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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year


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Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo 120, looks solid!

 

 

UN120-21.gif

Its a peach.

image.thumb.png.be8924fb7c234fd55ef4d417883dbe3c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Just now, Frosty Winter said:

Great to see the UKMO 12z sticking to its guns at t144 in particular with no UK high. So far, so good this afternoon.

63A10781-473F-4E6D-BFBB-CFB661A089AB.gif

Very nice!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Great to see the UKMO 12z sticking to its guns at t144 in particular with no UK high. So far, so good this afternoon.

63A10781-473F-4E6D-BFBB-CFB661A089AB.gif

Yes, UKMO looks very good this afternoon.  It’s one of those where you want to see what the next few frames would do!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

This UKMO 144 chart looks like it's about to drop a northerly!

UW144-21.thumb.gif.fa7b06444d8a6044ad36a77813b24a14.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

120z

image.thumb.png.a0e8025daf355809aa3180c7032027f6.png

144z

image.thumb.png.2e973bc67bd13166946ccbc85fbc6716.png

She's off again

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
23 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes Scott to see any snow you'd have to get on a clipper from Kent...

Joking aside though these systems that swing in invariably do track further north at the last minute.The lows that track across the midlands usually  push further north to south Yorks eg.

 

The Northern extent of the snowline in the SE seems to be about my house I don't hold much hope for being right by the Thames its ever so slightly further SE as it was nearer SELondon/the far South of Essex on last run

Screenshot_20201229-154518_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ukmo 120, looks solid!

 

 

UN120-21.gif

certainly showers off that, dosen't matter what precip charts say, GFS same but going bone dry! question is what will it fall as

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 V the red X forecast

A9FB7928-CB8C-4436-AE6B-EB8A2BAFB912.thumb.jpeg.cb15c4c65aeeb4064e4e135b948f91b6.jpeg129B9EE5-5E63-40F7-97DD-9401CE99E78B.thumb.gif.3411408e882aab333b9440579cb9bab6.gif

Snow showers on east coast?

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, UKMO looks very good this afternoon.  It’s one of those where you want to see what the next few frames would do!

No it's not. Unfortunately. What we need for a good (long term, two months) SSW downwelling is a European Blocking.  See stratospheric topic. UKMO144h has the high pressure to far to the west.

Knipsel2.JPG

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Very very good ukmo!!

The 144 is the best chart I've seen for ages at 144. That would surely bring down some colder air and even if it missed to the east it would still have potential advantages over the longer term. 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
22 minutes ago, Paul said:

12z UKV has and is keeping with the southerly theme.

12zukv.gif

Is it just me or does the UKV tend to underestimate the amount of precipitation? It seems to show very small pockets of rain/snow compared to what actually occurs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

GFS I'm liking you....All roads leading to Rome whichever way you want to travel

image.thumb.png.cb7928a8beabfe88a8837c4a473b3150.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

South of the M4 event tomorrow according to HARMONIE 12z at T33:

207E53B9-9235-4F8B-B2DD-95D0B47A3629.thumb.png.8d2d4724aa3c4329021a4cf1d1c086a1.png

But at least some of us are seeing snow on this run.

There is the hope for you om the South. This model has nailed snow in Stoke and our snow in South Yorkshire last night

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
6 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

No it's not. Unfortunately. What we need for a good (long term, two months) SSW downwelling is a European Blocking.  See stratospheric topic. UKMO144h has the high pressure to far to the west.

Knipsel2.JPG

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

seems others disagree

Edited by Sweatyman
wording
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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
4 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

No it's not. Unfortunately. What we need for a good (long term, two months) SSW downwelling is a European Blocking.  See stratospheric topic. UKMO144h has the high pressure to far to the west.

Knipsel2.JPG

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

So you're thinking that the UKMO is a bust if it went on for longer ? 

May well trend the same way with the GFS/ECM?

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