Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[sheikhy]

Ecm mean❄

[damianslaw]

In the very near timeframe we have alot of short term development programmed which makes forecasting ahead very tricky. Tonight a frontal trough feature moving in from off the N Sea bringing a wintry mix to much of N England, who will see snow and where uncertain.

Tomorrow now looking very interesting, shortwave development near Iceland in the cold NW flow, a feature only just picked up in last few hours, these are notoriously difficult to pinpoint trajectory wise. Currently looks like moving into the Irish Sea and then through Wales developing into a shallow low feature and pivoting, it could easily end up further eastwards or further west.

As we end the year, high pressure to our NW going nowhere, the northerly feed becoming a NE feed, further snow showers for some, and sudden trough features most likely will develop in the unstable airflow.

As we move into 2021, coldest start to a New Year quite probably since 2010, GFS keen to move heights towards Iceland, ECM shifts core of heights further west and we pull in an easterly feed but not from a very cold air source at least initially. My eye is drawn to the very cold air pooling to our NE and signs this may eventually come our way.. but for now my attention is on the short term.

 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is the EPS mean.PPN 72 accum over that 24 hour period.

I must be having another 'senior moment', Steve (they come with ever-increasing frequency, these days) but how can snow accumulate on seawater?

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T240, just like yesterday, I’ve never seen this before in winter, there is nothing driving our weather, at all, it can do what it wants.  

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I must be having another 'senior moment', Steve (they come with ever-increasing frequency, these days) but how can snow accumulate on seawater?

It’s the amount of ppn that’s fallen added together over the periodNot a depth chart. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by That ECM

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm mean❄

Perhaps a battleground with mild air to the south trying to get in and cold from the north east pushing down, with snow in the middle (midlands)?  

 

[Met4Cast]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

EC postage stamps now freely available ......

Showing snowfall? I can only find the MSLP stamps on the ECWMF website?

[Beanz]

METO have are now showing the shortwave taking a similar track as the ECM.  Could be an interesting few days moving into NY

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 Steady on 

just a note on the 12z eps and the threat of those less cold uppers heading north by day 10 shown on the run to run change 

 

What does that same chart but for 360 show please?

[lorenzo]

Oh go on then... don't think anyone here would complain...

[Anthony Burden]

Keeping keen eye on the fax for Wednesday low pressure track,possible major snow

event for the south depending on the movement of this volatile low pressure.

very exciting to watch difficult to stay away from these weather options.

[Mark wheeler]

7 minutes ago, Beanz said:

METO have are now showing the shortwave taking a similar track as the ECM.  Could be an interesting few days moving into NY

Can you show me where to find this please .

[That ECM]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Can you show me where to find this please .

This I believe.

[Griff]

Not much to add... 

(Star Wars quote "stay on target"...) 

 

[Howie]

WOW

[KTtom]

I think this is the most up to date fax chart for midnight wednesday...not much room for error otherwise it misses the UK entirely!

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by KTtom

[Mark wheeler]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

This I believe.

Ahh cheers . It all makes sense now . 
 

Anyway I was getting upset earlier as my favourite Navgem was late running tonight . It did eventually and it’s not too bad . 
 

edit - 1st two charts wrong way around 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Met4Cast]

Hot off the press! The latest EC46 update has blocked the Arctic off right through until week 4. Strongest signal yet!

I can't remember ever seeing such a persistent signal.

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

I think this is the most up to date fax chart for midnight wednesday...not much room for error otherwise it misses the UK entirely!

 

It’s a Bournemouth event. I’ll post photos

[fromey]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Hot off the press! The latest EC46 update has blocked the Arctic off right through until week 4. Strongest signal yet!

I can't remember ever seeing such a persistent signal.

Holy hell! Has anybody seen anything like that??

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Ahh cheers . It all makes sense now . 
 

Anyway I was getting upset earlier as my favourite Navgem was late running tonight . It did eventually and it’s not too bad . 

Murr sausage at T180, I think that’s a bit progressive, Mark, but we live in hope.

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Hot off the press! The latest EC46 update has blocked the Arctic off right through until week 4. Strongest signal yet!

I can't remember ever seeing such a persistent signal.

Do you mean blocked Atlantic off. If you did artic then I’m not sure how that helps?

[Matty J]

50 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

The Met are obviously taking note of the ECM rather than UKV though if they have issued a warning right up to midlands?

IMO the UKV has it too far south currently.
 

The 6:55pm forcast on the beeb was quite suprising really, snow plastered all over EA and the Southeast. I usually find they are the last to show what we are ramping about in here so they must have a degree of confidence  

[Howie]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Hot off the press! The latest EC46 update has blocked the Arctic off right through until week 4. Strongest signal yet!

I can't remember ever seeing such a persistent signal.

It's been very consistent with this as well 

[Nick F]

Plenty for cold and snow lovers to be optimistic about, and probably not prudent to look too far ahead of 5 days, but I think if I have any concerns, it could be a west-based -NAO perhaps allowing low pressure tracking under a west side of Greenland block then edging too far north over NW Europe - keeping deep cold out of reach and even allowing Tm air in across the far south.

But this is not a strong possibility at the moment and the models seem less certain run to run beyond 6 days where to build heights to our N or NW.