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Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL

    Really remarkable difference between the forecast for Caerphilly town, @Jayfromcardiff, and the forecast for my area, five miles up the road and still at a pretty modest elevation.

    Screenshot 2021-01-29 at 13.37.22.png

    Screenshot 2021-01-29 at 13.41.22.png

    Edited by Jackfrost
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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    9 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

    Really remarkable difference between the forecast for Caerphilly town, @Jayfromcardiff, and the forecast for my area, five miles up the road and still at a pretty modest elevation.

    Screenshot 2021-01-29 at 13.37.22.png

    Screenshot 2021-01-29 at 13.41.22.png

    Do you think I'll see any snow? Hopefully we all get a covering?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL
    14 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Do you think I'll see any snow? Hopefully we all get a covering?

    I think you'll at least see some falling, but in terms of accumulations it's so dependent on altitude that I'm not even certain I'll see settling.

    Honestly, if the UK and Ireland kept their oceanic climate but were a thousand miles further north and had generally greater elevation, our winters would be almost as snowy as Hokkaido and Montreal and without the worries over marginality.

    Edited by Jackfrost
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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    51 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

    I think you'll at least see some falling, but in terms of accumulations it's so dependent on altitude that I'm not even certain I'll see settling.

    Honestly, if the UK and Ireland kept their oceanic climate but were a thousand miles further north and had generally greater elevation, our winters would be almost as snowy as Hokkaido and Montreal and without the worries over marginality.

    Probably a high ground affair for the next few days then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    I'm not expecting much in South Wales over the next few days unless you live over 200m, maybe some sleet or wet snow at times but not amounting to very much.

    What is interesting is that there's a growing confidence as we go into the second week of February we could see High Pressure build to the North allowing a cold North Easterly/ Easterly flow to set up. Wales doesn't tend to do great in terms of snow out of Easterly periods like this at first, but as we proved in 2018, if we can get some proper cold in place over a period of a week or so, and you then get a disturbance move in from the South West (just like Storm Emma in 2018) which bumps into the cold air, we can end up with some really significant, non marginal snow here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    6 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

    I'm not expecting much in South Wales over the next few days unless you live over 200m, maybe some sleet or wet snow at times but not amounting to very much.

    What is interesting is that there's a growing confidence as we go into the second week of February we could see High Pressure build to the North allowing a cold North Easterly/ Easterly flow to set up. Wales doesn't tend to do great in terms of snow out of Easterly periods like this at first, but as we proved in 2018, if we can get some proper cold in place over a period of a week or so, and you then get a disturbance move in from the South West (just like Storm Emma in 2018) which bumps into the cold air, we can end up with some really significant, non marginal snow here. 

    I agree. I also don't understand why there's a warning out for next week as it looks far too mild for snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
    22 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Probably a high ground affair for the next few days then.

    Deff a high ground affair for any settling or disruptive snow, I can remember loads of times over the years where we had rain but the hills behind would b white, it hasn't happened for years but this will b 1 of those occasions

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    10 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

    Deff a high ground affair for any settling or disruptive snow, I can remember loads of times over the years where we had rain but the hills behind would b white, it hasn't happened for years but this will b 1 of those occasions

    We can always hope for upgrades, it's happened before and will happen again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

    middle of next week according to arpege - not sure about that - but that's alot of snow

    image.thumb.png.914b73a0317aad535daa31e39cd33280.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

    Simular setups have indeed delivered to even the coast in these setups. Unfortunately timing of these systems doesn't look great and therefore is occurring during day light hours when its warmer than if they were pushing in during the night. 

    Sunday does look colder and indeed the chance for coastal sleet/snow is slightly higher

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales

    Less confused today heavy rain....with the chance to see some falling snow tomorrow afternoon ...no accumulations though just the wrong side of marginal this time. My partners parents are from brynmawr and there is for a pasting by the looks of it 8 hours of heavy snow...wow and Sunday more comming in ! Would love to take a trip up .....damn lockdown 

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood 230m asl
  • Location: Blackwood 230m asl

    No-one staying up tonight then lamppost watching? Has snow for blackwood tomorrow from 11am onwards with the met office, 9 am bbc. Either way I'm still out for my weekend long run, but I think its going to be a very much hit or miss tomorrow weather wise🤷‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    2 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    I agree. I also don't understand why there's a warning out for next week as it looks far too mild for snow.

    Backside covering perhaps?

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    55 minutes ago, dbaloo said:

    No-one staying up tonight then lamppost watching? Has snow for blackwood tomorrow from 11am onwards with the met office, 9 am bbc. Either way I'm still out for my weekend long run, but I think its going to be a very much hit or miss tomorrow weather wise🤷‍♂️

    Don't fancy watching heavy rain lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ystalyfera / Ystradgynlais. 130m.
  • Location: Ystalyfera / Ystradgynlais. 130m.
    40 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Don't fancy watching heavy rain lol.

    Odds must be stacked against us if  Jay isn't doing an all nighter 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Ystalyfera / Ystradgynlais. 130m.
  • Location: Ystalyfera / Ystradgynlais. 130m.
    45 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

    Loving the Arpege tonight , lots of chances 😄

    It is looking good for the week ahead. Not sure I trust it though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    ECM estimated snow depths for Saturday:

    image.thumb.png.cf66de5aee9db6e65713e9fa4175026e.png

    and Sunday:

    image.thumb.png.ce28c149f194f22e7a26b101ff71bbe1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedlinog
  • Location: Bedlinog
    37 minutes ago, Gee said:

    Odds must be stacked against us if  Jay isn't doing an all nighter 😂

    He's out in his snow plough. Anyway, you've gotta love this weather. I'm pretty sure most paces in South Wales will see snow, not just mid Wales. Looking like an exciting week. 

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