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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year


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Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush

    Are you trying to tell me to be happy with the trpoposphere and worry about the strat later? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    19 minutes ago, Ian Price said:

    Are the orange lines on the HARMONIE charts sleet?

    Graupel I think.  We had some of that here this morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
    6 minutes ago, Griff said:

    You'd certainly have to hope GFSP isn't ready for public consumption and is still work in progress, not as keen. 

    Anything beyond day 10 is unreliable thankfully , getting the high in the right place and cold easterlies is the first part and that looks nailed on 🤞. Remembering a SSW of sorts is there to bolster that in a few weeks. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    Just now, Uncertainy said:

    image.thumb.gif.abdc71ec3148784b27fc500b9d6bc703.gif
     

    A simply stunning chart from the UKMO which has been all over this evolution. The Europe view shows the high getting ‘sucked’ up towards central Greenland and a polar trough about to come down from the North.

    GFS is very different and has the high to the North weaker, still cold medium term and snow showers NE coasts moving inland. 
     

    GFS para is further North with the block and also looks to be heading for retrogression.

    image.thumb.png.3475fa7b5bc0c008802071045c954498.png

    Given ICONs Nward adjustment expect ECM to be closer to UKMO than its 0z. 
     

    A great start to the 12z runs!
     

    Yes all have trended slightly north from the 00z runs. Not sure what it is about the 00z runs! Always seem to be less stellar and give coldies a nervous breakdown!

    Gem at 120... Just need ECM now for a full house...

    I wouldn't look past 168 at the moment, with all the action thats going on miles above our heads

     

    GEMOPEU12_120_1 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Just out of interest what is the verification stats like of the gfsp anyone know. The gfs12z looks superb if you like snow and cold but can we really trust any model at the moment. The gfs seems to be flapping around like a fish out of water at the moment. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    3 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Don't shoot the messenger, the upgrade is going for downgrades

    gfsnh-0-204 (4).png

    gfsnh-1-204 (1).png

    Some logic might say that an upgraded version should be more accurate, however to balance we have no idea if these parallel runs are being tweaked, beta testing etc etc.. are the archived anyway where we could at say what it was showing 10 days ago and the reality...

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

    image.thumb.png.9ebf7c23c5a2c05915bee6a30c5bbc18.png
    Btw you snow starved south easterners after clipping the south coast inc Kent the GEM pivots the snow back into you guys late Thursday night...

    Matt H is very fond of the GEM for short term precip and I’ve followed it recently and he’s right it’s often excellent.

    Far from a done deal! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    It's unbelievable that with this pattern we can't get any cold air still

    Seems pointless at the moment and need a restart 

    This is one run. Go check the UKMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
    7 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Don't shoot the messenger, the upgrade is going for downgrades

    gfsnh-0-204 (4).png

    gfsnh-1-204 (1).png

    Downgraded the cold yes but NH view is still great, let’s wait for the end of the run. Eyes on what’s happening to the north... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    12z GFS certainly following a less risky route at day 10 compared to the 06z, by not moving the block the other side of Greenland but instead keeping it centred south of Greenland - the 12z having the block further SE prevents low pressure blowing up to our immediate west or northwest, which if happened would stop the deeper cold air filtering south.

    06z GFS day 10

    GFSOPEU06_240_1.thumb.png.090aaa51f3f29223b4dc8ae4cb040704.png

    12z GFS day 10

    GFSOPEU12_234_1.thumb.png.2e2fe5f66285744ae868bc2e999651a9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Yes all have trended slightly north from the 00z runs. Not sure what it is about the 00z runs! Always seem to be less stellar and give coldies a nervous breakdown!

    Gem at 120... Just need ECM now for a full house...

    I wouldn't look past 168 at the moment, with all the action thats going on miles above our heads

     

    GEMOPEU12_120_1 (1).png

    Said it loads over thee years 00's mostly miserable!

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    1 minute ago, Uncertainy said:

    image.thumb.png.9ebf7c23c5a2c05915bee6a30c5bbc18.png
    Btw you snow starved south easterners after clipping the south coast inc Kent the GEM pivots the snow back into you guys late Thursday night...

    Matt H is very fond of the GEM for short term precip and I’ve followed it recently and he’s right it’s often excellent.

    Far from a done deal! 

    I personally think the GEM is garbage for precipitation even at close range. 

    According to this, I currently have a covering of snow. The reality is, not a flake has been seen!spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    It's unbelievable that with this pattern we can't get any cold air still

    Seems pointless at the moment and need a restart 

    Needs a restart? Come off it! The GFSp model perhaps, though again some are placing FAR too much stock into operational runs in deep FI.

    Just look at the UKMO in the reliable timeframe and tell us again that we need a pattern reset 😄 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    11 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Sebastiaan. See my post above. Damage to trop is already occurring. It is like you are looking up for a bomb to explode when in reality it has already blown up behind you.....

    Ed, can I check I’m understanding this correctly, because I’ve made a couple of posts about it the other day - seeing the SSW as not just the sudden rise in temperatures, progged maybe around Jan 5th now, but as a longer term evolution of the whole trop and strat system, the effects of which we are already seeing in our weather, and what the models are currently showing in the near term?  

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    Strange time to kill the high pressure given what is going on in the next layer of the atmosphere. Would think GFS will drop that idea after the SSW happens.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
    2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

    Needs a restart? Come off it! The GFSp model perhaps, though again some are placing FAR too much stock into operational runs in deep FI.

    Just look at the UKMO in the reliable timeframe and tell us again that we need a pattern reset 😄 

    Yes i like the UKMO by day 6 it,s already lining up the Scandi.trough to drop the cold into W.Europe.GFS goes a longer route and take around 2 days longer.

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    Just as an example of how cold it’ll be in 8/9 days time here are the midday max temps for 08 Jan - not sure how accurate these are but I imagine they’re closer to the Mark than the Apps showing 3/4c.

    Ice days and harsh frosts - with snow cover double digit mins in favoured spots maybe.

    F1C81F6D-770D-4B55-AB64-736ACA846F81.gif

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Who cares what the GFS(p) is showing in FI?

    Quite amusing that some were calling it their “model of choice” when it was showing a favourable evolution.

    I think T120 is pushing the limits of reliability at the moment.

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    10 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Just out of interest what is the verification stats like of the gfsp anyone know. The gfs12z looks superb if you like snow and cold but can we really trust any model at the moment. The gfs seems to be flapping around like a fish out of water at the moment. 

    Very similar to current GFS at day 5 (it’s labelled GFSV16):

    4C506A4F-474C-441B-897C-5C38D11FE75F.thumb.png.04572ff19013fe679e5b5414d80f5cef.png

    However, given the increased vertical resolution it ought to be better in the strat, and that will be a major player going forward so one might expect it to preform well over the next week or two.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Ed, can I check I’m understanding this correctly, because I’ve made a couple of posts about it the other day - seeing the SSW as not just the sudden rise in temperatures, progged maybe around Jan 5th now, but as a longer term evolution of the whole trop and strat system, the effects of which we are already seeing in our weather, and what the models are currently showing in the near term?  

    Yes

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