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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
8 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looking at the d8 gefs, and it is clear, that period and onwards has FI entropy:

gens_panel_osd2.png

No clear way forward yet, and although I suspect the gfs op may lead towards the ecm ridge, after d9 there are too many power plays to know where the pieces will fit. A few runs more to try and find a path?

Nothing exciting re cold or snow in London on the short ens:

850's>graphe3_00000_303.111328125_148.18936157226562___.thumb.png.91cd7ac968d42bb2330907e177539462.png 2m temps>graphe6_00000_303.111328125_148.18936157226562___.thumb.png.6a1a6beffab1feb3353bd0aaaf2c8479.png

 

Thank you IDO I had hoped we could have improved overnight removing more of the warmer air mixing the easterly.. little steps are not enough and those spaghetti plots are too tight on the wrong side for it to flip into a favour.. if I could see a few outliers supportive we might have had some interest into the 12z but we are even that close with those 4s and 5s next week.

now onto the next chase. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
3 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Mean just touching -7 on the 4th then back up to about -5 after that. Could really do with that dipping a bit further to increase snow chances next week. Still time.

Indeed, you can see the op is a little above mean from 3rd to 5th.. definitely still in the game for snow showers

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
16 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looking at the d8 gefs, and it is clear, that period and onwards has FI entropy:

gens_panel_osd2.png

No clear way forward yet, and although I suspect the gfs op may lead towards the ecm ridge, after d9 there are too many power plays to know where the pieces will fit. A few runs more to try and find a path?

Nothing exciting re cold or snow in London on the short ens:

850's>graphe3_00000_303.111328125_148.18936157226562___.thumb.png.91cd7ac968d42bb2330907e177539462.png 2m temps>graphe6_00000_303.111328125_148.18936157226562___.thumb.png.6a1a6beffab1feb3353bd0aaaf2c8479.png

 

What is really noticeable, and to me unusual, is the degree of conformity, if that is the correct word, in the plots.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

would say about a 9 hour snow window on 6Z GFS, hopefully heavy precip timed for 9am Sun to 00 Mon, can see less favourable setup from around 3am

hgt500-1000.pnghgt500-1000.png

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

A definite trend away from cold and snowy nirvana charts over the last 24 hrs, a 10 day ECM chart (unlikely to verify) doesn’t really cut the mustard.

Hopefully the SSW will reap the rewards further down the line for coldies. It does very much feel like it’s on to the next chase now.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

So I'm thinking people are jumping the gun post 144-160 hrs tbh. It's often said on the nhp that any output can improve or go down the toilet. Obv atm there's nothing on a west to east flow which itself should tell you things are in a good place. 850s, dew points atm in fi are out of the window. Look longer term and look at the tpv and where it's heading. Reverse in zonal winds ie ssw will take time but in the meen time the outlook looks OK be it marginal from the east 850s wise. Short term marginal, long term imo smashing,

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Just now, weathercold said:

A definite trend away from cold and snowy nirvana charts over the last 24 hrs, a 10 day ECM chart (unlikely to verify) doesn’t really cut the mustard.

Hopefully the SSW will reap the rewards further down the line for coldies. It does very much feel like it’s on to the next chase now.

Yes but the 144 hr ukmo still provides decent prospects. Give it time man be ok

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

What is really noticeable, and to me unusual, is the degree of conformity, if that is the correct word, in the plots.

Yes, agree, the long-wave pattern has greater than average uniformity, it is the ebb and flow that will dictate the way forward after this period and although a general consensus for the current pattern to slowly erode, I certainly would not be calling anything post-d8 for UK surface conditions, especially with the background variables and a NH pattern change?

d11 spread 06z> gensnh-32-1-264.thumb.png.12cc7e712b7055e347f6b71866056f62.png

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

If there’s one thing I’m more relaxed about, is that time is on our side this time around. The BFTE on the other hand, we were on borrowed time to get it right, as it was right at the end of February. As great as it was, snow amounts and local cold pooling was far stretched, as you could even feel the sun almost day by day gaining ever more strength. 

Weve got the whole of January and February ahead of us yet. A Feb 1991 setup would be brilliant. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

What is really noticeable, and to me unusual, is the degree of conformity, if that is the correct word, in the plots.

Yes John many many variables there, Shannon is in the house...

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37 minutes ago, MKN said:

You pick a chart at +312 hours from perturbation 19 of the gfs ensembles to back up we are definitely heading into the freezer. Bit misleading and at such range wont verify. 

Sorry, somehow I ended up replying to the wrong post! oops! haha, I didn't sleep well last night! ha



Thats a now out of date run and you are using a random perturbation. If you make forecasts using this method im afraid you will end up on the worst side of wrong many times before the winter is out  
Best use the operational run and then see how many ensembles and/or other models back it up
 

 

Edited by Island Visions
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Roll on next week I say. These for Central Northern England. 

image.thumb.png.d586b025addc2656c4857a9c404155cf.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Just await further developments folks before getting to carried away,there are lots of changes soon to be cropping up...the current runs don't even have a take on this yet. I keep saying..expect upgrades and downgrades in the sort term...nothing as changed.

The Vortex just wants to say...I've not been able to rest all Winter...you guys on Netweather have kicked my ar@e from pillar to post...I was Happy In Greenland,now I've been uprooted to god knows where...im not happy,I'm on foreign soil I just can't rest....please and heaven forbid,will somebody just land me a knockout blow...I promise I won't make the bell...I've had enough..

gensnh-2-1-192.png

gensnh-4-1-192.png

gensnh-5-1-192.png

gensnh-9-1-192.png

gensnh-11-1-192.png

giphy-1.gif

Quite tiring matt, it's not even January yet

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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire

Hoping we see some improvements in the T144+ range that we can actually bring closer to T0 without being watered down. The upcoming easterly initially promised some hope of snow showers to my area. Now it’s looking incredibly marginal with sleet more likely as the GFS has trended warmer rather than colder with T850s. Yet again we’re now looking at D7-10. 

Really pleased for all of you who’ve had some snow so far (I’ve had none and last winter was incredibly poor too) but is it too much to ask that an easterly in January brings some low level snow?! I’m probably just being too impatient and need to wait to see what the SSW brings us! Either way, wishing all of you the best for 2021. 

Edited by Cold Winter
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Observing with every new run with ECM it is a little bit colder with surface conditions. Take London.

12z 29th

844E9BC0-3688-4706-A97D-36A2BB1C6533.thumb.png.49583e44aa5e128ae883d5738925182d.png

12z 30th

7B08D8BE-370B-4092-B90A-6311F951DEB4.thumb.png.ce90059da567d1d9f227bb40c315a2aa.png

00z 31st

B40021D7-EA1C-4809-8BB3-FFFC1C307506.thumb.png.af8ce2ae90de3c98ad59d1e8416f4a70.png

This is very normal to see for things to trend colder closer to time. Given ECM is mildest at the moment with easterly it doesn’t require a huge shift, it probably is overdoing the dews as well notably how far inland they penetrate.

 

On the face of it 2m temps and t850s are conducive for snow but even on the GEFS you can see how a few degrees drop in Dew points is needed to turn that rain into snow...

9B15B663-4543-4E17-B151-8CC14634E839.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl

Just a quick one, particularly to amateuermet1963, dont give up. I am in my sixties and have been interested in the weather all my life and often just love reading the posts when something more out of the ordinary might happen. I admire the work that many take time  to show all these  maps and graphs etc .... a bit of it is a little out of my depth though.

My general thoughts:

We have been very very lucky that for the last 2 or 3 weeks we have had northerlies, north easterlies and easterlies but because of the warmer waters and warmer Northern Europe they have been watered down before reaching our shores. I feel the only way of getting what we want (proper snow) is for a huge area of minus10 or more to be exported from far Northern Hemisphere and be therefore still be strong enough when it reaches our islands , and even though quite a few  of the runs have shown this, I have yet to see anything like this area reaching us within 3 days, only occasionally strips of minus 10 just about reaching Northern Scotland.

I know its been one of the longest spells of below average temperatures for a few years but severe cold it has not been. It is such a shame as we are now in the best part of the winter with such short days and to have snow now, that once settled,  to be down for quite a while..... and the clock is ticking

I know this seems a bit pessimistic but its just what i see. i do really hope a SSW does the trick for us and if we get the rewards from this, and being  in January or early Febuary it could be something special.

I will keeping reading and will be looking to the north and northeast parts of the charts with fingers crossed.

Its not really a model post but hope this one is Ok

Happy New Year to all

Ps Does anyone know what happened to Beast From The East. He used to post regularly in winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

Just a quick one, particularly to amateuermet1963, dont give up. I am in my sixties and have been interested in the weather all my life and often just love reading the posts when something more out of the ordinary might happen. I admire the work that many take time  to show all these  maps and graphs etc .... a bit of it is a little out of my depth though.

My general thoughts:

We have been very very lucky that for the last 2 or 3 weeks we have had northerlies, north easterlies and easterlies but because of the warmer waters and warmer Northern Europe they have been watered down before reaching our shores. I feel the only way of getting what we want (proper snow) is for a huge area of minus10 or more to be exported from far Northern Hemisphere and be therefore still be strong enough when it reaches our islands , and even though quite a few  of the runs have shown this, I have yet to see anything like this area reaching us within 3 days, only occasionally strips of minus 10 just about reaching Northern Scotland.

I know its been one of the longest spells of below average temperatures for a few years but severe cold it has not been. It is such a shame as we are now in the best part of the winter with such short days and to have snow now, that once settled,  to be down for quite a while..... and the clock is ticking

I know this seems a bit pessimistic but its just what i see. i do really hope a SSW does the trick for us and if we get the rewards from this, and being  in January or early Febuary it could be something special.

I will keeping reading and will be looking to the north and northeast parts of the charts with fingers crossed.

Its not really a model post but hope this one is Ok

Happy New Year to all

Ps Does anyone know what happened to Beast From The East. He used to post regularly in winter.

Assome you mean THE EYE IN THE SKY or more recently as @TEITS

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Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire 200m asl

 

Thanks

Thats the guy . THE EYE IN THE  SKY  . I think he had some health problems. He was always hoping for a beast from the east,,, i just luv reading his posts

Edited by Derbyshire Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

The easterly is starting to look how I feared, just simply not cold enough away from higher ground, its depressing too hear Matt Taylor saying slightly less cold air from the east in January so next week will feel cold and raw but with little reward. 

Going forward, yet again im seeing runs that has scraps of cold air, maybe hints the continent will get a bit more colder though but come on, its January and it's a blocked weather pattern, it's the least we should expect. Personally I think there is far too much high pressure and very little cold troughing, deep cold still looks a long way off imo.

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Don't give in mate, there are loads of excellent knowledgeable folks on here who will learn you loads just by following there posts...And there are some who will be happy to answer your questions via PM..Many of us are still learning,and its what is partof the excitement of weather...we learn something new everyday..There is also a great learning Forum on this site,and worth checking out...stick with it,you will only improve.. Happy New Year to you.

Hi even meteorologist don’t know everything about weather,you stick with it and enjoy the up and downs 

of this great site,and don’t worry some of us think we know what the weather will do but sooner than later

that is put right.KEEP WITH IT.

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