Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

[Decemberof2010]

This looks similar to P2 from the 12z

GFS 18z first then P2

Im not religious but this is St. Onker the patron saint of Boooooooooom charts

 

 

 

[That ECM]

Minus 88 for @feb1991blizzard although he probably wants it colder

[Tim Bland]

Para is getting there...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes GFS moved to UKMO Nb my chart earlier where the 0c isotherm cant suddenly go round a bend 

 

Indeed Steve, t120 to 144 shows  no impact....mild is getting squished

 

BFTP

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[WINTRY WALES]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I almost don’t want to look because it’s like reverse Santa Claus, every time we have a crazy pub run, I wake up in the morning and Krampus has been and stole my pub run  

There is a definite reoccurring theme of the model daily outputs...sober mornings, Merry afternoons followed by an all mighty hum dinger of a let loose night shift!!

[Griff]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Para is getting there...

About time, never doubted  

[Snowy L]

Circular High just West of Iceland, cannot get any more perfect that.

Wouldn't worry about the high suddenly rapidly weakening out of nowhere, yet again that is happening the moment it goes to low res at 240.

[sheikhy]

Over the the ensembles!!!will they back the op!!

[Eskimo]

Ice day for most 


 

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

The Beast From The East North

Remember now though we can't get powerhouse northerlies anymore because of climate change.

 

Mean is solid at 144

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Circular High just West of Iceland, cannot get any more perfect that.

Wouldn't worry about the high suddenly rapidly weakening out of nowhere, yet again that is happening the moment it goes to low res at 240.

Does it drop res at  day 10?  I thought gfs op was same res throughout ?? 

[IanT]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Incoming...

..BOOM.

Although 10 days away...

[Howie]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Remember now though we can't get powerhouse northerlies anymore because of climate change.

 

Mean is solid at 144

 

What a mean! Jeez

[Matt H]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Minus 88 for @feb1991blizzard although he probably wants it colder

-88c are uppers that would make even @terrier blush.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Remember now though we can't get powerhouse northerlies anymore because of climate change.

 

Mean is solid at 144

 

Hasn't happened yet :p

But yes the models tonight are fantastic!! Lets hope this continues, it's been years since I've seen snow

[Zak M]

If that GFS pub run verified:

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Minus 88 for @feb1991blizzard although he probably wants it colder

-88? That's not cold enough for snow.

[Jason M]

4 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

We are seeing modelling of Arctic continental air, a rare source these days. With love from N. Siberia via Scandinavia. 

Yep, even if the 850s only look slightly lower, getting rid of tropical source should get us lower dew points and get rid of those pesky warm layers. This week has so reminded me of the 2005 Feb easterly that had similar characteristics with pockets of warmer air mixed in. 

[Mucka]

Given it is pantomime season

That is mean Murr sausage

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Does it drop res at  day 10?  I thought gfs op was same res throughout ?? 

GFS P is same all the way through i believe

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

If that GFS pub run verified:

-88? That's not cold enough for snow.

Now THAT is what I call 'marginal'!

Edited December 29, 2020 by General Cluster

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

GFS P is same all the way through i believe

Well that's handy... 

[Mike Poole]

Mother of God! 

What are we seeing here?

First GFS T282:

Second GFS // T234:

Can anyone honestly say they are not looking at something out of this world as per cold opportunities?  

[Jason M]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Does it drop res at  day 10?  I thought gfs op was same res throughout ?? 

It used to drop res at 192 hours but its higher res all the way out now. The precipitation charts are the giveaway as the grid size used to just get bigger,

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Given it is pantomime season

That is mean Murr sausage

Go on mucka hit me with a beautiful 168 and 192 hour mean when it updates!!!

[Snowy L]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Does it drop res at  day 10?  I thought gfs op was same res throughout ?? 

I've always remembered it dropping after 240, unless they have updated it?

From wiki

"The GFS model is a spectral model with an approximate horizontal resolution of 13 km for the first 10 days and 27 km from 240 to 384 hours (16 days)"

 

In fact regards to the precipitation point you can see it here switching between 240 and 252

Wetterzentrale - Top Karten - GFS Europe 18Z

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

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Wetterkarten GFS Europe 18Z

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Snowy L