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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

If the ECM evolution plays out, I think it'll be one of the most drawn out let downs of the NW era. A true kick in the goolies.

I can't even see a a quick route back to cold from D10, it would waste a few days of peak winter shuffling that pattern into something more conducive. Such fine margins on this and I wish that op run hadn't just happened.

So just from one run Crewe would you say that outlook doesn't appear as good for cold prospective as before?I said it before we always seem to be chasing day 9/10 charts

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, vizzy2004 said:

Anyone know if there is an 18z GFS this evening? A night off maybe?

I have just checked,it usually starts at 21:30

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

So just from one run Crewe would you say that outlook doesn't appear as good for cold prospective as before?I said it before we always seem to be chasing day 9/10 charts

and like a Microsoft minute, day 9 never comes 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, georgiedre said:

Sorry mods This was posted on twitter and I think it relevant for the model thread but unsure if it has any credibility 

Screenshot_20201231-202242_Chrome.jpg

Not really mate it's all the wrong colours

Half way through a party but couldn't resist... Lovely UKMO and plenty to be excited about.. And just thought I would share these from Matt H on twitter... Its nearly 12 folks... Don't get going back on those New Year Resolutions...

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

Eql8T-wW8AAWg9y.jpeg

Eql8T-3XAAA5OSN.jpeg

Eql8T-1XUAEPz_7.jpeg

Eql8T-4WMAA9W99.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

We can’t enter 2021 until the pub run rolls out, a sign that 2020 is literally never going to end is it.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

The gfs 18z is rolling now

Looks good...

gfsnh-0-6.thumb.png.f638a0a174c5aabecdf22bd82a34a1e6.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The 18z gfs/p is running OK.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

only upto +12

Yer very slowly dribbling out . Must be an ice cold run coming

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Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
4 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

The turd that is the CFS currently similar at 120z to other outputs but drops the trough to the north over us (again) and fills in situ, so no easterly.

cfs-0-114.png

cfs-0-240.png

CFS is not designed as a model to accurately model the next few weeks.  The point is to let it run out into the far distance in order to spot any strong long run trends. It did pretty well with spotting the colder than normal synoptics for late December. Not to say it has Nostradamus like predictive abilities. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 minute ago, Trom said:

CFS is not designed as a model to accurately model the next few weeks.  The point is to let it run out into the far distance in order to spot any strong long run trends. It did pretty well with spotting the colder than normal synoptics for late December. Not to say it has Nostradamus like predictive abilities. 

Well you have a 1 monthly which must be a higher resolution (which this is taken from) than the 9 monthly which must be used for trends...I followed the 1 monthly in late Autumn and showed no such output for this December but largely +NAO

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS upgrades the eastern cold pool T48 Also weakens the mediterranean 'finger'

Is it worth taking note of Steve?.

The pub run. Nearly always fodder most say on here.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

The para coming out first is not good for my OCD. Here is the 72 850 temps for the regular GFS. A little bit colder than the 12z run for same time.

 

gfs-1-72 (1).png

Was gona say the exact same thing!!prefer the normal op to come out first!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

slightly further South, hopefully trending towards UKMO, looks okay surely Sunday night for snaw?

gfs-1-78.png?18

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, joggs said:

Is it worth taking note of Steve?.

The pub run. Nearly always fodder most say on here.

What!!!,...at 48 hrs

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