Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, bradymk said:

UKV next out - Much better snow risk for all than earlier runs. However precip is in fairly early and also clears through Wales quickly and stalls in England before pivoting. Good intensity though.

Any chance of it stalling nearer to us?

[bradymk]

3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Any chance of it stalling nearer to us?

Yes definitely a chance. The track still uncertain. On the day is never the same as the models as we all know!

[Marcus_surfer]

I hope the whole damn system stalls and pivots across Wales. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, Marcus_surfer said:

I hope the whole damn system stalls and pivots across Wales. 

Hopefully!

[dyl232]

Is it gonna reach north west wales anyone? No doubt we will miss out again

[shunthebartlett92]

Haha we've got a three way of tug of war for that pivot. In one corner, we have south wales, in the other, we have the west midlands (lets be honest, we've had our turn most probably but not going to complain), and in the third ring, the outsider at 15/1, we have the east mids. Let battle commence!

[andy989]

Just now, dyl232 said:

Is it gonna reach north west wales anyone? No doubt we will miss out again

To me it looks further north on radar than it has been modelled. So maybe

[Snowguy]

Best chance this winter. Starting to get that snow feeling. Definitely setting alarm to 3am!!!

Only Cardiff and Swansea could mess it up now and activate their snow shields but hopefully not.

[goosey007]

Euro 4 has the snow into wales by 4 am with highest intensity between 6am and 8am ...be intersting to see if it stalls a bit further east at the moment it showing to stall around Gloucester then drop back towards south east wales then fizzle out .........lets see whats happen 30/40  mile changes can make a big differnse for somethign more significant for some parts of wales

 

7am ................12 noon 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Remaining wet and cloudy on Sunday morning, with a mixture of rain and snow, heavy in some places. Precipitation clearing during the evening leaving behind cold but clear skies. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

 

[Loadsa2000]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Remaining wet and cloudy on Sunday morning, with a mixture of rain and snow, heavy in some places. Precipitation clearing during the evening leaving behind cold but clear skies. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

 

?

[Loadsa2000]

now showing snow sunday evening for caerphilly

[keithlucky]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Remaining wet and cloudy on Sunday morning, with a mixture of rain and snow, heavy in some places. Precipitation clearing during the evening leaving behind cold but clear skies. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

 

Yes fair amount of precipitation to follow  High.Pressure still high over Scotland, heavy rain was forecast for Monday now maybe Tuesday ,,,so transient snow as mild air tries to push in from the swest.

[andy989]

Nice surprise here in Dinoriwc now 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by andy989

[Jayfromcardiff]

19 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

?

Met office update for tomorrow.

[Panayiotis]

Arome bullish on falling snow for most of Wales, pivot point close to Oxford on this run. Given that this event will affect most of the M4 I’m surprised Met still haven’t increased the weather warnings, disruption across a large part of the UK looks likely now. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Panayiotis

[Loadsa2000]

8 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Met office update for tomorrow.

Got you

[dbaloo]

Well I never....its forecast snow for tomorrow ...and there's me penciled in for a half marathon in the morning

[Panayiotis]

Harmonie has been the most consistent and bullish model leading up to this event, snowfall amounts shown here

[Coilspring]

3 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Harmonie has been the most consistent and bullish model leading up to this event, snowfall amounts shown here

And the most inaccurate.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

UKV still looking good for much of Wales, apart from immediate SW coastal areas much the same story with the GFS.

ICON looks very promising for much of Wales also, but maybe being a little bit to generous with snow distribution? 

ARPEGE also shows snow even for SW and W Wales for a time before it moves further north and east across Wales, while for me in Swansea im expecting mostly rain and sleet even here a spell of snow cannot be rulled out:

Sweet spot maybe N/NE Wales where the front starts to pivot but thats dependant on how far north and east it gets.

The latest Met Office update as Jay has pointed out: "Mixture of rain and snow, heavy in some places" 

A quick look at the surface flow from the GFS I think points out why things are more marginal for immediate SW coasts - A S/SW flow right off the sea. 

Just to throw in another one - NMM 2km high res model (not sure how relaible this one is I believe its the higher resolution model fed by the GFS but may be wrong) good chunk of snow there for most :

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[keithlucky]

Just now, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

UKV still looking goof for much of Wales, apart from immediate SW coastal areas much the same story with the GFS.

ICON looks very promising for much of Wales also, but maybe being a little bit to generous with snow distribution? 

ARPEGE also shows snow even for SW and W Wales for a time before it moves further north and east across Wales, while for me in Swansea im expecting mostly rain and sleet even here a spell of snow cannot be rulled out:

Sweet spot maybe N/NE Wales where the front starts to pivot but thats dependant on how far north and east it gets.

The latest Met Office update as Jay has pointed out: "Mixture of rain and snow, heavy in some places" 

A quick look at the surface flow from the GFS I think points out why things are more marginal for immediate SW coasts - A S/SW flow right off the sea. 

Just to throw in another one - NMM 2km high res model (not sure how relaible this one is I believe its the higher resolution model fed by the GFS but may be wrong) good chunk of snow there for most :

 

Another point the front will reach Wales before midnight unless it dramatically slows!

[Panayiotis]

7 minutes ago, Coilspring said:

And the most inaccurate.

I’m not sure on the stats or reliability of this model. 

[andymusic]

that's what harmonie thinks is gonna happen - we shall see eh

[andymusic]

Just now, Panayiotis said:

I’m not sure on the stats or reliability of this model. 

a flippin site better than euro4 which has become more than useless