Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

3 hours ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Look out Saturday

Other snow risk maps agree with this for Saturday ATM.The problem is nobody knows how fast east this front will get.We normally get west ward correction of the front, if it  even makes it to Wales! We also HP ,moving towards UK.From the N East ,Plus Greenland High building ,total bloody confusion.Enjoy the mild weather while it lasts.

[mattrout92]

Better on 18Z for Saturday. If this front stalls over and doesn't go too far East, with cold air digging in, it could be game on!

[Cymro]

I must confess this is one of the most bizzare and long winded weather model watches I have witnessed on this forum and I've been here since 2008!

[Cymro]

Just now, Cymro said:

I must confess this is one of the most bizzare and long winded weather model watches I have witnessed on this forum and I've been here since 2008!

Correction actually November 2006 oh good god! 

Edited January 11, 2021 by Cymro

[dyl232]

42 minutes ago, Cymro said:

42 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Correction actually November 2006 oh good god! 

Same here 2004, one of the very first i guessExciting times ahead. 

Edited January 11, 2021 by dyl232

[A Frayed Knot]

Some great posts and charts been posted in the MAD HEAD THREAD. 

Still only England biased as like the Beeb news (never a mention of Wales) who gives a Fck. 

It's a coming, Warm fronts from the SW against cold air. Probably a Nnw or even a Eastern... Who knows all up in the air to be honest.2 nd phase of a SSW and the charts are all over the shop like a bull in a China shop. 

We need to see the front more west and bang on I say... Seen it happen back in the 1970s... All is looking good. England gets the snow but we get the intensified heavy loads.. Biased I ain't... Fck England they can't even sort there Parliament out.... Cobra watch incoming

[Sky Full]

Just wanted to put these two images up from the GFS for the 21st January -

6 hours of snow for Wales:

 

38cm of lying snow in some parts.....

Still a long way off but even if this prediction is 50% right it would be an interesting event to say the least!

[freeze for all]

My feet are planted firmly on the floor and I won't start getting excited till the charts are showing within 36 hours, so much going on in the atmosphere at moment anything could happen and that also means mild wet windy weather

[Loadsa2000]

Looking good

UK long range weather forecast

Sunday 17 Jan - Tuesday 26 Jan

Settled conditions for most on Sunday, however light rain may remain across the far east with blustery showers pushing across north and western parts at times. Into the next week unsettled conditions will continue with winds from the north bringing cold conditions from Scandinavia across much of the country by the end of the week. Rainfall is also expected for the north with a risk of organised snowfall especially over high ground. Drier in the south with the potential for frontal bands bringing rain and or snow at times. Temperatures most likely rather cold/cold for much of the UK, but a chance near or slightly above average in association with any rain that cross the south.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 12 Jan 2021

[freeze for all]

1 hour ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Looking good

UK long range weather forecast

Sunday 17 Jan - Tuesday 26 Jan

Settled conditions for most on Sunday, however light rain may remain across the far east with blustery showers pushing across north and western parts at times. Into the next week unsettled conditions will continue with winds from the north bringing cold conditions from Scandinavia across much of the country by the end of the week. Rainfall is also expected for the north with a risk of organised snowfall especially over high ground. Drier in the south with the potential for frontal bands bringing rain and or snow at times. Temperatures most likely rather cold/cold for much of the UK, but a chance near or slightly above average in association with any rain that cross the south.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 12 Jan 2021

Looks like cold rain again for us then lol, things change for the better for us and we all c snowmaggedon

[Bartlett High]

20 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Other snow risk maps agree with this for Saturday ATM.The problem is nobody knows how fast east this front will get.We normally get west ward correction of the front, if it  even makes it to Wales! We also HP ,moving towards UK.From the N East ,Plus Greenland High building ,total bloody confusion.Enjoy the mild weather while it lasts.

Trouble is we've been getting stellar winter synoptics since mid December and it's now 12th Jan!....cold always 10 days away! 

[keithlucky]

39 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Trouble is we've been getting stellar winter synoptics since mid December and it's now 12th Jan!....cold always 10 days away! 

The stratospheric warming starts around 16th ,with luck we will see the models firming up ,on the North Easterly getting established.around the 18th January L.P. Begins to move towards Wales ,the of warm air in SW .To battle with cold air from the NE.     

[keithlucky]

22 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Other snow risk maps agree with this for Saturday ATM.The problem is nobody knows how fast east this front will get.We normally get west ward correction of the front, if it  even makes it to Wales! We also HP ,moving towards UK.From the N East ,Plus Greenland High building ,total bloody confusion.Enjoy the mild weather while it lasts.

You can watch model outputs as much as you like still the old fashioned fax charts! Are your best cannot beat experience.As I said always corrections westward.Latest fax showing Wednesday rain stalling over central areas(signs of pressure building over continent)not a mentioned by anybody,So Saturday potential sleet snow is still on.Qùestion is can get continental air to undercut the front?to turn the rain to snow.

Edited January 12, 2021 by keithlucky

[andy989]

I've been way to busy to keep up past couple days. Skim read the model thread (deadly I know). Seen some musing posts on potential snow event from a front Thursday into weekend? Again, only skim read. What's the deal? High ground only? Or no ground at all and just rain? Help a busy fellow out

[Ian Ballinger]

29 minutes ago, andy989 said:

I've been way to busy to keep up past couple days. Skim read the model thread (deadly I know). Seen some musing posts on potential snow event from a front Thursday into weekend? Again, only skim read. What's the deal? High ground only? Or no ground at all and just rain? Help a busy fellow out

Rain for Wales I believe 

[andymusic]

7- 8 days away 20th jan

wales is buried

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by andymusic

[Jackfrost]

Whew, that's admittedly a bit of a monster Wales-wide snowfall on the 18Z GFS for the 19th-20th.

[andymusic]

[andy989]

3 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Whew, that's admittedly a bit of a monster Wales-wide snowfall on the 18Z GFS for the 19th-20th.

Hope so. Though I have done very well for snow from cold spell just gone, I'd love another. It would be a classic cold spell/mild blip/reload from an imby perspective. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by andy989

[andymusic]

way out in la la land fI on the 25th jan we have a nice top up

Edited January 12, 2021 by andymusic

[andymusic]

[A Frayed Knot]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

Looks nice butty and let's hope it comes onboard. 

Things are changing every day and I reckon is going to be in a good spot like 78. Also the Mad thread has gone quiet as it ain't snowing in there back gardens. 

Oh I feel for them NOT.. Biased in there big time and lots of toys throwing from there prams and nappies being pulled up

Anyhow just seen BBC forecast and it's 100% different to ITV anyone know why as itv are talking about possible snow Thursday but BBC ain't having any of it. 

AFK. 

[dbaloo]

It's all changed in the mod thread this morning.....doom and gloom, toys out the pram, dummies on the floor...stay safe, protect the NHS.....stay out of the mod thread

[LJ1224]

 

[Marcus_surfer]

It will probably be rain or mixed. I have to say the models look rather poor for us southerners