Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Snowmadsam]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Looks a lot less marginal than the met forecast would have you believe with a snow line around 400 metres for the north thursday

Also brings a significant area of snow to South West Wales which needs to be kept an eye on.....

That part of the world gets accumulations quickly and at short notice 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

12z ensembles still with huge scatter after 5th and op was on the colder side of the pack...

 

They still look a stonker though, most going below -5c, just hope they don't sniff the West based setup like recent sets and start returning the mean towards more average by way of some very mild runs though by looking at the mean they will do just that.

[Gregulator]

2 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Also brings a significant area of snow to South West Wales which needs to be kept an eye on.....

That part of the world gets accumulations quickly and at short notice 

Definitely lamppost watching this one as it moves across the south coast.

[Mucka]

Better output this afternoon than this morning and with a 10 day mean like this any potential breakdown is so far in deep FI it is not worth considering

That really is as good a 10 day mean synoptically as we could hope for.

So for the next 10 days it is cold with chances of snow, winds moving N/NE to E for a time before back to N/NE with the Westerlies locked out.

Superb stuff and surely ECM, which was good anyway, has to be improved tonight?

[kold weather]

13 minutes ago, Paul said:

Trying again, posted the wrong animation first time round. The Netwx-SR (3km) has the prec a bit further north tomorrow/Thurs for southern parts, it also brings a decent area of rain/sleet/snow in across northern England into Thurs.

Thats looking pretty close to where I'd eyeball the mean of all the 12z suite so far.

The only thing I'd love to see is that LP slow down a little, even 2-3hrs later will bring the chances of accumulating snow upwards in a decent way.

Also yes looking increasingly likely there will be a decent snow event for N.England.

[Doctor96]

GFS  this morning and this afternoon trying to bring cold down from arctic but getting close but failing .  will a SSW  help this northern plunge or blow it off westwards.

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Thats looking pretty close to where I'd eyeball the mean of all the 12z suite so far.

The only thing I'd love to see is that LP slow down a little, even 2-3hrs later will bring the chances of accumulating snow upwards in a decent way.

Also yes looking increasingly likely there will be a decent snow event for N.England.

What do the parameters look like on the UKV trying to get my head around abover 400m snowline as snow turns to rain

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I presume from that, the ones that shoot into positive territory are the ones seeing a west-based -NAO.  Not very many, but would like it to be zero!

Kinda, its more they lift up the upper high too quickly due north, which opens the door to that LP coming into SW Europe to head N/NE which introduces the milder air. Not all are going west based, some then get the LP east of us and bring in colder air again as you can see on that ensemble.

Its why actually a slightly more slack and less keen to move JP may not be the biggest problem in the medium term providing it gets there in the end of course!

 

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

Had the run finished when that image was saved? No scatter in my neck of the woods, a little bit further on, but nothing too bad tbh

My set are for London and stop a day early, so there’s a slightly higher chance of mild(er) weather getting into the south.  Still a low chance though as others have said - a stinking set of ensembles on the whole

[AdrianHull]

7 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

GFS  this morning and this afternoon trying to bring cold down from arctic but getting close but failing .  will a SSW  help this northern plunge or blow it off westwards.

Wouldn't take much to tap into those northern winds especially in North England. 

[Cloud 10]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

My set are for London and stop a day early, so there’s a slightly higher chance of mild(er) weather getting into the south.  Still a low chance though as others have said - a stinking set of ensembles on the whole

 

Stinking or Stonking?

[Man With Beard]

ECM rain/snow for tomorrow, first chart is evening, second later in the night. Another marginal affair south of the M4. Various wintry showers further N and W. 

More snow for Scotland and possibly N England on Thursday

Edited December 29, 2020 by Man With Beard

[Mucka]

ECM still the worse (Edit. Not at all bad, just worse of 3 great runs synoptically IMO at 120) of the big 3 for me at 120. Would prefer the high/ridge further N to get a better E flow and more chance of snow. UKMO middle ground, GFS best for that.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Mucka

[I remember Atlantic 252]

EC, good Ely and 850's, Wash streamer hopefully

[That ECM]

T144 all 3 plus gfs mean. ECM has the high closer to Scotland. Ukmo 1/2 way house. I’d take the ukmo.

Edited December 29, 2020 by That ECM

[winterof79]

21 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

What do the parameters look like on the UKV trying to get my head around abover 400m snowline as snow turns to rain

400m snow line Scott?? 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

What strikes me with tonight's 12z ens,is that the cold pools to the North and North East look much more meaningful...so plenty to keep us focused in the coming days...perhaps some battle ground scenarios before much longer...could be some severe frosts also where snow cover is in evidence too..lots to look forward to,and hopefully will keep your minds off the dire Covid situation right now.. if you can have a jolly New years Eve...then please do so.

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM still the worse of the big 3 for me at 120. Would prefer the high/ridge further N to get a better E flow and more chance of snow. UKMO middle ground, GFS best for that.

Yep like 00z the air is colder though and more easterly than northeasterly.

 

 

[chris55]

Arome, Hirlam and Harmonie....every time I see these I’m thinking Dumbledore and Hargrid are the next on the list

We’ve also got Arpege and Cosmo...these two must be in Slytherin  because we don’t ever post them  
 

Here’s a chart just to stay on topic, 

Weasily....the chart of the day.. 

 

Just don’t Snape at me if it’s not to your liking....

 

Edited December 29, 2020 by chris55

[topo]

ECM very close to Ukmo for 144hrs...

Basically ECM keeps the same pattern as it was shown at the 00z run, and Ukmo followed..

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Yep like 00z the air is colder though and more easterly than northeasterly.

 

 

Yes, I was just looking at that.

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 all 3 plus gfs mean. ECM has the high closer to Scotland.

Yes GFS mean has core of the high pretty much over Iceland, ECM is much further S. 

It will be interesting to see where this ECM run sits in its own ensembles but I doubt it is in one of the larger clusters.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

What strikes me with tonight's 12z ens,is that the cold pools to the North and North East look much more meaningful...so plenty to keep us focused in the coming days...perhaps some battle ground scenarios before much longer...could be some severe frosts also where snow cover is in evidence too..lots to look forward to,and hopefully will keep your minds off the dire Covid situation right now.. if you can have a jolly New years Eve...then please do so.

I wouldn't be too surprised were some jammy sods to see some sub--10C minima, Matt? 

[topo]

Bad evolution with this stupid low close to Svalbard blocking all the cold...

[Frostbite1980]

I would just like a frost out of this cold spell because it's not looking likely with low cloud currently and then when when winds move into the east as models are showing that's going to bring cloud off the north sea. Great synoptics however I just can't see a big freeze or nationwide snow fest. I hope the SSW will bring the goods but now that seems like it could bring a west based NAO. All enjoy what you get for the next week or so and hope for better moving forward....I just hope this isn't the winter where so much was promised but not a lot was delivered.