Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Zak M]

Anyone seen perturbation 26?

   

-15/-16c 850s for the majority of the country at day 10. Absolutely ridiculous chart.

Edited December 31, 2020 by Zak M

[Notty]

ECM is rolling 

[sheikhy]

Ecm coming out is it gona look like the gfs or ukmo or is it gona be a let down and look like the last few runs early on?

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Anyone seen perturbation 26?

   

-15/-16c 850s for the majority of the country at day 10. Absolutely ridiculous chart.

@feb1991blizzardwill love that cobra purb

[Tim Bland]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Anyone seen perturbation 26?

   

-15/-16c 850s for the majority of the country at day 10. Absolutely ridiculous chart.

Absolute filth !!!  

praying for a 1-2c drop on the DPs from the ECM for the first half of next week. I’ll either be posting snow charts in 40 mins or I’ll just stay quiet and sulk in private tonight

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Notty said:

ECM is rolling 

hopefully towards GEM/UKMO

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hopefully towards GEM/UKMO

Well 72 hours is coming out in the next few seconds!!!if we get a whole load of posts then you know its finally caught on!!if not then you.know its gone tits up again lol

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

@feb1991blizzardwill love that cobra purb

Its also very unusual from a Northerly to get those uppers over Southern UK - might be quite dry in Central parts due to wishbone effect which is at its strongest at this time of year, but i am guessing there might be clear skies also, so you would be looking at an extreme frost.

[Kasim Awan]

The upcoming pattern 160-240h is another wave break, one of a round of many. This wave break is modified with an easterly component due to the strong signal for amplification.

As amplification occurs & the wave is broken, the trough energy is shunted south east and breaks the ridging across the UK at 160h. The trough energy is then pushed south east & adds to the Europen cold pool in the process of trough disruption. The trend for increasimg blocking assures that this secondary wave of polar injection takes on an increasingly easterly basis. This produces increasingly wintry surface conditions in the UK.

A completely logical situation & GEM today is very clean with this evolution.

[XtremeUKWeather]

+72hrs

[Notty]

T+96

UK Met 12z - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=96&carte=1021

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Météociel propose le modèle UKMO à maille moyenne (1.25 degrés) jusqu'à 144h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures à tous les niveaux

 

ECM 12z - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=96&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

 

Looking Good

Edited December 31, 2020 by Notty
Repaired links (I hope)

[Kasim Awan]

So in this outcome modelled with reasonable confidence, expect increasingly abnormal surface conditions to develop.

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

So in this outcome modelled with reasonable confidence, expect increasingly abnormal surface conditions to develop.

Sorry mate but what does "increasingly abnormal surface conditions" mean?

Edited December 31, 2020 by AWD

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Notty said:

T+96

UK Met 12z - 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Météociel propose le modèle UKMO à maille moyenne (1.25 degrés) jusqu'à 144h. Cartes de prévision des précipitations, du vent, des températures à tous les niveaux

 

ECK 12z - 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

 

Looking Good

The links are broken 

[Mike Poole]

ECM and UKMO very similar at T96:

[warrenb]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

Sorry mate but what does "increasingly abnormal surface conditions" mean?

Quick sand and sinking mud 

[Laurence Hill]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

Sorry mate but what is "increasingly abnormal surface conditions" mean?

Bloody cold

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

Sorry mate but what does "increasingly abnormal surface conditions" mean?

Sorry, unusually colder than average

[SMU]

ECM 24 hour change from 96 >72 trends towards the UKMO kink rather than the bend.

 

New charts first

[Man With Beard]

I think I've found why we're having so much trouble getting snow modelled on an easterly - check out the SST anomalies over the Baltics - 3 or 4C above normal, and no ice cover. 

Current Operational SST Anomaly Charts - OSPO

WWW.OSPO.NOAA.GOV

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The Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is part of the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). NESDIS is part of the National Oceanic and...

Trace most of the windflows for next week and they come straight over not only the North Sea but the Baltics also. 

ARPEGE gives snow throughout Germany/Poland early next week except on north coasts, so no probs with dew points if winds come from there.

Study ensembles with less Baltic influence and I bet they'll have better dew points.

[Notty]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

The links are broken 

Hopefully repaired now thanks

[I remember Atlantic 252]

maybe wrong but monday looks pants away from the north? wet Staffordshire, snowy Scotland

[Tim Bland]

Upper seem a bit higher at -5 rather than -7 at t96 but perhaps we would sacrifice that if it mean lower DP? Will have to wait a bit longer for that detail 

[Kentspur]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM and UKMO very similar at T96:

Would that slacker flow towards the South/east atleast mean less mild air drawn up from the Med in the ENE flow than UKMO?

Edited December 31, 2020 by Kentspur

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

maybe wrong but monday looks pants away from the north? wet Staffordshire, snowy Scotland

I think ECM is slowly correcting to the Ukmo solution like gem did earlier.