Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Ian Ballinger]

So, we all looking forward to 3 days of none stop rain 

[freeze for all]

2 hours ago, Ian Ballinger said:

So, we all looking forward to 3 days of none stop rain 

I can't wait, we need to fill the reservoirs back up after the long dry spell we've had I honestly can't think of anything worse, actually I can it could b colder rain

[Marcus_surfer]

Its looking quite bad the next few days with some quite severe weather in the forecast. No sign of any cold for the foreseeable future

[Coilspring]

35 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

I can't wait, we need to fill the reservoirs back up after the long dry spell we've had I honestly can't think of anything worse, actually I can it could b colder rain

Yeah, a bit of rain would keep the dust down too. 

[LJ1224]

I've just been up on my roof sealing the leaky flashing with Chromapol before all this rain comes in. Fingers crossed it helps!

[thetipster]

Saturday looks of interesting next chance of snow we shall see

[Notty]

26 minutes ago, thetipster said:

Saturday looks of interesting next chance of snow we shall see

And Sunday and Monday according to GEM ...

[Marcus_surfer]

Looks like flooding is a real significant risk for the Midlands and Northwestern England coming up where those two air masses meet.

I wouldn't rule out a red warning being issued on the metoffice site for that area

[Cymro]

4 hours ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Looks like flooding is a real significant risk for the Midlands and Northwestern England coming up where those two air masses meet.

I wouldn't rule out a red warning being issued on the metoffice site for that area

What worries me is the tendency for this to shift west closer to the time! 

[georgiedre]

6 hours ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Looks like flooding is a real significant risk for the Midlands and Northwestern England coming up where those two air masses meet.

I wouldn't rule out a red warning being issued on the metoffice site for that area

Nope the Midlands won't be badly affected as the weather systems are coming from the Atlantic so therfore nw wales and nw England will take a direct hit atm... I personally think South Wales might become wetter than currently predicted 

[Sky Full]

Total rainfall for Wales up to 6:00pm Tuesday as predicted by the Arome high definition model, which doesn’t go out any further.....

The rain is forecast to continue through Wednesday as well, so these totals will continue to rise.  This is borne out by the Swiss 4x4 (based on the ECMWF model) which shows these totals up to 12 noon Wednesday....

Clearly, the MetOffice warnings should be taken seriously, especially in low lying areas close to rivers which drain the highest ground.  However, it is also true that some other models show lower levels of total rainfall, so we will need to keep watching to see where the worst affected areas will be.

[Loadsa2000]

Its still there

[georgiedre]

11 hours ago, georgiedre said:

Nope the Midlands won't be badly affected as the weather systems are coming from the Atlantic so therfore nw wales and nw England will take a direct hit atm... I personally think South Wales might become wetter than currently predicted 

Like I said last night this issue will be more wales.  Nw England.  I see met office have changed their warnings now to confirm what I said last night. Keep safe.

 

P.s 

Usually when we get a deluge of rain like that in nw wales we then get a colder outlook and this case is the same.

[andy989]

IMBY post-

I expect snow on thrursday after the initial rain deluge. I have elevation on my side and did very well last cold spell. 2 miles down the road had nothing. Favoured spots again, few surprises. But, expecting flooding first tomorrow and Wednesday. What a week we have coming up.

[andymusic]

[andymusic]

might be two chances this coming weekend for us

[andymusic]

[Ian Ballinger]

So whats happened to all this rain, met office says heavy rain now till Wednesday, but nothing on the radar 

[andymusic]

55 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

So whats happened to all this rain, met office says heavy rain now till Wednesday, but nothing on the radar 

warning doesn't begin till tomorrow

[SP1986]

what can I say... anyone living in a small village in Gwynedd at the bottom of a hill with the river running from the top of it... erm... !

[DeepSnow]

No more rain please, hopefully miss the worst here just like we miss the snow lol. I might attatch a boat to the car just in case!

[Cymro]

Bring on the Spring I say, fed up of the exhaustion looking for cold, when it is hell bent on not arriving properly at least after so much promise  If this pattern is maintained into March, this will go down as the best winter that never was synoptically! 

 

[Coilspring]

29 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Bring on the Spring I say, fed up of the exhaustion looking for cold, when it is hell bent on not arriving properly at least after so much promise  If this pattern is maintained into March, this will go down as the best winter that never was synoptically! 

 

Well put. 

[Jackfrost]

38 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Bring on the Spring I say, fed up of the exhaustion looking for cold, when it is hell bent on not arriving properly at least after so much promise  If this pattern is maintained into March, this will go down as the best winter that never was synoptically! 

 

I agree that it's been a bit frustrating for many of us but actually, compared to every winter since 2013-14 (with the exception of 2017-18) this one has been an improvement, with some lengthy periods of below average temperatures, thought never unusually cold or snowy.

Statistically the current pattern is very unlikely to hold through until the end of winter in March. The hemisphere profile is very atypical at the moment and the full effects of the two SSWs are still yet to be seen. As for this week, my main worry is still the amount of rainfall (the 200 mm predicted in Gwynedd exceeds the totals that brought chaos to the Valleys in Storm Dennis), but some wintriness is not out of the question as Christoph finally clears early on Thursday. Also, the weekend is too far off have any real idea about but it does look chilly.

Oh, and in no way am I ready for Spring just yet!

Edited January 18, 2021 by Jackfrost

[LJ1224]