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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp delivers the goods for all. Happy New year everyone...see you next year

4F3F0405-FE97-4AB0-969E-A34C54787680.png

B6B5A9BE-E35A-40A3-871B-3AF47BC6523E.png

843C3189-6719-4B39-96FB-BCE1595FC3B0.png

Towards the end of the run looks like it's sniffing out the SSW.. The azores high shooting north... 

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

By the 8th the GEFS are showing a decent interest in a fairly punchy northerly . Indeed some might say an 'arctic' northerly . Not all of them look dramatic at face value (the coldest charts rarely do!).  

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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

Happy new year everybody my last blog for 2020. GFS not interested in Icelandic low 

more from the south.Looks very good to me perhaps trying to drag slightly less cold 

air up from the south but that’s far from certain.Generaly to end this year SSW will

run the show the charts will struggle for some time yet a lot depends on reversal

or split in polar vortex.what a great weather watch it has been and still so much 

more to look forward too in the new year.

 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

I am done with 2020,...good riddance,...see you all on the other side,going to spend the rest of what is left with my family to celebrate 2021

night all and enjoy the rest of the Holidays and hopefulyl we start the new year on a very snowy one

                                                                                                       HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE

                                                                                                     3381769652021-happy-new-year-gif-animated-fireworks-white.thumb.gif.7671e67fe835cfbb1ffde195ef7bcecd.gif

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
typo
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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted
12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just for fun at this stage but keep an eye on that low NE of Iceland...

gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.bbfb7a148c749bb6db8479c9c1dceb20.png

 

I think you highlighted this yesterday, good call. It's worth watching. On this occasion a near miss, but getting Europe to our immediate East colder from this is a pay-off worth having going forwards. (Other perts will be a direct hit!) Nothing bad about these charts, just variations on a theme. Going into the New Year plenty to be optimistic about.

spacer.png

Happy New Year all.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Another good GFS run.........though still waiting for the spectacular.. Then perhaps we can have ‘That GFS run’. 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

Last one from me,...the gefs latest shows a slightly mild-er blip around the 7th then heads back down again,thats a plus from the earlier ens.

ens_image.thumb.png.b8a7b51c5a3eab9f9ea2c85f30994edf.png

later's.

@kumquat,yes i did and it is worth watching.

 

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

What have I missed? 

Just heard there's going to be a SSW, and apparently there's some kind of virus been going around...

Ok, poor taste and failed attempts at humour aside....

Great model watching today. Pleasantly surprised. 

My money is on UKMO and GFSP to be leading the pack, some great consistency in the later. 

Anyone frustrated by ecm in FI, I suspect it's playing catch up. 

Next week seems a potential upgrade already (well it hasn't happened yet, has it!?). 

In reality, beyond 144? Who knows, and beyond that, roll the dice and sit back to see where the winds might blow. 

Apologies and thoughts to anyone affected by covid, either directly or indirectly. I hope 2021 is kinder to you, and us all. 

See you bright and early for the 00z....

I've not had a drink since March 2007, so hopefully someone will have one or two for me tonight, please drink responsibly

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

I keep on coming back ha! ha!

day ten mean,...

gensnh-31-1-240.thumb.png.ccd3a40fb595b8c7d4f6d8478f69fd4c.pnggensnh-31-0-240.thumb.png.b1bbe92ac4986677a85e9c72db8077a8.png

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Happy New Year all. I'm going to take a break. See you all in a year.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

What have I missed? 

Just heard there's going to be a SSW, and apparently there's some kind of virus been going around...

Ok, poor taste and failed attempts at humour aside....

Great model watching today. Pleasantly surprised. 

My money is on UKMO and GFSP to be leading the pack, some great consistency in the later. 

Anyone frustrated by ecm in FI, I suspect it's playing catch up. 

Next week seems a potential upgrade already (well it hasn't happened yet, has it!?). 

In reality, beyond 144? Who knows, and beyond that, roll the dice and sit back to see where the winds might blow. 

Apologies and thoughts to anyone affected by covid, either directly or indirectly. I hope 2021 is kinder to you, and us all. 

See you bright and early for the 00z....

I've not had a drink since March 2007, so hopefully someone will have one or two for me tonight, please drink responsibly

Oh @Griff,nice post mate and i will have plenty of's on you,take care mate and happy new year

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

My final post of 2020 is this absolute stonker of a chart from p30 with a deep low sinking south across the country with -12C uppers giving blizzards to many. Ending a terrible year on a high, Happy New Year to everyone once again!

1EB731C2-2A47-4BF9-B901-CB1128F90E49.thumb.png.9aeec41f00243a0b5433add8ac142c7e.png1EAA005F-421C-4DC0-8D44-CF4828E2D53C.thumb.png.0786d37eb699c338018cb2b6f2b5ad8f.png

 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
Just now, Zak M said:

Happy New Year all. I'm going to take a break. See you all in a year.

In a year

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

ny-122.thumb.gif.b592cf7afc2fafe502155db581df8280.gif

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
53 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

This really is a very disappointing temperature profile return on a regime like this for the first half of January

image.thumb.png.17632635bb71d5f5b43fca355297d180.png

 spacer.png

 

Basically a competition in the past few days on the most wintry synoptics possible without widespread snowfall. Happy New Year everyone

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