Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion


Osbourne One-Nil
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    54 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

    Still no idea what will happen on saturday or sunday.  I see Arpege says snow for saturday .

    Met office are now showing snow for me on Saturday and Sunday.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL
  • Location: Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL

    A very complex pattern this weekend and into next week but, as things stand, Wales (and South Wales in particular) could be in for a snowy old weekend. The potential is there for more significant snow than we saw on Sunday and the models have shown consistency in this for the last few days, but it goes without saying that the uncertainty is very high and any expectations we have of snow could be snatched away with just one run.

    The 18Z is about to begin rolling out. Let's see what it shows.

    Edited by Jackfrost
    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    GFS Parallel 18Z is much better than GFS. GFS pushes the low all the way up to Scotland and is an all rain event for us, whereas the Para keeps it to the South and gives a snow event on Saturday + Sunday

    image.thumb.png.154ae6be00ceddd3061077347613467a.png

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    2 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

    GFS Parallel 18Z is much better than GFS. GFS pushes the low all the way up to Scotland and is an all rain event for us, whereas the Para keeps it to the South and gives a snow event on Saturday + Sunday

    image.thumb.png.154ae6be00ceddd3061077347613467a.png

    Don't the met office just use their own model mate? How's it looking now?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
    2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Don't the met office just use their own model mate? How's it looking now?

    I believe they do - the UKV runs 6 times a day from 0-48hrs, and twice a day from 0-120hrs (extended version). The last extended version was the one I posted earlier and showed a spell of snow away from the coasts above around 100m on Saturday/Sunday. From tomorrow afternoon it will update more regularly for Saturday's event as it'll be in the 48 hour range

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly

    Monday 1 Feb - Wednesday 10 Feb

    Going into next week, it is likely that unsettled conditions will dominate, with low pressure systems moving in off the Atlantic. The weather will be changeable. Periods of rain or wintry showers, and strong winds are likely, especially in the west, with brief more settled spells in between. Westerly or southwesterly winds during this period will bring milder conditions to most areas, but occasional interludes of cold northerly winds are possible. It will be on this boundary between the colder and milder airmasses where any snowfall to lower levels could possibly occur. Towards the end of this period, we may see high pressure build over the north of the UK, bringing colder conditions and wintry outbreaks.

    Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Wed 27 Jan 2021

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

    Not true Jay.....the fronts have been corrected south bringing more of South Wales and southern England in to play

    03B19068-5377-4854-A008-0A7AC2A06D31.png

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    4 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    Not true Jay.....the fronts have been corrected south bringing more of South Wales and southern England in to play

    03B19068-5377-4854-A008-0A7AC2A06D31.png

    I was talking about the automated forecasts sorry. That looks ok I guess. Is Sunday looking decent?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Blackwood 230m asl
  • Location: Blackwood 230m asl

    Hmm.. met office going for heavy snow...bbc going for heavy rain 🤔🤔🤔🤔....met the battle of the forecasts commence (and change several times over the next 36-48 hours) 😂😂

    Far to many swings and roundabouts to get around and over first to call anything yet 

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    1 minute ago, dbaloo said:

    Hmm.. met office going for heavy snow...bbc going for heavy rain 🤔🤔🤔🤔....met the battle of the forecasts commence (and change several times over the next 36-48 hours) 😂😂

    Far to many swings and roundabouts to get around and over first to call anything yet 

    It'll probably go down to the day itself no doubt. Automated forecast is showing snow or sleet for my area.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs

    A word of caution guys, don’t stay glued to the automated forecasts, more UTurns than a Tory government! 

     

    Interestingly I have noticed nearly all models/snow accumulation forecasts show no snow for pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire on a regular basis but are nearly always wrong. The only time they proved correct, broadly speaking was the Beast From the East. 

    They often show snow in coastal Ceredigion and Gwynedd for example which doesn’t materialise yet last weekend I think roughly speaking we had deeper snow here than most of South Wales (12cm) but the forecast all showed a lack of snow. Likewise North pembs as well, they did really well! 

    How refined are these models to local topography for example? 

     

     

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs

    Diolch @Grifffor pointing it out in the mod thread! Matt Hugo tweeting about the possibility of a significant snow event in Wales on Saturday. 

     

    Let’s see if a warning is issued later! 

    Edited by Cymro
    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Cymro said:

    Diolch @Grifffor pointing it out in the mod thread! Matt Hugo tweeting about the possibility of a significant snow event in Wales on Saturday. 

     

    Let’s see if a warning is issued later! 

    Paid gwrando i beth mae gaeaf saith deg naw yn ddweud 😉 

    Edited by Griff
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    8 minutes ago, Cymro said:

    Diolch @Grifffor pointing it out in the mod thread! Matt Hugo tweeting about the possibility of a significant snow event in Wales on Saturday. 

     

    Let’s see if a warning is issued later! 

    Where in Wales?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
    8 minutes ago, Cymro said:

    Diolch @Grifffor pointing it out in the mod thread! Matt Hugo tweeting about the possibility of a significant snow event in Wales on Saturday. 

     

    Let’s see if a warning is issued later! 

     

    BB1EE698-32AB-4D24-A4F3-9DACC97B7025.png

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold, thunder and lightning.
  • Location: Cardiff 9m (32ft) asl

    Being only 9m asl I am not expecting anything but rain for me, I live in hope though.  

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    1 hour ago, dbaloo said:

    Hmm.. met office going for heavy snow...bbc going for heavy rain 🤔🤔🤔🤔....met the battle of the forecasts commence (and change several times over the next 36-48 hours) 😂😂

    Far to many swings and roundabouts to get around and over first to call anything yet 

    yesterday it was the other way round

    could it be they are checking each others forecast and finding what the others are seeing and amending each other

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    This also from Matt H - EC ENS Snowfall for Saturday.

    This is an average of all 51 EC Ensemble members I believe, so a strong signal for significant snowfall for Saturday for mid and north wales in particular. I would expect a MetO warning at 11 given only less than 48 hours away 

    Less chance say beacons south at the moment of a significant snowfall (EC still shows 3-5cm for valleys) but certainly time for changes there. 

    Either way pretty chuffed we’re talking about a potentially good snow event again within a week! 

    D5C5B06E-4D3B-4E40-8059-F4BBEF3D76C0.png

    Edited by bradymk
    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    UKV Extended goes for an all rain event between 12am and 6am on Saturday, before turning to snow on high ground in mid Wales, and clearing South Eastwards with a trail of rain sleet and snow. 

    image.thumb.png.0f488807fce2ef923550b435a28d93a4.pngimage.thumb.png.7978429d31f8f8792f5dcd88f46f92ac.pngimage.thumb.png.701d7a4a31c74117f6300189efb288d4.png   

     

    Sunday brings a spell of sleet to coastal areas and snow further in land on higher ground

    image.thumb.png.3d1923494b39c5435ef298671722fa49.png

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    1 hour ago, mattrout92 said:

    UKV Extended goes for an all rain event between 12am and 6am on Saturday, before turning to snow on high ground in mid Wales, and clearing South Eastwards with a trail of rain sleet and snow. 

    image.thumb.png.0f488807fce2ef923550b435a28d93a4.pngimage.thumb.png.7978429d31f8f8792f5dcd88f46f92ac.pngimage.thumb.png.701d7a4a31c74117f6300189efb288d4.png   

     

    Sunday brings a spell of sleet to coastal areas and snow further in land on higher ground

    image.thumb.png.3d1923494b39c5435ef298671722fa49.png

    Not expecting much snow here the way it's going.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
     Share

    • LIne convection and suspected Tornado damage for eastern England

      Quite a start to the working week with torrential rain, squally winds and possible tornado damage near Hull and near Grimsby. Tiles off, fences and walls damaged and a motorhome on its roof! Read more here

      Jo Farrow
      Jo Farrow
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Autumn arrives. A soggy start to the week with blustery downpours to follow

      Quite some rain for Monday morning. Vigorous line convection as a cold front heads east. Behind that, cooler air, blustery showers with some hefty downpours but brighter. Unsettled this week. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 1

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-09-27 07:07:33 Valid: 27/09/2021 0600 - 28/09/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - MON 27 SEPT 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 1
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...