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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted (edited)

Stop it GEM❄?☃️❄?☃️ I would love 95% of Europe to be snow covered by the 2nd week of January of course 

gem-16-240.png

Edited by Kentspur
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)

The Pv seems to be gaining strength around Greenland in FI given the SSW  I have my suspicions.. the fl that high pressure gets pushed around so easily.. I doubt it will look away close to how that run is

Edited by Dave Kightley
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
18 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

The way that low behaves next weekend is far from done and dusted plus even the Monday still cold out given the crap later run... I wouldn't worry yet

Not really a worry just the wax and waning of the output.

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Not really a worry just the wax and waning of the output.

Yea with the SSW even if things do go pear shaped still got more chances..when the Models get to grip with how the North Pole behaves after the SSW I doubt the models long term anywhere

near correct in that part of the world yet

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O'Maille80 Enthusiast

O'Maille80

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Stop it GEM❄?☃️❄?☃️ I would love 95% of Europe to be snow covered by the 2nd week of January of course 

gem-16-240.png

Little old Ireland getting jaffa cakesed on on as usual.

Edited by O'Maille80
hilarious auto correct
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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

Yes, UKMO just about maintains the cold and dry theme to day 6, but it looks to have a warm front approaching Scotland. This is as good as it gets, GFS is frankly rubbish , Atlantic high flatter and the low to the north fails to drop south. Hopefully ECM will bring some New Year cheer. 

UKMOPEU00_144_1-15.png

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The Beast From The East Community Regular

The Beast From The East

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
Posted
8 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Yes, UKMO just about maintains the cold and dry theme to day 6, but it looks to have a warm front approaching Scotland. This is as good as it gets, GFS is frankly rubbish , Atlantic high flatter and the low to the north fails to drop south. Hopefully ECM will bring some New Year cheer. 

UKMOPEU00_144_1-15.png

First of all Happy New Year to you all...

GFS has just woken up with a very sore head this morning after seeing in the new year...  Hopefully Things will look good again later on the next run..

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Couldn't make it up. ECM goes from zero to hero at day 5. GFS goes the opposite way.

Model hokey cokey

Edited by CreweCold
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Ec decideds to do a u turnbetter block heading north. Latest on next week's easterly showing any wintry weather to the hills. Hopefully some thing similar on the 6z gfs and inline with ec. The outlook is very unsure in fi but interesting given the projected ssw and various forcing on the nhp ete just to note ec much more amplified than ukmo at 144hrs so mabye a bit exaggerated by ec? 

Edited by swfc
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Just seen the BBC long range and they are saying 5/6 c over much of the country next week, that seems crazy with this chart and uppers!! Can that be right? 

F6CE0951-59F6-4334-8B98-8855EC0B8726.png

473D7DB3-31E6-4DDD-8BE4-A27A5E990CC9.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Booooom...

Day 8 

image.thumb.png.61faf7f79520e99e73abde0aa6529729.png

Must be some heavy snow changes with that chart, you’d think!! 

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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Just seen the BBC long range and they are saying 5/6 c over much of the country next week, that seems crazy with this chart and uppers!! Can that be right? 

F6CE0951-59F6-4334-8B98-8855EC0B8726.png

473D7DB3-31E6-4DDD-8BE4-A27A5E990CC9.png

 I’ll run through Leeds town centre naked if those temps are right from the BBC

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Great heights building over Greeny, LP dropping over the U.K.

Looks great compared to the GFS that’s for sure ????
 

Happy New Year  

2582613C-86F2-42EE-B285-7E3CD3D31981.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted

So the uppers on EC from day 3 to day 8 look very cold to me ...

image.thumb.png.073d67c6938a1a669ad0e75d4dc26d5e.png

image.thumb.png.f9237efde2b5b5c6df184f85ca986e92.png

image.thumb.png.a20b8d7ccfbc142da4993e333613d4e0.png

image.thumb.png.691ad8af6d19f629ecf4ae6ff12f8d72.png

image.thumb.png.62cd9be6411659d17a7b185cbcc63c2b.png

image.thumb.png.86db035acfa430404b580fb7acf05c42.png

If those charts produce 5 or 6 degrees in Jan I think its time to fold and give up.

Maybe I'm missing something...

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Just seen the BBC long range and they are saying 5/6 c over much of the country next week, that seems crazy with this chart and uppers!! Can that be right? 

F6CE0951-59F6-4334-8B98-8855EC0B8726.png

473D7DB3-31E6-4DDD-8BE4-A27A5E990CC9.png

Matches Mets forecast for here, no lower than 5 c. However, these are Maximum temperatures and may only be reached for a short time early afternoon with the majority of the day a good deal colder.

Ecm has indeed injected some NY cheer, key ingredients is 1. Getting the Atlantic ridge as far north as possible and 2. If the low does drop it gets as far south as possible, a little east movement will also be nice but that probably being greedy. 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Day ten on ec looks very wintry in theory. Decent sign of the Reversal on the nhp. Pretty good imo

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
5 hours ago, snowking said:

Cheers to that.

Happy new year to one and all.

And for anyone who’s mad enough to be up for the 0z’s, just remember that we might as well bin anything beyond day 5 right now (though I hope it’s still fun to watch), so don’t let 2021 get you down this early on.

 

He has a point. 

8855D2B4-2D14-4ABD-BC65-298C3CC6383F.png

2A1620AF-9320-456C-BAB4-8238B2084EE6.png

9A8E54C9-AF15-4129-9F5A-FF11A63BBFE5.png

F8A94246-11F1-4442-9DE2-E38674EACD22.png

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Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Posted

BBC and MetO max temps are always rubbish and normally refer to someone living in a loft conversion in Notting Hill! For most mortals highs of 2c to 4c are more likely next week. The past 6 days have brought highs ranging from -1c to 3c here and I don’t exactly live on a mountain 

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Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Posted
3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

ECM snow lover's fantasy chart

snowdepth_20210101_00_240.jpg

BANK! What could possibly go wrong  

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