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Model Output Discussion - Into the new year


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Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

     

    The GEFS mean at T180 is one of those charts you'd get if you let a coldie on netweather draw the lines. This is UK cold perfection - strong high WNW, steady cold and hints of instability to the east.

    Screenshot_20201228-165912.thumb.png.4c0e738977af856777801ade2f7b2e55.png

    A sight of sheer beauty..

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Lots of ideas regarding fantasy island with the idea of Arctic lows heading south.

    Met office 30 dayer now saying in the next 12 days very cold to cold first time very cold

    into the scenario.Let’s wait for ECM to show us the way forward.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    3 minutes ago, Jason H said:

    I don't think that's in the reliable time frame (even the outer) at all. The evolution on the GFS just looks wrong to me. I'd be happy to be proven wrong, but synoptically, I just can't see it playing out like that. I would urge caution peeps. The High to the North West is gradually inching closer to the UK each run too. Again, this is outside the reliable. The future still looks cold regardless.

    Maybe not in the reliable, but plenty of hints and the NH profile suggests that it cannot be ruled out. To dismiss it is rather folly.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Is the gfs op in the last few frames showing a QTR to the SSW ?  I’m doubtful given that it’s a displacement on gfs and the ridge is thrown up from the pacific side within a day of the reversal higher up ?? But it could well be a wave as there may be a reversal at a higher latitude than 10 hpa earlier ??

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Best set of GEFS I can ever recall!! Op was even on the mild side at the end!! 

    BFB8B064-462D-48E1-BF8B-4E1DE5ABEEC7.jpeg

    DDF7F562-EA1B-4DB9-AA6B-1D633A0FB508.jpeg

    I know 😜😜 I just viewed these and laughed.. absolute madness!!!!!!!👊

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    Posted
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Yarm , Middlesbrough

    a long way out on the gfs , but the cold pool around northern europe and far north above iceland looks increasing cold . all we lack is some deep cold .  I woudl like to see some -10c 850 close to uk . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
    5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Maybe not in the reliable, but plenty of hints and the NH profile suggests that it cannot be ruled out. To dismiss it is rather folly.

    I think I am preparing to dismiss the specific GFS Op solution. But overall I still think it will be cold and blocked future.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    32 minutes ago, snowking said:

    There shouldn’t just be alarm bells ringing from this most recent GFS run, there should be great bit gongs, some sort of alarming strobe lighting, and just in case that’s not enough, someone should be available in a town-cryer/Brian Blessed type role (we might have to take it in shifts) to shout that we should not take anything past day 5 right now with anything other than passing curiosity.

    When we have a model run sending a low pressure system the “wrong” way, the dynamics are going to be incredibly difficult for a model to forecast with any sort of accuracy.

    Fascinating watching. I still suspect the retrogression is too fast here but we shall see

    Agreed with all of this, I'm really not comfortable until I see a consistent evolution, nearly every 2-3 suites we are seeing a different type of evolution crop up, with the 12z suite now showing a mid-Atlantic high that morphs into a Greenland high eventually. 

    I'd put FI quite close in at the moment, and that is for both for things to look better or worse.

    The only thing I will say is back in the great winters of 09/10 and Dec 10 models often started bringing in set-ups faster and faster, this maybe a portent for a similar sustained spell of cold/very cold spell coming up.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    1 minute ago, Jason H said:

    I think I am preparing to dismiss the specific GFS Op solution. But overall I still think it will be cold and blocked future.

    Yes, the 12z GFS op is a bit weird with the way it handles the LP.

    Some cracking cold runs in the ensembles though!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    This is a pretty risky evolution at this point here:

    image.thumb.png.edec639279edae360a90cc445622831b.png

    We've seen many a time the models try to develop a northerly flow but then a shortwave comes across that isn't forecasted till 96hrs and cuts the upper high off from ever forming in the first place. So caution very much needed on that type of set-up. Not saying it won't happen just we should as of yet get carried away. Alot of old timers will no doubt be urging caution on this.

    ICON 12z shows what happens if that shortwave behaves differently:

    image.thumb.png.f487e0b2685cc81ea0e9b5c41c44ac73.png

    Still cold, but very much more bland by 180hrs.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    5 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Agreed, Siberia experiencing temps 20-25c below Dec average, cold backing/spreading west.  
     

    I agree with WIB though re the caution as we have experienced scenarios like this that have sunk over the UK, but UKMO and ECM currently bolster confidence and for me we are better than WIBs 60/40 topple HP, but let’s see the continuation and get this Iceland HP in place and hold itself there.

     

    BFTP

    UKMO t144 bears the caution....however that would imo move onto even colder

    image.thumb.gif.ba585eaba6df7e222a3b0c9f35029a21.gif

    look at kink E of Greenland and slither of heights to the west....there’s a monster chart to follow in next 2-3 frames....Arctic plunge

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    13 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

    Lots of ideas regarding fantasy island with the idea of Arctic lows heading south.

    Met office 30 dayer now saying in the next 12 days very cold to cold first time very cold

    into the scenario.Let’s wait for ECM to show us the way forward.

     

    Aye mate... things are now starting to get very interesting:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And, I'd much rather see warm air encroaching from the SW, than see it wafting into Scandinavia from SE Europe... a much-enhanced likelihood of enjoying some channel-runners'?:drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
    Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

    Anyone questioning cold pools...go check some overnight temps in Finland and Siberia...trust me there is some serious cold out there..let things just align for those colder temps to manifest...and like others state we are on the cusp of magnifying our very own home grown cold pool...Thus smacks of 2018 to me,but with added oomph...whatever comes now will be at the heart of Winter,rather than the scrag  end...all systems go...let the fun and games begin gang....fantastic ens by the way...merwahhhh

    gens-5-1-192 (1).png

    gens-7-1-192.png

    gens-11-0-192.png

    gens-15-1-192.png

    gens-20-1-192.png

    gens-20-0-192.png

    gens-21-1-228.png

    gens-23-0-228.png

    gens-24-1-192.png

    tenor-6.gif

    Definetly have a look of 1947 some of these runs coming out!! Omfg if only!

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    Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl

    image.thumb.png.012074e0b5437278cda806925ca3a770.pngJFF but true battle ground........

    remember when i was a lad ...

    Edited by Fozfoster
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    Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford

    Phew chance to pause for breath!

    the models are....erm..outstanding.... it’s fantastic and captivating watching

    need to get some interpretations now...

    SM over to you...

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