

    Will be a glancing blow from the northerly on this run as the high builds eastwards. Perhaps some retrogression towards scandinavia?

    image.thumb.png.e5fbf91b50467243476d0b8cf5166b10.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    There is a possibility significant snow in the southern England next week  possibility.

    809BE9FF-277C-4F34-9924-A98BAB02ECDF.webp

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Please, God: don't make us endure a classic January 1974 Biscay Snow Scupperer!🙏

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
    6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Looks very temporary though, a few hrs later you can trace the air source back to Central Europe with the milder air into northern France. 

    4A826BED-2374-42EB-A5E0-B38F7C15991D.png

    That is minor detail at 7 days out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    A nice N/E flow with -11 850's into Scotland.

    1731747993_viewimage-2020-12-30T103003_011.thumb.png.1cc8b39de577eb1e5b52a6c3b81d8295.png1276481664_viewimage-2020-12-30T103016_085.thumb.png.5db9b9529c098fcdfa9dd84804a0949c.png580223873_viewimage-2020-12-30T103031_803.thumb.png.b9bb407a9d8ed56b13f53265dc35c580.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
  • Weather Preferences: The colder the better
  • Location: Leigh on Sea
    1 minute ago, Climate Man said:

    That is minor detail at 7 days out.

    Would be almost perfect if it could track ENE . . .

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

    For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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