Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Cheshire Freeze]

ICON good early doors with a better angle of WAA in the Atlantic and better spacing between troughs N of Norway. This is early doors at 78 hrs

[Kentspur]

Marginally better heights by a gnats whisker on Icon 0z compared to 18z over the Med, and better heights heading slightly more vertical towards Iceland and better north of Scandinavia 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

I need to stop getting up for these early icon runs 

168 v 180 12z. Would like that high a few hundred miles further north, but it's still very good.

 

[Mucka]

Good morning.

UKMO a little disappointing this morning but looks suspicious in that it blows up a low SW Greenland which has not been any previous output.

And this forces the pattern further SE (Flatter)

 

But then GFS produces this (also energises that low) so could be a fly in the ointment as far as any quick route to opening the arctic flood gates goes but on the flip side we would likely be in an Easterly longer

Edited December 30, 2020 by Mucka

[Kentspur]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Good morning.

UKMO a little disappointing this morning but looks suspicious in that it blows up a low SW Greenland which has not been any previous output.

And this forces the pattern further SE (Flatter)

Tighter isobars longer easterly fetch though not sure on how cold this would be considering Eastern Europe is hardly that cold, normally we would have a lovely snowy streamer type setup in an average January with this setup!

Edited December 30, 2020 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Good morning.

UKMO a little disappointing this morning but looks suspicious in that it blows up a low SW Greenland which has not been any previous output.

And this forces the pattern further SE (Flatter)

Yes, looks a bit odd, still good charts though.

Gfs at 138, still very cold. Let's see where it goes

Are we seeing the 00z wobble again?

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Battleground Snow

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Tighter isobars longer easterly fetch though not sure on how cold this would be considering Eastern Europe is hardly that cold, normally we would have a lovely snowy streamer type setup in an average January with this setup!

Still a slackish flow though and the high is a little to far South for a nice convective Easterly. We want to see dark blues (lower heights) over the UK rather than light greens/blues for a true Beasterly.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Mucka

[Battleground Snow]

Ukmo 850 temps for 120 and 144, cold!

 

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes, looks a bit odd, still good charts though.

Gfs at 138, still very cold. Let's see where it goes

Are we seeing the 00z wobble again?

 

It just sending more energy NE throughout which will force the pattern SE, we could do with more undercut like previous Ops.

Still very blocked, just not especially conducive for deep cold or snow  in any kind of reasonable timeframe, though caveat is you can never be sure what would develop, it is just a drier less cold pattern for a while than previous runs

[Kentspur]

Pockets of minus 8c air finally being modelled for parts of the South and East from 150 onwards on GFS 0z, and North Sea streamers starting to set up both in the North and SE/South

Edited December 30, 2020 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

GFS at 174, more heights around scandi on this run, I think it will still turn out good in FI  though. Very cold uppers still in circulation.

 

[Mucka]

 

Could deliver a true eye popping Beast from the East in deep FI if it links up properly with Scandi ridge.

[Battleground Snow]

Para at 150 also going for more Scandinavia heights, looks and improvement on its 18z, again also has cold uppers.

 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

 

Could deliver a true eye popping Beast from the East in deep FI if it links up properly with Scandi ridge.

Yes with scandi heights I think we reduce the risk of a west based NAO.

[northwestsnow]

Beautiful UKMO ...

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Yes with scandi heights I think we reduce the risk of a west based NAO.

Once the Atlantic ridge topples that far SE from T120 there is no chance of W based neg NAO because we are not going to get the trough digging from the N to create one, instead the trough is forced more E.

But that was never my concern so purely from a NIMBY perspective the output moving away from a frigid long fetch Northerly to a less cold (at least for a while) long fetch Easterly isn't great but for those in the E & SE it could deliver a memorable period, especially 2nd week of Jan.

The only thing is Easterlies are fickle beasts and it is a long way out. TWT. 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Mucka

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Once the Atlantic ridge topples that far SE from T120 there is no chance of W based neg NAO because we are not going to get the trough digging from the N to create one, instead the trough is forced more E.

But that was never my concern so purely from a NIMBY perspective the output moving away from a frigid long fetch Northerly to a less cold (at least for a while) long fetch Easterly isn't great but for those in the E & SE it could deliver a memorable period, especially 2nd week of Jan.

The only thing is Easterlies are fickle beasts. TWT. 

If we could just reduce those damn heights over south east Europe, we could draw in a long fetch Easterly by 240

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

If we could just reduce those damn heights over south east Europe, we could draw in a long fetch Easterly by 240

Yeah that would have the SE weeping with joy but I suspect having low pressure anchored to the SE would wet their appetite before that

 

I will say that if this pattern did set up then Winter would be locked in for a long time so from that perspective it is amazing.

Edited December 30, 2020 by Mucka

[Battleground Snow]

I think I prefer the para this morning,

There is a small gap for the cold to sneak through from the east with lower heights in Turkey compared to the regular GFS. 

 

[Battleground Snow]

Gem at 180 follows a similar path.

A different pattern today, but still a good one for coldies, onto the ECM!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Much much better foundations for a prolonged cold spell on the 0z GFS, rather than the boom bust type charts we saw yesterday. The slower build, Scandi-Greenland is much more assured in terms of a transition than a quick wham bam thank you mam flash in the pan Greenland HP.

Having the Scandi HP (with some heights left in the Atlantic) buys us time whilst the TPV displaces, rather than the sinking of a GH that we saw on earlier runs, with pressure from the moving TPV eventually sending us into mild oblivion 

Once we've bought that time, we have possibilities like this-

Edited December 30, 2020 by CreweCold

[Battleground Snow]

JFF - but I'll leave you with this chart to chew over with your cornflakes this morning.

Not bad for a west based NAO haha

[Mucka]

GFS Gets there in the end 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Is amazing, that Low in the Western Atlantic on the GFS from early next week and beyond just seems to get stuck in that same spot, swirling around on itself. Bless it, that Low hasn’t got what it takes to defeat the Northern UK block 

Only right at the end does it try to advance further East... slowly

To that Low’s credit, it did help to support the block to the North and West of the UK. So probably unfair to demonise it. It was a well behaved Low Pressure system overall. The UK pretty much locked into a chilly spell with a flow between the East and then North as some deep Scandinavian troughing drops down to our East (blues and purples).

Edited December 30, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Removing extra duplicate charts

[Mucka]

21 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Much much better foundations for a prolonged cold spell on the 0z GFS, rather than the boom bust type charts we saw yesterday. The slower build, Scandi-Greenland is much more assured in terms of a transition than a quick wham bam thank you mam flash in the pan Greenland HP.

Having the Scandi HP (with some heights left in the Atlantic) buys us time whilst the TPV displaces, rather than the sinking of a GH that we saw on earlier runs, with pressure from the moving TPV eventually sending us into mild oblivion 

Once we've bought that time, we have possibilities like this-

I'd rather have that type of synoptic a week earlier as per 18z and see how we go from there unless I am being guaranteed a prolonged Easterly and transition to that end of time 384 chart in which case you have yourself a deal. 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Mucka