Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[chionomaniac]

A more traditional channel low by the end of the ECM. Nudge it north and we could use the rare b word

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Euro4 showing nothing on wednesday apart from a little patchy rain in the channel   Must be way off.

In all serious, you can almost guarantee where most predicted snow charts are showing 48 hours out the places affected will almost be different 12 hours out. Will be a classic case of Nowcasting.

Euro 4 has totally lost the plot these days. I ignore and follow ARPEGE, AROME and ECM (and UKV)

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here you go folks,a look at the hi resolution ECM 12z 3 day run...and to me it looks like large areas are in for some of the dandruff....lovely ECM run as well,a good mean to follow surely.

Edited December 28, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[Harsh Climate]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Euro4 is just too far south and perhaps a little weaker as well than the other models.

Shift that area up about 100 miles and it wouldn't be all that different from the ECM, maybe just as I said a little weaker and not quite as extensive as a consequence.

Its within the range of what is possible, though thankfully right at the southern end of what is likely at this point it seems.

Both Icon and Aprege are much further south than ECM too. Huge caution advised this early on.

[Mapantz]

A quick few frames from the 15Z UKV:

  

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

A more traditional channel low by the end of the ECM. Nudge it north and we could use the rare b word

Bartlet?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Excellent ECM D10 chart 

Europe shown to get colder and colder

[BARRY]

56 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

I haven't woken up to a magical winter wonderland for nearly 8 years....

Extended cold, snowy weather or not. The 12z has something for everyone.

 

Just once... this time... please.... 

nowt for us need to get colder uppers

[Harsh Climate]

10 minutes ago, West is Best said:

This may fall on deaf ears but I continue to urge caution. The easterly scenario is by no means nailed on. With these ensembles I continue to think it's 60:40 high pressure will settle (topple) back over the UK after the northerly:

 

 GET OUT!! 

No good post, your probably not far off it 60/40 although I'd say more 70/30. We are by no means there yet, I think if this was to go go the way of the pear, which we have seen many times before there would be a lot of suicidal people on here! That is why I'm still waiting to see what happens before I let my self fully go with excitment lol,

Edited December 28, 2020 by Harsh Climate

[tight isobar]

25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 96 wrap around

Rolling pivot there SM.. classic ..@it doesn’t want to stop snowing... !!! 

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Euro4 is just too far south and perhaps a little weaker as well than the other models.

Shift that area up about 100 miles and it wouldn't be all that different from the ECM, maybe just as I said a little weaker and not quite as extensive as a consequence.

Its within the range of what is possible, though thankfully right at the southern end of what is likely at this point it seems.

Harmonie looks like the low is approaching Wales on the same path as ECM how far does UKV go? Anyone have latest they can share

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Bartlet?

'Bugger' off... 

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, West is Best said:

This may fall on deaf ears but I continue to urge caution. The easterly scenario is by no means nailed on. With these ensembles I continue to think it's 60:40 high pressure will settle (topple) back over the UK after the northerly:

 

I do agree with you on the cuation side of things, we've been around the block and have seen these both succed and fail before!

With that all being said, I've got to be honest and say I've rarely seen the stratosphere and troposphere both so primed for northern blocking in the 16 years I've been here.

I think if we end up with a high over shores it isn't hanging around for long before it gets scooped back up...indeed some of our very best winter spells have come from such evolutions.

If we do get lucky, we may end up bypassing that stage and just go straight into an ever cooling easterly flow, which at first won't be that impressive but hold it long enough and there is bound to be a proper injection of cold air into the systreml

[snowking]

ECM evolution looks much more within the envelope of expectation than the GFS.

Even more encouragingly, with the Pacific trough still very much in play (potential for record low pacific pressure it appears) and a big Siberian high, further wave activity is likely to continue to kick what remains of the PV in the proverbials.

[SMU]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Rolling pivot there SM.. classic ..@it doesn’t want to stop snowing... !!! 

Lets see what T24 looks like...!

No doubt it will be in the channel or worse still edged 50 miles north & it rains here for 36 hours.

[The Northern Ramper]

28 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

ECM absolutely plasters the SE corner. 10-20cm. 

Red warning incoming

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, West is Best said:

This may fall on deaf ears but I continue to urge caution. The easterly scenario is by no means nailed on. With these ensembles I continue to think it's 60:40 high pressure will settle (topple) back over the UK after the northerly:

 

WIB.

That chance is all but 0%.

Its a retrograde block supported by the attenuation in the jet. It can only go north... thats because tbe jets cutting underneath.

It cant sink.

[Matt H]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

Red warning incoming

That’s one hell of a ramp, Ramp.

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Both Icon and Aprege are much further south than ECM too. Huge caution advised this early on.

Looks like the high resolution models are indeed further south than the global which is obviously interesting to see!

If there is going to be an error, I'd have thought it was to the south. Then again thats far from certain of course.

I'm quite far south so only the ICON would probably miss locally for me, however I hope those models do adjust northerwards with time.

Getting to the timeframe where the real high resolution models will be running it.

[IanT]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Good post. This has all the hall marsk of reverse zonality

ytilanoz...?

Very rare.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

WIB.

That chance is all but 0%.

Its a retrograde block supported by the attenuation in the jet. It can only go north... thats because tbe jets cutting underneath.

It cant sink.

Steve I'm probably going to regret this, but if it ends up too far south, we would be basically primed for something that looks similar to Dec 62...

Not saying the long term would look like that winter, but that IMO is what happens even if it does sink somewhat. If it does, its not going to be hanging around our shores for long.

[Mike Poole]

Someone mentioned reverse zonal flow earlier (I won’t use the non-word ), starting to see it now at the end of the ECM run.  ECM T240:

Where’s the cold air going T216 to T240?

[Paul]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

Red warning incoming

I wouldn't get that far ahead yet, the UKV (UKMO's own model) not showing anything quite so dramatic at the moment. 

[Djdazzle]

This “60/40 and 70/30” chance of a UK high intrigues me as it seems to have little support. I’m not saying it’s not a possibility but plucking out random odds is a little annoying.

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Red warning incoming

Maybe down south but an advisory up here