Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Paul]

UKV 15z just in, has the prec marginally further north than the 12z, grazing the far south at times. Also not making as much of the inbound rain/sleet/snow in the north as the SR at the moment. 

15z is on the left.

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Not many people will be getting snow in that case!

Not based on this mornings runs but a lot can still change.

"Snow at low levels will quickly turn to rain across Scotland during early Thursday, becoming confined to ground above 500 metres. It will also steadily turn to rain at lower levels further south through the rest of the day whilst petering out"

Starts off as snow and milder air undercuts the precipitation. Starting from Scotland working its way down the country

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

A lot better all snow above 160m. At 66m high i needed a 0.8 degree drop via evaporative cooling to see snow and got it after 45 minutes. Its extremeley marginal bar the first hour of precipitation or so and backed up by met warning who have the snow line at 500metres

If only NW membership came with a free trampoline!

[DogToffee]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks light and patchy, Barely 1cm in the south

This looks blimmin good for these parts!

[Ali1977]

192 looked to be heading West based, 216 looks pretty damn good

[Daniel*]

There’s nothing wrong with this.. look at the mega cold to north! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

As the precipitaton moves through you need to be higher than 400 metres for snow if not 500m

I think you mean that in feet mate..we've had settling snow at around 4-500 feet,with more higher up...your talking 1800feet with those figures...wich would mean temperatures would be quite a bit higher.

[Cheshire Freeze]

D9 ECM...BINGO!

[Tim Bland]

Just now, DogToffee said:

This looks blimmin good for these parts!

Hardly any extra snow has fallen anywhere away from the south / kent coast so it’s what you already have (or don’t have) on the ground now 

[Man With Beard]

ECM D9...D10 should be pretty cold!

 

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

A lot better all snow above 160m. At 66m high i needed a 0.8 degree drop via evaporative cooling to see snow and got it after 45 minutes. Its extremeley marginal bar the first hour of precipitation or so and backed up by met warning who have the snow line at 500metres

I'm getting you pal

Accumulations of 1-3 cm are most likely, with larger accumulations (most likely 5-10 cm) confined to ground above 200 metres. Snow at low levels will quickly turn to rain across Scotland during early Thursday, becoming confined to ground above 500 metres. It will also steadily turn to rain at lower levels further south through the rest of the day whilst petering out.

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The 12z ensembles continue to increase the snow row count for London despite other sources and media forecasts diminishing the chances for snowfall in the South East.

Can’t see the ensembles having much weight in this now even with the time frame less than 24 hours.

[pureasthedriven]

14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Better retrogression pull towards Greenland which is good.

Dangerously close to a UK high that...

But Exeter makes me keep the faith. 

[Cold Winter Night]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

192 looked to be heading West based, 216 looks pretty damn good

Small margins.

West based -NAO or full Northerly hit, what will it be?

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I think you mean that in feet mate..we've had settling snow at around 4-500 feet,with more higher up...your talking 1800feet with those figures...wich would mean temperatures would be quite a bit higher.

No its in metres. @Kasim Awan has the snow line at 400m as weve discussed in private chat. Read the met weather warning they have it at 500metres. Its a snow turning to rain event nothing will be there the day after unless things change

[Mucka]

 

We get there in the end but the high being further S and closer to the UK has two negative factors. 

1. There would be less PPN, especially away from the S

2. there would be a large warm sector to contend with before pulling the arctic feed back in

However if I am being critical of a run that produces a chart like this it must show we are in very unusual times.

This run will be on the less cold side of its ensembles through the medium term and likely a tad colder at the death (day 10)

Edited December 29, 2020 by Mucka

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I think you mean that in feet mate..we've had settling snow at around 4-500 feet,with more higher up...your talking 1800feet with those figures...wich would mean temperatures would be quite a bit higher.

Matt it's in the warning so it's a case of what will be will be. Must be some warm air in the mix. 

[Battleground Snow]

I really wish we could have seen a day 7 and 8 ukmo chart after the way the ECM has developed tonight, maybe we will get a hint on the Ukmo overnight run. 

[NeilN]

West Based -NAO good or bad for cold prospects?

 

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I'm getting you pal

Accumulations of 1-3 cm are most likely, with larger accumulations (most likely 5-10 cm) confined to ground above 200 metres. Snow at low levels will quickly turn to rain across Scotland during early Thursday, becoming confined to ground above 500 metres. It will also steadily turn to rain at lower levels further south through the rest of the day whilst petering out.

 

Yes milder air is brought in behind the low which catches up and turns snow to rain as the snow line rises dramatically.

For me nothing doing for any of us wednesday or thursday

[Daniel*]

West based -NAO yes please?

[Johnp]

Is it me, or is the evolution on ECM between 216 and 240 hours a bit odd?

 

 

 

^ These aren't my images so no idea how they've appeared - and I can't delete???

Edited December 29, 2020 by Johnp

[Allseasons-Si]

Hay guys,and girls

late again to the party as i have been for a walk today up near Bolsterstone

the ECM at day nine looks fantastic with a huge cold pool to the north

caught some lovely lenticular clouds in the sunset with snow in the foreground, stunning.

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

This post was removed

 

We’re in a cold pattern NOW, we are just looking for the next level!  Anyway speaking of day 10, ECM:

Cop a load of that!!

Edited December 29, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Post in quote box removed

[Day 10]

Day 10 - Polar bears heading south.