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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

That evolution in regards to the uppers between 72 and 96 hours doesnt look right to me!!flick through it guys and am telling you the uppers should have been colder especially with what happenrd at 120 hours

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7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I really think this upcoming easterly is a starter course. It's part of a continued pattern producing largely the same outcome. For the most part uppers of -6C would be marginal below 275-325m, under this altitude -6C uppers would produce surface temps of 2/3C so largely dependent on precip intensity / nocturnal cooling.

Uppers of -7/-8 would produce snow to city level which is modelled to occur for a short period with increasing support.

This support for colder uppers occurring as the time frame of 4th-6th Jan comes into the high resolution time frame in which modelling of cold wave development in flows is done much better. I.e., a better grip of short term effects.

Hi buddy what we saying 1c is worth in uppers then - 150-200M - thats what I gave it.

GFS had a surface freezing level of 100-150M in -8c air the other day ( forecast ) & 575M ish in -5.5 Air

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The ECM,UKMO and gfs at 144

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.b567a556d368b767e565738559d21251.gifUN144-21.thumb.gif.3f6d83c7211286ae51f64691314234b8.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.7c87728fff97abc297348aeb8a1f84f8.png

pretty good agreement really,now we need the next phase nailed on,how will this trough drop down from the north?

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144 ... moving air masses:

3600DA7B-66AF-47F3-90C9-2C6E60C68508.thumb.jpeg.6bb2649c49b2d9dcd18b66f83d810284.jpeg

I do love these periods of rare synoptics when you wonder what exactly is going to happen next!

Beats relentless Winter zonality for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

That evolution in regards to the uppers between 72 and 96 hours doesnt look right to me!!flick through it guys and am telling you the uppers should have been colder especially with what happenrd at 120 hours

setup is further south, like UKMO, colder uppers from north by Tues, wanna see this on 18Z GFS

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

YES!!!! Smashing refresh on those precip type charts.....if it shows rain with those uppers and DPs the phone is going out the window and I’m taking up train spotting ! 

It's the maritime layer that's causing the issue. SSTs. So whilst the uppers are snow conducive, it's milder from 0m to 300m. The mild layer is modelled to be mixed out with uppers below -8C, which would negate the maritime layer & produce snow at 0m asl. The maritime layer is also mixed out inlandwards, so >15 miles inland and uppers of -6.5 may be ample for snow. So, near the coast or at city level, -8 or heavy precip is required in this set up.

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM,UKMO and gfs at 144

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.b567a556d368b767e565738559d21251.gifUN144-21.thumb.gif.3f6d83c7211286ae51f64691314234b8.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.7c87728fff97abc297348aeb8a1f84f8.png

pretty good agreement really,now we need the next phase nailed on,how will this trough drop down from the north?

All of them also showing hints of the Russian high retrogressing

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

YES!!!! Smashing refresh on those precip type charts.....if it shows rain with those uppers and DPs the phone is going out the window and I’m taking up train spotting ! 

They’re not consistently supportive but it’s a start from all rain, hints of Kent streamer Tuesday night.

CF1F4C9F-D73D-4908-944F-170F056D72C1.thumb.png.4620167215f691f8648e2c9c86ac0b02.pngAAB5E8FB-FF3B-4EBB-8B21-89B5D26F5DC8.thumb.png.b92791f9efe1a41a8e1ac578e9080620.png90E4C38D-7B0B-439C-AF3F-78E80C4BE7F9.thumb.png.5ca8429442cda6d808798c99a037b159.png

 

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM,UKMO and gfs at 144

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.b567a556d368b767e565738559d21251.gifUN144-21.thumb.gif.3f6d83c7211286ae51f64691314234b8.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.7c87728fff97abc297348aeb8a1f84f8.png

pretty good agreement really,now we need the next phase nailed on,how will this trough drop down from the north?

lets hope they verify @ 96 

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi buddy what we saying 1c is worth in uppers then - 150-200M - thats what I gave it.

GFS had a surface freezing level of 100-150M in -8c air the other day ( forecast ) & 575M ish in -5.5 Air

Time for Boom!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

image.thumb.gif.d6f6d714c487d80b3e3b169e68fb4278.gif
 

t168 Armaggeddon incoming....Is THIS the Winter of Discontent 

BFTP

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

ECM at 192

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.ac2b55704fae8bd385af6a4704c35553.gifECH0-192.thumb.gif.d8217d2d7ee6d201178ac9714e19bce5.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

image.thumb.gif.d6f6d714c487d80b3e3b169e68fb4278.gif
 

t168 Armaggeddon incoming....Is THIS the Winter of Discontent 

BFTP

The second WoD in the space of only three years? :drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
23 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think I've found why we're having so much trouble getting snow modelled on an easterly - check out the SST anomalies over the Baltics - 3 or 4C above normal, and no ice cover. 

WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV

The Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is part of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). NESDIS is part of the National Oceanic and...

Trace most of the windflows for next week and they come straight over not only the North Sea but the Baltics also. 

ARPEGE gives snow throughout Germany/Poland early next week except on north coasts, so no probs with dew points if winds come from there.

Study ensembles with less Baltic influence and I bet they'll have better dew points.

Next week  St Petersburg  temperatures-5 -6 -7c max so the baltic sea won't be unfrozen for long.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Nice ⛄

1AD161F6-E62E-4E41-8A2E-27F7BE9B0C31.png

8479F5FF-5067-4F15-AE8E-C62F73A4160C.png

It's actually quite a dicey chart- need more heights pushing up past the W of Greenland, otherwise the troughing will merge with the low coming off the ESB and heights will rise to our SW with the jet riding over the top.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The shortwave moving sw from Greenland is a problem. You don’t want that phasing with the shortwave in the mid Atlantic .

 

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