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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    4 hours ago, keithlucky said:

    It won't be 5c at 4am even in the South! I mentioned the other day that another down dwelling had taken place this week.This is now showing up in the models.Expect the mild spell to be constantly downgraded next week expect a cold northerly  by the end of next week.

    There we go bitter cold Northerly,unstable air flow.Even more snow according to ECM.As milder air pushed south .Never underestimate Stratospheric warming Andy get the Huskies ready!

    Screenshot_20210122-211956_Chrome.jpg

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    12z Oh look it’s a beast,  Gonna hit the south east,  It’s a stonker, quite a feast If it hits the South east!    18z Ok look a Kent clipper It will be brutal, 

    Seems to be dying out here now. Definitely a nice surprise though. This last month has been incredibly difficult for me as my mum passed away two days before Christmas. So these snow events have reall

    Looking good Wales !! Have to confess I've always had a soft spot for the Welsh, they were very very welcoming to Poles after World War 2.( I'm polish heritage). I used to go a place called

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    It’s a real tough one (as you might already know) especially as past events have these systems trend south nearer to the date. I do think any precipitation that does fall will be snow across most of Wales as dew points will be mainly below 0 from now until Sunday and 850hpa supports snowfall. Only the far west has the risk of precipitation turning more sleety as a band of warmer air (associated with the precipitation) gets squeezed across that area on Sunday morning. 

    At this current time and it’s long shot even 36hrs before the event, I’m going for 1-3cm across South Wales, with higher ground seeing 3-10cm (Builth Wells being the most north). 

    Note: Pivot point is around Hereford at the moment, but obviously this needs watching as this will be the difference between a slight covering for South Wales or something more substantial. 

    Edited by Panayiotis
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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd
  • Weather Preferences: Tips
  • Location: Pontypridd

    Heres the latest snow  risk Sunday  from the crystal ball 🔮 

    SmartSelect_20210122-220337_Samsung Internet.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    Tonights UKV pushes the precipitation through very quickly and has a much higher Northern and Eastern extent. Also risk of it turning sleety/rainy on the coasts UKV18Z.thumb.gif.fdf3f302255167d27aa91616f82d4013.gif

    Accumulations are only really on ground above 100m and away from the coasts

    UKVDepth.thumb.png.bc7e1e9865a8a79d1ece9fbfef795615.png

     

    Could do with some Southern corrections tomorrow

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    6 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

    Tonights UKV pushes the precipitation through very quickly and has a much higher Northern and Eastern extent. Also risk of it turning sleety/rainy on the coasts UKV18Z.thumb.gif.fdf3f302255167d27aa91616f82d4013.gif

    Accumulations are only really on ground above 100m and away from the coasts

    UKVDepth.thumb.png.bc7e1e9865a8a79d1ece9fbfef795615.png

     

    Could do with some Southern corrections tomorrow

    Still looks ok for a few cm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

    Yet another icy night after rain from earlier road like an ice rink

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

    What are the dew points and upper air temperatures across Wales tommorow night?

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
    3 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

    What are the dew points and upper air temperatures across Wales tommorow night?

    9CCE1487-0DAE-4C6F-A629-2E49BFC635BC.thumb.jpeg.a1c16e7bf1230bebbe21c5604d492ef3.jpeg
    B228E51F-C067-4F04-AA75-57EA56582D33.thumb.jpeg.5e5dea8a467b08630874384a9b815731.jpeg

    Dewpoints around 0 degrees and 850s are around -5 at 6am Sunday

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
    2 hours ago, mattrout92 said:

    9CCE1487-0DAE-4C6F-A629-2E49BFC635BC.thumb.jpeg.a1c16e7bf1230bebbe21c5604d492ef3.jpeg
    B228E51F-C067-4F04-AA75-57EA56582D33.thumb.jpeg.5e5dea8a467b08630874384a9b815731.jpeg

    Dewpoints around 0 degrees and 850s are around -5 at 6am Sunday

    Dew points and 850hpa looking good for most of Wales bar the far west (as per my earlier post). Hopefully we get that precipitation in! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

    Booooooom. Heavy snow here and settling on very frozen ground and them s❄️w flakes are humungous... Its a whiteout here. 

    Ooops Sorry, will post again this time tommorow or a bit later.. Just doing a **test ** 

    Thought I wake you all up though, NW Thread are doing good though. I'm happy for them 👍🏻👍🏻😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    Most models this morning are showing the band of precipitation moving through Wales, things haven’t really trended south which is great- HIRLAM is the only one which isnt interested and doesn’t make much of the system. It does look good for us in the South, best chance of the winter; wouldn’t be surprised to see an amber warning for the Valleys , possibly pushing south into Caerphilly/Cardiff/Newport 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ogmore Vale (500ft / 150m)
  • Location: Ogmore Vale (500ft / 150m)

    I wouldn't be surprised to see an amber warning being issued for some parts of Wales soon. If that does happen, I'm pulling an all-nighter with some wine! I am very quiet in here mostly, unless I feel that there is something to get genuinely excited about. Channel lows normally correct southwards, but this one is forming to the west of Ireland and tracking ESE. An odd situation this, with so much uncertainty as usual. If the pivoting of the front occurs just a little more west than forecast, this could be a very significant event. I just hope I don't wake later this morning to find out that the whole thing has been downgraded significantly for us. I have an entire facebook group ready to party with me over this!

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    Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL

    Light covering of snow here, over icy flooded roads. 
     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Yr Wyddgrug, Gogledd Cymru (350m ASL)
  • Location: Yr Wyddgrug, Gogledd Cymru (350m ASL)

    Light to moderate snow here for the past few hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    1 hour ago, blackrose73 said:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see an amber warning being issued for some parts of Wales soon. If that does happen, I'm pulling an all-nighter with some wine! I am very quiet in here mostly, unless I feel that there is something to get genuinely excited about. Channel lows normally correct southwards, but this one is forming to the west of Ireland and tracking ESE. An odd situation this, with so much uncertainty as usual. If the pivoting of the front occurs just a little more west than forecast, this could be a very significant event. I just hope I don't wake later this morning to find out that the whole thing has been downgraded significantly for us. I have an entire facebook group ready to party with me over this!

    I wouldn't bother staying up all night, it doesn't arrive until 5/6am by the looks of it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
    9 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    I wouldn't bother staying up all night, it doesn't arrive until 5/6am by the looks of it.

    BBC forecast had it earlier than that Jay

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    1 minute ago, PompeyFC said:

    BBC forecast had it earlier than that Jay

    Oh right, even for SE Wales? It's hard to tell sometimes with all the different models.

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    Posted
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs
  • Location: Gorslas 178m abs

    Sugar dusting here this morning and very icy. Looks good for tomorrow and with the front arriving at the coldest part of the day and slightly slower no longer 3/4am but 4/5am West 5/6am East. If it’s moving slower or potentially struggling against the cold air it could mean that the front is stalling further West which isn’t a bad thing for us in terms of a wrap around and more accumilation. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    With 24 hours until the main event, here's the UKV from now until tomorrow eve:

    UKVMorn.thumb.gif.42ff6fa8a17d9f2d1d042c13cfe95eb1.gif UKVDepth.thumb.png.abf6342e4febf3940659c792fd6be059.png

     

     

    Edited by mattrout92
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