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Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year


Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

The mean stays pretty solid ,and the ens remain pretty cold.. im not to stressed over this output currently though,because I'm expecting to see dramatic changes in the next 10 days or so.

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-192.gif

EDM1-216.gif

EDM1-240.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM0-216.gif

EDM0-240.gif

graphe0_00_270_91___.png

AggravatingEnlightenedHorseshoecrab-small.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yep, but we’ve known it was Jan 5th for some time now! 

I am so looking forward to see what happens, the build up to this has equalled that before the 2018 SSW, it isn’t just about the actual sudden warming in the strat, all we are experiencing and the models are showing are related to the upcoming SSW event.  It would be a mistake to just look at the strat data alone, this winter is unusual by every measuring stick!  

Yes Mike that’s true but that will not stop every body focusing on the stratosphere/troposphere.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
11 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Great answers - thanks and also to Scott. 

Your welcome.

If you have any others so as to not clog up the board i dont mind you private messaging me. Im sure Kasim would be the same. In Fact i know he would because he has an exceptional understanding of snowfall parameters at short range and ive picked up a lot already from him over private chat

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
25 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

No point looking beyond D7 now. There are too many potential interacting pieces at D8 and D9. Could go a number of ways, though, if there is an attempt to displace cold, I'd be very surprised if it weren't snowy at first.

Still can't get my head around these rainy easterlies from ECM. I'll shave my beard off if there's no snow from an easterly at this time of year

Source of the air next week from the Med coming around the low pressure,the BFTE the air from Siberia the met 10 day trend explains it well,just our luck ,but not far away from decent snow,only take a slight change in set-up next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks

Last winter we were seeing charts like this in “La La Land” if at all! Most of us would have sold our soul for a flurry let alone what could potentially be on offer over the next month or so! 
For me the signals are there for a winter of epic proportions but unfortunately due the location of our little rock it could also fall flat on its face.... and that ladies and gentlemen is why we do this to ourselves every winter!!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
17 minutes ago, stodge said:

I wish you'd told me this before I started doing my nightly analysis !!

I do agree the degree of uncertainty from T+144 to T+240 in particular is very high tonight. A couple of days ago it was all about LP moving up from the south and interacting with the cold block but now it's become more complex with LP coming down from the north and phasing with the European trough over the British Isles.

I really don't know tonight.

Lol.I think the air of uncertainty for next week seems to be a theme in this evening's discussions.Anyway you have done a sterling jobin your summing up of the models.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
20 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

I like this EC at 240.
Heights growing over Svalbard, heights beginning to drop over Kazakhstan.

EC-240 30dec.png

That’s a great place to be headed towards mid jan 

19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Those charts are as much use as tits on a fish - there would be plenty of snow about with that chart surely - especially on the higher ground!! 

I’m just giving you the data .....the model knows where the hills are - Dp’s are simply way too high for snowfall!  Again I’ll say it - the model is highly complex - it says it won’t snow based on that particular run with that particular data. Now if the data varies a bit come next week then we could end up digging ourselves out but that’s not what the ec 12 op shows today.  I can’t tell you what might happen based on the data because the model has already done the actual calcs! 
 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
19 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Usually with great cold spells, there is a role for North America. Low heights over the Hudson Bay, reinforcing a Greenland/Iceland High.

It's odd to see nothing happening upstream on ECM, GFS, GFSP day 7-10.
I can't recall charts that have shown such fairly strong hights all over the USA, Canada AND the Atlantic. It's as if the weather in that part of the NH has been switched off. Looks weird to me.

Do we have historic examples of similar situations?

EC-240 30dec-2.png

Thats what i dont get as well? Very puzzling. Its like vortex has shrunk and only appears to the eastern side of the hemisphere.

It will be difficult for it to really get going after this. Theres not even a whiff of any strong depressions either for that matter. Usually it would be prefered to see a weak/moderate sharp vertical form of vortex  to west of greenland to stop any block become too west based to benefit us well in these cold scenarios. 

Judging by the way this pattern seems to be developing and data been churned out, I don't see a route to anything other than cold/very cold for eastern side of the northern hemisphere. Its just oozing so much potential to me. 

Bet those keen American watchers who are cold enthusiasts are sitting there feeling a bit how we did last winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I think that is a good ECM mean to be fair.

anim_afw9.thumb.gif.24070d0b0aba71a6984f232b1757fb86.gifanim_vot6.thumb.gif.f43e51a21eb906cd2db31c0c7bbe4694.gifanim_bcu5.thumb.gif.b6034221fc4bcae73b6682595f40fd01.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
37 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM ensembles.  Well where do you start:

T168:

6B2752A7-AC21-43F6-8DF8-066AE350899A.thumb.png.8dec2df42ad445efd5c42fddb63f27cc.png

That’s the GFS op solution boiled then, that won’t happen - good!

T192:

3AA53CC0-4586-4AF6-89C1-CCA94AFD6D9B.thumb.png.fb6eebc241fbf036240f4ef3628b460f.png

The dying cat vortex analogy very much holds here.

T240:

E173580B-D02B-4D0C-BCDD-2ACFFA2CFE35.thumb.png.4b70a8c921303efe6f0580c398e5d9b0.png

Will it now get through to people that there is no rubbish weather, none at all, coming off the Atlantic, or from the USA, or from a ‘west-based -NAO’.  

Regards to everyone

Mike

 

Just where has the atlantic gone? Infact theres nothing there to fuel any systems over america and to the atlantic for that matter. It all looks very unusual and be hard to find an example to compare similar events in the past. All before an SSW and EAMT event has occured and had an impact?

Edited by Snowjokes92
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s a great place to be headed towards mid jan 

I’m just giving you the data .....the model knows where the hills are - Dp’s are simply way too high for snowfall!  Again I’ll say it - the model is highly complex - it says it won’t snow based on that particular run with that particular data. Now if the data varies a bit come next week then we could end up digging ourselves out but that’s not what the ec 12 op shows today.  I can’t tell you what might happen based on the data because the model has already done the actual calcs! 
 

 

Dews have to be related to those God damn heights across SE Europe.

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters ~T192 to T240:

74A857A2-E756-4DA7-A298-CD189A9796C6.thumb.png.9ba457391469bec22d7674500e4b51bd.png

Realistically, coldies, would you turf any one of them out of bed for farting?  

Dunno - I’d need to check the dew points

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That’s a great place to be headed towards mid jan 

I’m just giving you the data .....the model knows where the hills are - Dp’s are simply way too high for snowfall!  Again I’ll say it - the model is highly complex - it says it won’t snow based on that particular run with that particular data. Now if the data varies a bit come next week then we could end up digging ourselves out but that’s not what the ec 12 op shows today.  I can’t tell you what might happen based on the data because the model has already done the actual calcs! 
 

 

What are the extended eps like Nick please ? 

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

This winter is like an evening when the wife goes to bed early

you get all excited for the first hour cramming in drink and tv films and computer. 
then you think oh maybe I should just relax now as all them things are not as good as they look. 
then about 11 you get your game face on and the night looks rosey again.

its coming

i think the pub run will start to show and definitely tomorrow’s

runs

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its a sorry state of affairs when a beautiful Easterly returns positive dews..

So cruel for coldies.

You just couldn't make our luck up 

Well if it wasnt for bad luck we'd have no luck at all !

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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I have been banging on about this for a good few days now, there is no weather upstream - none - it could be summer in terms of the upstream pressure patterns and it is right weird.  Which is why I think this winter will really get going soon and be memorable.  If it isn’t I’ll ditch this hobby, , on the grounds that I’m rubbish at it - but we’ll see...

I 100% agree with you there. It isnt normal whatsoever, at least on that scale. Theres a hell of a lot of blocking that side and lower heights on this side with main vortex on are side. I know which one i prefer either way! The longer those block over america and the atlantic stay hold, the harder it will be to shift and have a firm imprint on the weather there. The polar vortex will have a big fight on its hand i think if it tries to reform there, particularly if we lock into a significant cold pattern.

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

The easterly next week is conducive for snow inland above 100m with uppers of -7, 20-100m at -7.5 and coast under -7.8 ish. Heights higher and this easterly will have a largely adiabatic dew point profile, i.e. a lack of inverted cold surface dew points due to the North Sea run. Surface snow conditions here depends largely on precip intensity

47 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

My judgement is that even above 100m & in the upper air temps required there would be limitating factors, snow then depends on precip being present. Given the set up on the model output this is likely to be patchy.

Sorry mate I’m confused. The 2 posts above posted 13 mins apart say different things. We were talking about the ECM run. We know it has heavy precip so that is not an issue. You started by calling the run a ‘snow Party’ but then admitted this was an IMBY post. You then said it was snow at 100m+ (1st post above) you then said it wasn’t snow at 100m +?  as BA rightly says above - the models (in this case 12z ECM)  are very complex and know where the hills are , along with all the other factors Eg DP and uppers / thickness...and they come to the conclusion that there is no snow eg on the chilterns at 200m? Perhaps you could just clarify what you believe would happen IF the ECM verified next week as shown? Ps precip amounts below ...

493B0CC0-F110-4AE4-894F-747A302B4E5A.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I have been banging on about this for a good few days now, there is no weather upstream - none - it could be summer in terms of the upstream pressure patterns and it is right weird.  Which is why I think this winter will really get going soon and be memorable.  If it isn’t I’ll ditch this hobby, , on the grounds that I’m rubbish at it - but we’ll 

But what happens if the Russian high persists and the main cold remains in situ on the furthest side of the pole? Nothing suggests these elements have to move in the foreseeable, hence rinse and repeat of faux cold even with little energy in the Atlantic. This pattern could be set for a long time. Nothing suggests to me it'll change.

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

This from weather is cool is a thing of beauty for cold weather fans

image.thumb.png.c7e57b0ee862b28422a878a5dc849535.png

Did someone decide to just switch the stratosphere off this year. That chart on the left shows quite a lot of blues and purples, especially between 10hpa and 30hpa and even the troposphere has little if any zonal wind, averaging if anything slightly easterly on average throughout.

As for the anomaly chart on the right it is a case of spot the above average spot. It is very hard to spot but there's one tiny little speck on the chart at the very bottom between 3rd and 4th January. We should be seeing a 1963 winter with these kinds of anomalies

image.thumb.png.304ea2454cd22d6257fb672f1a3abac3.png

This chart also makes very good viewing too. GFS, CFS and Bias corrected all well below average for some time to come and if this comes off then by the time we get zonal winds back up to average winter is over anyway. Looking good so we have to hope nothing else spoils it for us

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Posted
  • Location: Billingham on tees
  • Location: Billingham on tees
1 hour ago, pureasthedriven said:

Depends where you live. Not in my manor it isn’t! 

I’m guessing that your use of the term ‘manor’ indicates you live near London ?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, DCee said:

But what happens if the Russian high persists and the main cold remains in situ on the furthest side of the pole? Nothing suggests these elements have to move in the foreseeable, hence rinse and repeat of faux cold even with little energy in the Atlantic. This pattern could be set for a long time. Nothing suggests to me it'll change.

The simple answer is that if that happened we’d just get colder, slowly - home grown, if you like.  

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