Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

D9 ECM...BINGO!

Yet Another pass me the shovel run.... This time ECM

The mother of all Northerlies is immenent. See met forecast brush on it

[Kentspur]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Holding off comment on ECM until now, T192, this looks great, possibility that it would side with GEM, which as discussed earlier was a decent run, it doesn’t, but here the doors come off:

Could end up like that GEFS P2 that @feb1991blizzard posted earlier.

This reminds me a lot of yesterdays 12z GEM which looked  poised as though a big northerly was about to spill out the arctic

[Weathizard]

As the old saying goes judging by the models at the minute : All roads lead to mild... I mean cold  

[pureasthedriven]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

D9 ECM...BINGO!

Beats day 10 for once

[Mucka]

JMA pretty much perfect. No large warm sectors and clean transition from E to N flow likely.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Mucka

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

So we're back to chasing day 10 charts again oh dearly me 

 

I'm failing to understand this..Its cold right now, quite a few of us have seen falling,settling snow,and widespread frosts look likely..your talking like we are in the middle of a Zonal rut!! Couldn't be further from the truth..The outlook is looking very promising..The met update looks promising,and we are on the verge of an SSW..so I would say its completely plausible that many will be looking at those 10 day charts...especially if everything goes to plan,and we receive a QTR...Whats not to get excited about,and considering the dark times we are living in,people really do need the desire to get excited..

[Rayth]

900 times a day he mentions a west based -nao  

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Day ten,..looks a bit twitchy toes to me and looks as though it might go WB-NAO,but i don't care as it's ten days away.

still a stunning chart though.

 

[Cold Winter Night]

I think ECM day 10 is a bit too far West. Most of the cold will probably go to the Atlantic on day 11 and we will end up with Westerlies, like EPS this morning showed.

However, I do like the renewed development of the Arctic high.

[feb1991blizzard]

18 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Well looking at the EC oper output it seems, that a Greenlandblocking at the onset of the SSW is good possible. This is the profile of the SSW composition. In this way not good. Chio pointed out we have to watch at 100 hPa. I question how long will the weak vortex stay there, without 'help' of the SSW.

Have you got any info where the blocking transfers to on average? does it collapse or topple to Scandi? And is there a difference between different SSW type, area and split/displacement?

Edited December 29, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Day ten,..looks a bit twitchy toes to me and looks as though it might go WB-NAO,but i don't care as it's ten days away.

still a stunning chart though.

 

Maybe I’m missing something, but how can that go west-based -NAO when the highest heights are west of everything else?  And are we even in a -NAO regime here?  The ECM clusters have 4 categories +NAO, -NAO, Atlantic ridge, Scandi block (that’s what the coloured borders mean), this is clearly Atlantic ridge, not -NAO.  

Edited December 29, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Raythan said:

900 times a day he mentions a west based -nao  

 

 

West based isn't always bad for us, you can see that high pressure is over eastern Greenland even if the core is to the west.

[nick sussex]

The ECM is an improvement on the earlier run but still too far west with the block .

You need strong blocking further east to drive the coldest air south otherwise the temp divergence will lead to shortwaves developing to the north .

Given the timeframes involved bound to see more changes but the main decider will be where the block goes because the evolution is likely to see low pressure dropping south . If the block can set up further east then this thread should be a very happy place !

[pureasthedriven]

7 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

I think ECM day 10 is a bit too far West. Most of the cold will probably go to the Atlantic on day 11 and we will end up with Westerlies, like EPS this morning showed.

However, I do like the renewed development of the Arctic high.

Depends on the track that Scandi trough takes next though? Not nailed on it would track SSW from there - albeit could use a bit more eastern flank resistance from the AHP. 

Edited December 29, 2020 by pureasthedriven

[pureasthedriven]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

West based isn't always bad for us, you can see that high pressure is over eastern Greenland even if the core is to the west.

And it’s a forecast for ten days time. He talks about it as if it’s a given. 

[lorenzo]

Please try and stick to discussing what's actually on the charts, use the report button if you see something that doesn't fit the thread title - rather than the endless quoting of a post which becomes quite boring to read for everyone ! Thank you !

 

[SLEETY]

Going to have to look North if we want bitterly cold air,hopefully the ECM is on the money at the end.after that met office tweet,with Europe warmer than average,hence not very cold easterlies next week,typical you wait years for decent cold going into January,and then the contintent not cold enough...

Feel like ..

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

Depends on the track that Scandi trough takes next though? Not nailed on it would track SSW from there - albeit could use a bit more resistance for the AHP. 

True. But given the shape of the Atlantic/Greenland high, it seems to be going towards Scotland and Ireland. It would be better if it went straight South into Europe. Like P2 of GEFS 12 Z.

[Anthony Burden]

Still the cold/ very cold outlook continues from all charts.still the tracking of low pressure 

tomorrow could hold surprises for snow in the south,would not take a lot for some parts

to get a right dumping.Great watching.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Maybe I’m missing something, but how can that go west-based -NAO when the highest heights are west of everything else?  

Yeah maybe you are right,what i should of said is that it is too far west,been a long day

a lot  will change come the time so i am not worried yet and there is a lot of fine tuning to be ironed out

i am just going to enjoy this week as there is a few opportunities for more snowfall to come. 

[Tim Bland]

13 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yet Another pass me the shovel run.... This time ECM

The mother of all Northerlies is immenent. See met forecast brush on it

Sorry for being the grinch but just for the benefit of this who are scrolling the forum fior snow opportunities ... ECM looks great Synopticaly and has lots of potential day 10+ however it has little or no snow for most. So it’s not a ‘grab your shovel’ run. There is less snow on the ground by the end than there is now. Weds system misses the south, there is also hardly any showers coming south Thurs / Fri. It’s then dry for a few days then a bit of light rain coming in from the east before a colder dry finish. As we are approaching mid winter I’m personally just looking for snow now so I’m a little disappointed as it just has a bit of rain for most and the potential is after day 10

[Methuselah]

Just had a wee chat with my best mate, Captain Sensible, and have decided to post some ensemble stuff... and, it looks like 16-days' between +3 and -3C, and with a fair bit of 'indeterminate' precipitation:

     

     

But the really good news, is that the deep-cold uppers still appear to be coming round this side of the hemisphere -- Reverse Zzzzzz?

    

    

 

[Polar Maritime]

As per Lorenzo's post, Lets please keep to discussion to what the models are showing please, not hopes thoughts & moans. Thanks all 

[Djdazzle]

It just seems that at the moment, we’ve accepted our invite to the cold party. But we can’t seem to get an invite to the special VIP lounge where deep cold is located.

I can sense why folks are frustrated because most people haven’t seen snow or even a frost out of this spell yet. 4C by day and 1C by night with grey skies and drizzle don’t cut it for most people! It may as well be 13C which would save on the heating bills.

There seems to be no clear model consensus as to where we are heading, which is frustrating considering the overall positive NH profile.

 

 

[Panayiotis]

You got to love model watching at the moment! We have northerlies, north-easterlies, easterlies, Atlantic highs, Icelandic highs, Scandi highs and Greenland highs, and the best is that’s this is all within 240hrs with all the westerly muck being forecast way out of range. 

Regards to the west based NAO being modelled; I actually prefer seeing it as from experience a *forecasted* w-NAO moves east closer to the actual date. 

 

I know the GFS hasn’t got the best name for itself, but it’s predicted this evolution quite well since I spotted it on the 14th.