Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Tim Bland]

GFS and GEM agree on the easterly brining snow showers / streamers with sleet / rain along the coast. I have the feeling it will only be marginal for coastal areas and 20 miles inland and v low elevation (under 50m) . for most it should be snow 

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS slightly colder than previous run so showers into the east are all snow. Uppers -8 / -9 

Yes ironically gfs shows snow off the easterly days 5/7.  In association with low heights and thicknesses around 520 into the southeast 

[North East Blizzard]

16 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

 

Not this old chestnut again. 

Parts of Edinburgh got two inches of settling snowfall with 850HPA temperatures of -2 to -4 the other day! @Kirkcaldy Weather already mentioned this I think - from the North Sea! 

Those snow showers even reached the West Coast of Scotland to sea level...from the North Sea! 

There are many more snow parameters than just 850HPA’s as we all know.

Let’s just see what happens rather than writing everything off five days before a potential chart becomes reality - surely as a snow/cold lover you hope for the best rather than always expecting doom/worst outcome!  

100%. I live at 270 metres above sea level in the North East and i can guarantee we do not need - 10 850's here for snow. Many places further inland with limited altitude don't either. On the coast i agree it may be that lower 850's are needed, especially when the winds are blowing in off a relatively warm sea. 

[Methuselah]

Day 5 looks interesting: SSTs; Uppers; Dew Points; combination of DPs and T850s  

    

Edited December 30, 2020 by General Cluster

[Ice Day]

It's almost getting boring (it really isn't!!!!), another stunning run incoming here.  Out to 156

  

We're starting to enter the realms of FI now, but the direction of travel at this point is clear.  

[ALL ABOARD]

Incoming.....

[Geordiesnow]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFS slightly colder than previous run so showers into the east are all snow. Uppers -8 / -9 

Yes better GFS run although I do believe it has a cold bias the longer into the output it goes however pools of - 8 air with lower thicknesses is more likely to give snow showers. The slacker the easterly, the better aswell. 

That said, the major issue is when you look at the 850hpa anaomoly charts, alot of red in Scandinavia, going to be difficult to get a much colder easterly than the GFS is showing for the time being. 

[snowblizzard]

19 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Back on the upgrades again

Perfect flow out at 96

Surely Steve, the really deep cold air over Siberia/Mongolia will not be able to feed into UK because of the massive Russian blocking High?

Edited December 30, 2020 by snowblizzard

[Tim Bland]

00z Vs 06z everything looks further west to me, slightly stronger block as well...

[Man With Beard]

Latest GFS T144 is showing nicely what I would expect from a fairly long draw easterly - rain coasts, snow further inland. Oh, and it even models a Thames streamer   

(Sorry that should be a smiley above but can't delete it )

[Purga]

First blob of -10 850hPa appearing across the channel in France, which shows how quickly cold can develop in the projected situation.

Nice to see some snow showing up for the south coast even & also Kent (Steve M)

I think we have one of the best chances of a potentially notable cold winter in many a year!

[Updated_Weather]

If the latest GFS is right, I could finally be seeing some snow soon

[Man With Beard]

however this will eventually turn less cold unless the low shifts - drawing from the med now, not a long land track

 

[Battleground Snow]

Looks like we are heading back to the quicker Northern option here. Great alternative to have!

 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

however this will eventually turn less cold unless the low shifts - drawing from the med now, not a long land track

 

Looks very temporary though, a few hrs later you can trace the air source back to Central Europe with the milder air into northern France. 

[Flake news]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

The ecm op d9-10 have been worthless of late, its usual problem, and not worth the paper it is printed on. A clear outlier statistically by d10:

As with the gefs, by d9 lots of spread (10c) for uppers so it can be assumed that there is also entropy in the ecm 0z?

I wouldn't say there's noteworthy spread on those uppers... that's why there's a noticeable dearth of excitement about the overall pattern.  We're losing sleep over "will it be -3 or -6?"  In a memorable winter spell options are more exciting than that.

[Ice Day]

I think we need to be looking north, east and south at 192!!!  Super stuff.

  

[Tim Bland]

I thought BBC  (Meteogroup) were a bit mad talking  about a low into the south bringing widespread snow later in the week. We are starting to see signs of this now though....

[Captain Shortwave]

Week 2 looking like a very tough call, a mass of heights to the north connected by two mid latitude ridges (One in the Atlantic and the other in Russia). A deep trough could drop between the two ridges, or a smaller area of cold pooling that cuts through with the high reassert of itself.

Questions that remain;

1) Will the east/north easterly be cold enough for snow showers across central and eastern areas? Answer is a maybe depending on the depth of cold to the east and the extent of low heights to the south. The GFS is a yes, Euros not so much.

2) When will we see the retrogression of heights fully towards Greenland happen? No guarantees yet on this and plenty of options on the table of low heights over the Arctic do break through and move south.

[Eskimo]

Will be a glancing blow from the northerly on this run as the high builds eastwards. Perhaps some retrogression towards scandinavia?

[Scandinavian High.]

There is a possibility significant snow in the southern England next week  possibility.

809BE9FF-277C-4F34-9924-A98BAB02ECDF.webp

[Methuselah]

Please, God: don't make us endure a classic January 1974 Biscay Snow Scupperer!

    

[Climate Man]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks very temporary though, a few hrs later you can trace the air source back to Central Europe with the milder air into northern France. 

That is minor detail at 7 days out.

[Polar Maritime]

A nice N/E flow with -11 850's into Scotland.

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Climate Man said:

That is minor detail at 7 days out.

Would be almost perfect if it could track ENE . . .