Model Output Discussion - Into the new year

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Yup.. he blocks people just for LIKING the tweets of someone who has disagreed with him, even if it was politely. Very, very bizarre. 

My idea of the pattern relaxing as we go through the first week of January is looking decidedly wrong now.. If anything the pattern begins to intensify through the first week across all the latest guidance. The GFS 06z shows us a clear & easy route to proper cold.

Griceland ridge > Griceland block > Retrogression to a Greenland block > Scandi trough > Cold.

This is BEFORE any SSW...

Agreed - the timetable is racing ahead and I had expected a softening of the pattern just after New Year. At the moment it would appear not....but maybe NWP is getting ahead of itself still. However if these charts 2/3/4 January come to pass then what might follow by 6/7/8 could be pretty “significant”...!

[Tim Bland]

Stunning! Glad it dropped the naff output from earlier! 

[radiohead]

How nice it is to see a real proper area of deep cold air to our east that we can tap into. None of this wishy-washy -4 muck.

We just need to open the floodgates here...

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Incredible looking charts at relatively so early on in the season. It’s rare to get a reverse zonality chart showing in December, incredibly rare. 

Make the most and best out of this folks. 

[Climate Man]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Agreed - the timetable is racing ahead and I had expected a softening of the pattern just after New Year. At the moment it would appear not....but maybe NWP is getting ahead of itself still. However if these charts 2/3/4 January come to pass then what might follow by 6/7/8 could be pretty “significant”...!

Yes indeed,  some seriously cold uppers now appearing to the East as we move into the New Year and currently modeled to drift this way.

[Hullsnow87]

Hope this comes off we have seen wobbles but I remember this happening in 2010, if we can open the flood gates uk will be buried by North Sea snow machine with warmer sst as they are now brilliant here’s hoping long may it continue.

[snowking]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Agreed - the timetable is racing ahead and I had expected a softening of the pattern just after New Year. At the moment it would appear not....but maybe NWP is getting ahead of itself still. However if these charts 2/3/4 January come to pass then what might follow by 6/7/8 could be pretty “significant”...!

Seconded. This evolution looks about 7-10 days or so too quick to me, difficult to know though with so much going on. Is this a ridiculously quick response to goings on in the stratosphere? Is this tropospherically led? I suspect we might see these charts continuing to stay at the same timeframe for a few days yet rather than being reeled in.

I’m also slightly sceptical of GFS output in the troposphere at the moment given it doesn’t seem to have a handle on the stratosphere at day 5 yet vs all other suites.

The overall pattern though is the one I think we’re all expecting, retrogression of heights, stronger and colder European trough, with the UK sitting somewhere close to the periphery.

If everything goes just right then we will be laughing. Lots to play out yet though so caution required

[Battleground Snow]

GEFS continue to strengthen the heights to our North on every run. 168 v 174

What a week ahead we have  of model watching.

 

 

[SMU]

Morning

 

Im not unleashing the boom charts just yet - Im saving it...

However they are coming.... Soon...

[fromey]

@bluearmy this one then.

[SMU]

Also of key note today in the modelling is the loss of the projected ESE flow to be replaced by ENE...

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

 

Im not unleashing the boom charts just yet - Im saving it...

However they are coming.... Soon...

Is the dreaded West based -ve NAO a worry?

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Stunning! Glad it dropped the naff output from earlier! 

To my very untrained eye that looks a stunning chart. A couple of days ago, and with a SSW apparently in the wings, I think members would have been salivating over such a chart but it is interesting to see how there seems to be a lot less positivity in here this morning.     

[snowice]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

 

Im not unleashing the boom charts just yet - Im saving it...

However they are coming.... Soon...

4pm today can't wait

[Griff]

Just for fun GFSP looks as if it will topple in deep, darkest FI, but might have a reload soon after? 

Edit: your mum might be stuck in tier 4 and can't go to Iceland, but the purple blob has gone on a winter Arctic safari... 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Griff

[jules216]

Greetings from Slovakia.Took a chance and booked a chalet on Higher Ground(800m) as I wanted to experience proper winter. Forecasts expecting over 50mm of Snow until tomorrow.Its Been snowing moderately since last night already.So calm and magic as this is a remote Area in Slovak paradise with only Holiday homes. Fingers crossed UK hits proper Snow soon.Great model watching.

 

[Catacol]

4 minutes ago, snowking said:

Seconded. This evolution looks about 7-10 days or so too quick to me, difficult to know though with so much going on. Is this a ridiculously quick response to goings on in the stratosphere? Is this tropospherically led? I suspect we might see these charts continuing to stay at the same timeframe for a few days yet rather than being reeled in.

I’m also slightly sceptical of GFS output in the troposphere at the moment given it doesn’t seem to have a handle on the stratosphere at day 5 yet vs all other suites.

The overall pattern though is the one I think we’re all expecting, retrogression of heights, stronger and colder European trough, with the UK sitting somewhere close to the periphery.

If everything goes just right then we will be laughing. Lots to play out yet though so caution required

Perhaps we really are seeing downward impacts of the weak strat already. ECM for Jan 3 on the trop/strat boundary is extremely supportive of an Iceland ridge and Euro cold backing west. 

Living the dream at the moment! 

[PiscesStar]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

 

Im not unleashing the boom charts just yet - Im saving it...

However they are coming.... Soon...

What run Steve...... When

[Battleground Snow]

6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Perhaps we really are seeing downward impacts of the weak strat already. ECM for Jan 3 on the trop/strat boundary is extremely supportive of an Iceland ridge and Euro cold backing west. 

Living the dream at the moment! 

The para did start to show these quicker evolutions in FI before the regular GFS,  so maybe it could be strat related as the para has a better handle on events up there?

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, Griff said:

Just for fun GFSP looks as if it will topple in deep, darkest FI, but might have a reload soon after? 

Edit: your mum might be stuck in tier 4 and can't go to Iceland, but the purple blob has gone on a winter Arctic safari... 

GFSP looks like it will still end well regardless 

[BarometerCat]

GFS 12z, still cold out to +336.  To my untrained eye, no real sign of mild for a change.  This is unlike any recent winter since I've been watching on here.   

Take your pick for best charts at the moment.  

[Johnp]

5 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

What run Steve...... When

He may be knowledgeable, but I don't think he can see the future yet!

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, fromey said:

@bluearmy this one then.

move it 300 miles nw ......... compare it with the stuff being churned out by the other models early last week for this coming weekend 

it’s not that bad .....my point being that you dont take anything in isolation..... that’s what the idiots that read the express do ..... those on here are surely more  complex than that ???

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, B-C said:

GFS 12z, still cold out to +336.  To my untrained eye, no real sign of mild for a change.  This is unlike any recent winter since I've been watching on here.   

Take your pick for best charts at the moment.  

That’ll be yesterday’s chart. Check out 6z for today’s output.

[Met4Cast]

8 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Perhaps we really are seeing downward impacts of the weak strat already. ECM for Jan 3 on the trop/strat boundary is extremely supportive of an Iceland ridge and Euro cold backing west. 

Living the dream at the moment! 

It is a little perplexing.. Up until 2 days ago models were beginning to relax the pattern and then the GFS flipped to blocking & the ECM followed. Difficult to argue with the consistency between both models & the ensemble suites since then..

If anything, the means have doubled down in support of a Griceland > Greenland block. The 06z GEFS mean is absolutely stonking.

EPS mean a little further south, but I don't think anybody here would be kicking it out of bed

I don't like to compare years with previous years, but I've not seen an ensemble suite that good at that range since 2010..