Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

Battleground Snow
 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

Recommended Posts

Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

gfsnh-0-384.pnggfsnh-1-384.png

GFS Gets there in the end 

All well and good, but where is the cold on that chart!

I think 99% of forum members would sell their grandma and entire extended family for that one.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

ECM out to 120 not blowing up a low around SW Greenland like UKMO and GFS, cold Easterly flow.

ECH1-120.GIF?30-12ECH0-120.GIF?30-12

GFS 120 mean

gensnh-31-1-120.png

ECM 144 strong Easterly, snow showers packing into the SE one would think.

ECM1-144.GIF?30-12

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted (edited)

Bit of a dogs dinner trying to find the route we're taking past 120hrs ! ECM looks to be taking the high further north and east! 

BTW, why on earch is the 18Z always showing more severe conditions then 00Z ?

 

ECM 144.... where next?

 

ECMOPEU00_144_1-7.png

Edited by KTtom
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

Well i think by 192, the ECM has decided it has no idea what its doing and just gave up and threw anything out...never seen a chart like this...impressive for a lack of PV tho..

 

ECMOPEU00_192_1-2.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
radiohead Experienced

radiohead

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM 144 strong Easterly, snow showers packing into the SE one would think.

ECM1-144.GIF?30-12

 

Uppers not cold enough for snow showers apart from on high ground, ECM showing rain for most there

spacer.png

Edited by radiohead
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted

Why do the charts constantly alternate between decent uppers to not, day by day. Very annoying.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

At first 192 looks west based and not great, but look at the Easterly and cold pool developing on its way to the U.K.

All routes lead to cold aye!!

B4CFD804-5041-4A65-9964-16BBF924B9CD.png

25033F48-DF06-4FBE-8113-B5D42AD5850F.png

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
Just now, O'Maille80 said:

Why do the charts constantly alternate between decent uppers to not, day by day. Very annoying.

They have been fairly consistent in this respect. Uppers have always been shown to be around -4 to -6c.

I think we are just in a bit of a holding pattern now - chilly and mainly dry. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

 

Uppers not cold enough for snow showers apart from on high ground, ECM showing rain for most there

spacer.png

I would take those charts with a large dose of salt personally and of course things won't be exactly like that anyway. It is fun to discuss though.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted
Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

They have been fairly consistent in this respect. Uppers have always been shown to be around -4 to -6c.

I think we are just in a bit of a holding pattern now - chilly and mainly dry. 

Thanks, but thats incredibly frustrating imo. It seems like we're chasing something that stays the exact same distance away the whole time.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

WOW, different route but that is an epic chart and extremely cold ❄️❄️

EF0DAADC-6CEE-4505-BA77-CB4C588D15C3.png

223882E3-C6E6-45C7-BBBB-C492DCA6DA29.png
 

 

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 13
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Not at all sure what the ECM is doing but ironically delivers probably the snowiest solution by the end of the run.

image.thumb.gif.0593c835e2833bae036796150ee07403.gif
 

image.thumb.png.1a244e8f8504f0414cc3229b992e2e3b.png

No marginality here with 850s of -8c across most of the U.K. and -10c for the south east.

In seriousness, this one is probably going to be a synoptic outlier in the ensemble suite. However the trend of colder air filtering around the Scandinavian section of that high is one to watch, especially as the UKMO would do something similar at day 6.

image.thumb.gif.073c1cb3c5a2502695ffdc506bbbf573.gif

Note the trough east of Finland, that is where the cold air starts to filter around that high. Similar to the ECM, though in that run the cold comes from further east.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
  • Like 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

WOW, different route but that is an epic chart and extremely cold ❄️❄️

EF0DAADC-6CEE-4505-BA77-CB4C588D15C3.png

223882E3-C6E6-45C7-BBBB-C492DCA6DA29.png

Minus 10c uppers for the SE and EA any precip would surely be wintry on that anyone got the charts for this date?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

Big improvements on ecm this morning!!high looks further north and 850s alternate between -5 and -7!!gfs looks fantastic again!!one thing that stands out to me is the high now looks like going towards scandi more early on around 120 144 hours!!more changes to come!!those ecm precipitation charts were showing all rain from the north sea but now a few pink blobs startin to show up!!maybe starting to realise the air could be cold enough?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

GFS ensembles were delayed and are still coming out. (204h as I post)

the mean is actually slightly better than the 18z for the same period

gensnh-31-1-204.png

Plenty of options for direction of travel after144 with varying degrees of wintriness.

 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
  • Author
Posted
34 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Big improvements on ecm this morning!!high looks further north and 850s alternate between -5 and -7!!gfs looks fantastic again!!one thing that stands out to me is the high now looks like going towards scandi more early on around 120 144 hours!!more changes to come!!those ecm precipitation charts were showing all rain from the north sea but now a few pink blobs startin to show up!!maybe starting to realise the air could be cold enough?

It's a Great run in my opinion, remember the uppers were forecast for this week to be higher than they are now, apply that logic 7 days on and we have just  cold enough uppers to get snow from an Easterly.

I think met office will be wrong in their call saying the air isn't cold enough to our east yet.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

Enjoying this morning's output which has a look if the late 70's and early 80's winters about it.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
NewEra21 Seasoned

NewEra21

Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
Posted
47 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Minus 10c uppers for the SE and EA any precip would surely be wintry on that anyone got the charts for this date?

Can see the snow showers starting to build in the North sea.

overview_20201230_00_240.jpg

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Still fluid as to how the block matures after d6 and no change from yesterday, a plethora of direction of travel in the gefs from great to good to okay to disappointing by d10. 

D10 gefs>gens_panel_xmm8.png

The control gets messy and ends up flat by d12:

anim_hrz2.gif

Looks in a small cluster but a shortwave or poor phasing and the blocking can be lost. The main cluster appears to be similar to yesterday's 18z and the ecm 12z; a trough dropping over the UK by d10 with a northerly and the variation is how west based the pattern is.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Popular Post
Posted

Not got time for more than to say - this looks pretty good

image.thumb.png.bfea458fe967d0b53d01dc814eaffbbc.png

As per EPS yesterday the SE Euro anomaly in decline, so the feed of air will get colder.........

  • Like 14
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Popular Post
Posted

So the METO thinking of systems moving up from the near continent starting to show its hand

image.thumb.png.d91f04fb25cec7bbc00fb6051170ebb8.png

image.thumb.png.7142db90fd70f768ae99b0f0ecdb5f9d.png

  • Like 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...