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Osbourne One-Nil
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Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL

    Yes, I also think it's likely to be corrected southwards to take in the Valleys at least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs

    I’m expecting a repeat performance of last week here but on Saturday and with wind included = drifts 😁😁

    Then more sunday 😁💪🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

    Don’t worry it will correct south! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood 230m asl
  • Location: Blackwood 230m asl

    Tends to be 9 times out of 10 that there is always an adjustment south. If this is the case this weekend we have the advantage that the band of wintery perception (I won't say snow because who knows what it will be 😬😂) is already further north so won't hopefully sink off into the channel or France.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Sunny days 25C Autumn/Spring: Rain and storms Winter:Snow
  • Location: Rogerstone

    BBC are very honest and basically saying still not clear how far north it will go and the forecast will change a lot depending on this. Last weekend was unusual in it ending up further north than expected... seems like usually about 7 times out of ten it gets corrected southwards. Hope it does this time as looks very marginal. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

    I'd presume a correction south.. 

    You just have to look at the way the models have handled the Atlantic fronts moving in this week Initally it was a rain fest with Atlantic low after Atlantic low. 

    As the models move closer and they realise they can't displace the cold air they will continue to correct south. 

    That's what usually happens anyway. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    18 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

    Yes, I also think it's likely to be corrected southwards to take in the Valleys at least.

    I can't see Caerphilly being included though unfortunately.

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    Posted
  • Location: cwmbran south wales
  • Location: cwmbran south wales

    according to metoffice torfaen is not in the warnng area but if you go on the bbc website they have the metoffice warning which say torfaen is included but the bbc are showing nothing but rain makes you laugh really how can they show rain and a warning for snow at  the same time lol.Hopefully it will correct further south

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    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

    I mentioned the winter of 1918 1919 this set up is very similar.Looking at February  We going slowly but surely into the Freezer we been threatened a few times of the beast has reared his head.Threat wil become reality.

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    Posted
  • Location: cwmbran south wales
  • Location: cwmbran south wales

    strangely enough pontypool where i work on the met forecast for saturday is showing heavy snow for a few hours and then light snow for a few  is not on the warning very odd

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    UKV 09Z has some very heavy snow for Mid and East Wales on Saturday at 6am. Rain to the South which fits in with the MetOffice warning areas.

    image.thumb.png.9277e9db00aa89ab5c6ad74e6e5ec2c0.pngimage.thumb.png.91e685b3a6b6c07e9eebc019091e4614.pngimage.thumb.png.663c70f2aa1ffe4feaab32701c1b5851.png 

     

    Hopefully it will correct Southwards, we will have to wait and see

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

    Didn’t the last snow fall correct north?? Hopefully this won’t!

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    19 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    Didn’t the last snow fall correct north?? Hopefully this won’t!

    I was about to say the same thing, to be honest sometimes its better to not be included in the warning. 9/10 times it results in disappointment.

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    36 minutes ago, butters said:

    according to metoffice torfaen is not in the warnng area but if you go on the bbc website they have the metoffice warning which say torfaen is included but the bbc are showing nothing but rain makes you laugh really how can they show rain and a warning for snow at  the same time lol.Hopefully it will correct further south

    But if you go further north Blaenavon at over 350M would be snow. So I'm guessing the MO are edging their bets

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL

    Still a massive amount of uncertainty at the moment, the warning matrix is on the unlikely and low disruption end of the scale. It could change but at the moment it looks like south and west wales will b rain and mid and North wales maybe snow

    Screenshot_20210128-122221_Samsung Internet.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    Just now, freeze for all said:

    Still a massive amount of uncertainty at the moment, the warning matrix is on the unlikely and low disruption end of the scale. It could change but at the moment it looks like south and west wales will b rain and mid and North wales maybe snow

    Screenshot_20210128-122221_Samsung Internet.jpg

    That's very true, all It takes is a 50 mile shift and things change.

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    Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)

    Just rain in Sth.Wales I expect.....

    Screenshot_20210128-125226_Samsung Internet.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan

    An interesting 48 hours coming up 

    There’s no way that ANY model has this nailed yet 

    My thoughts? 

    It Will correct south and bring into play the Valleys and SE Wales 

    As for Cardiff I think prob rain and maybe some transient back edge sleet or snow 

    Aberdare I think will sit on the boundary. But HoV will do well as will Beacons, Brecon etc 

    My guess is the Warning zone won’t change 

    But expect surprises just south of it 

    Edited by JamesL
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    Posted
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs

    The harmonie is a poor model as far as I am concerned! Completely wrong with last week's event. 

    Also this is a different set up to last week. Last week was a shortwave dropping South, this is an LP moving in from the West with winds SE veering E/Ne! That's the key, no offshore winds. 

    Expect a lot of snow across most of Wales. Seen this kind of setup all too many times before. 

    Warning matrix will increase tomorrow and be extended south. 

    Edited by Cymro
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    Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
    5 minutes ago, JamesL said:

    An interesting 48 hours coming up 

    There’s no way that ANY model has this nailed yet 

    My thoughts? 

    It Will correct south and bring into play the Valleys and SE Wales 

    As for Cardiff I think prob rain and maybe some transient back edge sleet or snow 

    Aberdare I think will sit on the boundary. But HoV will do well as will Beacons, Brecon etc 

    My guess is the Warning zone won’t change 

    But expect surprises just south of it 

    Can't see it myself but obviously hope you're right.......will know more this Time tomorrow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood 230m asl
  • Location: Blackwood 230m asl
    4 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

    Can't see it myself but obviously hope you're right.......will know more this Time tomorrow. 

    The way this models are chopping and changing we may know less 🤣

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