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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Washer streamer straight into leicester!!!!saw this coming after the ecm and ukmo this evening!!!

Thames streamer looks like it's also well and truly up and running. 

Edited by NewEra21
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Low between Greenland and Iceland has completely disappeared this run.. was that not going to be the trigger low.

image.thumb.png.82098cd7b0c23f1988fa1a1237245a9a.png

If the low over Svelbard drops South, we'll get the motherboard!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs and it's brother look to hit the UK dead on,what after?

gfsnh-0-156.thumb.png.bafbd93f977aee807c1eec6052dd12f7.pnggfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.92a28b6ac0270b1c159aebd7f9c66880.png

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Paul said:

I decided to the winter tyres fitted to the car early next week, if the 18z is to be believed, it was a good call!

Oh you’ve jinxed it now!

Get a grip . . .

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
3 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Thames streamer also looks like it's also well and truly up and running. 

Not much accumulating though

image.thumb.png.d88530dda1b956cedb2143078c4a294c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, Paul said:

I decided to the winter tyres fitted to the car early next week, if the 18z is to be believed, it was a good call!

Is that a ramp Paul☺️

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Yes.. but this time yesterday it was all rain.. 

True.. It'll be nice to see it falling at least.

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Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Not much accumulating though

image.thumb.png.d88530dda1b956cedb2143078c4a294c.png

Models always seem to underplay and struggle with convective snowfall and streamers tbf.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
51 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Not really mate it's all the wrong colours

Half way through a party but couldn't resist... Lovely UKMO and plenty to be excited about.. And just thought I would share these from Matt H on twitter... Its nearly 12 folks... Don't get going back on those New Year Resolutions...

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UW144-21.gif

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Thery're the same model.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The low is filling/disrupting on the Parra at 192,should be a good run from there.

gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.bdedc5ed8fff91471769b110db8f454d.png

the gfs is also good at 186.

gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.138d81d5f0c76220c63d1cd96a0ca636.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

Models always seem to underplay and struggle with convective snowfall and streamers tbf.

Not all models, but that sort of stuff is definitely best left to the shorter range hi-res models.  

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Just now, NewEra21 said:

Models always seem to underplay and struggle with convective snowfall and streamers tbf.

Do they?

We might get temporary cover on higher ground anyway

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The low is filling/disrupting on the Parra at 192,should be a good run from there.

gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.bdedc5ed8fff91471769b110db8f454d.png

the gfs is also good at 186.

gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.138d81d5f0c76220c63d1cd96a0ca636.png

 

As long as that Atlantic HP stands firm and acts as a block between the upstream LP and our LP, everything is good.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Just now, CreweCold said:

As long as that Atlantic HP stands firm and acts as a block between the upstream LP and our LP, everything is good.

My concern(on this run)is the med,there is some warm uppers down there.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Good Evening.  Next week early on looks great for snow streaming across from the North Sea for Southern Britain. All I can say is this will be a Winter to remember! PS Happy New Year...!

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