Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Marcus_surfer]

Ice build up from where the tide turned on Swansea Bay, very cool but not great for making snowballs lol 

[freeze for all]

What a fantastic looking morning, like a winter wonderland, must have had some freezing fog at 1 point because everything is white out there this morning 

[Loadsa2000]

About as clear as mud

Wales weather forecast

Sunday 10 Jan - Thursday 14 Jan

Headline:

Dry at first but becoming milder and wet on Monday.

Today:

A cold start with a few fog patches. Remaining largely dry throughout the day with sunny spells at times. Chance of a few isolated showers around the coast. Becoming milder. Maximum temperature 8 °C.

Tonight:

Cloud building during the evening with perhaps some patchy light rain. Overnight a few clearer spells before cloud thickens from the northwest by dawn. A milder night in the north. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

Monday:

Cloud thickening throughout the morning with outbreaks of heavy rain during the afternoon. A mild and windy day. Skies clearing overnight and turning colder with a frost in the north. Maximum temperature 10 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Colder with sunshine on Tuesday although cloudier with perhaps rain in the far south and west. Outbreaks of heavy rain on Wednesday and milder. Drier on Thursday with sunny spells.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sun 10 Jan 2021

UK long range weather forecast

Thursday 14 Jan - Saturday 23 Jan

Most likely unsettled with rain and hill snow spreading north and east on Thursday. Drier conditions following later in the week but with a chance of further spells of rain arriving from the west. Mild in the south and west, and colder further north and east. Into the following week, rather unsettled conditions with spells of rain and perhaps strong winds will cross the UK at times. The heaviest and most prolonged periods of rainfall are more likely in the south and west. Drier and more settled conditions are more likely in the north and east. Temperatures are uncertain with colder weather more likely in the north and east and milder conditions in the south and west. However, there is a chance of cold spells for all areas.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sun 10 Jan 2021

Saturday 23 Jan - Saturday 6 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for weaker than average westerly winds with Atlantic systems likely to track further south than normal. Therefore, for the north of the UK it is expected to be drier than normal with temperatures around average to a little below. Further south there is an increased chance of unsettled conditions, with above average precipitation and with temperatures slightly above average. Through this period there is a greater than average chance of cold spells across the UK with the associated risk of wintry hazards. There is potential at times for significant snowfall on the boundary between milder and colder air masses, with greatest risk across central and northern areas.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sun 10 Jan 2021

[Loadsa2000]

this could be good

[Marcus_surfer]

Chaos in the model thread this morning and some good charts starting to appear. Just a word of warning that most of these charts are a long way off and things can change for the better or worse so dont get too caught up in the details right now. Things can go very wrong very quickly so i would view that thread with caution right now. Alot of one liners and +200hr charts

[keithlucky]

Come Wednesday a front moves west to east across UK,then it stalls on the east coast rain turns to sleet and snow.The front could stall further West if this happens ,this will show signs that the 2nd wave of Stratospheric warming over Northern Russia in driving The Hp .over Sweden westwards. Still all to play for a.t.m.We stuck in no man's land.

[andymusic]

gfs 12z is a snowfest with most of the country taking a pasting

[Jayfromcardiff]

41 minutes ago, andymusic said:

gfs 12z is a snowfest with most of the country taking a pasting

We can only hope for a decent snowfall.

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

gfs 12z is a snowfest with most of the country taking a pasting

Just a pity its 7days away.Then again by the SaturdayWales is cut off from the UK.With channel low stuck on Wales.

Edited January 10, 2021 by keithlucky

[keithlucky]

More unbelievable charts 0 max temperatures more and more snow.21st January.

[Marcus_surfer]

Likely to change and could go one way or the other right now...charts look interesting but we could end up on the wrong side of the cold.

 

Could be more of a snow to rain event which we don't need ...we need to get the coldest weather In first then worry about precipitation.

Those charts are so incredibly inaccurate that far out its ridiculous 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Marcus_surfer

[Ian Ballinger]

Just read the model thread, left with a headache  

[keithlucky]

57 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Likely to change and could go one way or the other right now...charts look interesting but we could end up on the wrong side of the cold.

 

Could be more of a snow to rain event which we don't need ...we need to get the coldest weather In first then worry about precipitation.

Those charts are so incredibly inaccurate that far out its ridiculous 

Yes totally agree but what is unusual is how consistent they are considering how far out ,and the met tweets they are starting to smell the coffee.Gfs global snow coverage in10days Impressive. 

Edited January 10, 2021 by keithlucky

[Loadsa2000]

W COUNTRY: Spell of avg to above avg temperatures this week looks temporary: chillier trend Fri onwards favours fall below avg. However, much uncertainty during w/c 17th as to ultimately just *how* cold (or not!) - as temperature spread below (via

@ECMWF

, #Melksham shown) attests

latest from Fergie

[Bartlett High]

Mild week coming up with temperatures in double figures midweek...no sign of any proper cold for now.

[A Frayed Knot]

1 hour ago, Bartlett High said:

Mild week coming up with temperatures in double figures midweek...no sign of any proper cold for now.

Thursday into next week then onwards  Next week week backbinto cold and very wintry and 3rd phase of SSW. Also don't go in the mad thread as they are all ramping do mongers who just post so much dung to get a like and bump up there premium likes... What a sad world they live in. Also the Sausage has been booted I think.. What a Murr that was. Never mind it will be Spring soon and I cannot wait and then Summer. I know we are all peeved of with the weather not doing what we want it to do but I have been isolating in my bubble for 20 days due to family members with symptoms of 19..

[Bartlett High]

26 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Thursday into next week then onwards  Next week week backbinto cold and very wintry and 3rd phase of SSW. Also don't go in the mad thread as they are all ramping do mongers who just post so much dung to get a like and bump up there premium likes... What a sad world they live in. Also the Sausage has been booted I think.. What a Murr that was. Never mind it will be Spring soon and I cannot wait and then Summer. I know we are all peeved of with the weather not doing what we want it to do but I have been isolating in my bubble for 20 days due to family members with symptoms of 19..

 

27 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Thursday into next week then onwards  Next week week backbinto cold and very wintry and 3rd phase of SSW. Also don't go in the mad thread as they are all ramping do mongers who just post so much dung to get a like and bump up there premium likes... What a sad world they live in. Also the Sausage has been booted I think.. What a Murr that was. Never mind it will be Spring soon and I cannot wait and then Summer. I know we are all peeved of with the weather not doing what we want it to do but I have been isolating in my bubble for 20 days due to family members with symptoms of 19..

Yes I saw Mr. MURR'S comment...bit out of order I thought and yes there is a lot of toy throwing going on so taking a break for a while. 

 

[A Frayed Knot]

Believe it when I see it. 

[Loadsa2000]

6 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Believe it when I see it. 

Be nice though

[Coilspring]

I love a bit of cold rain. Said no one ever. 

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, Coilspring said:

I love a bit of cold rain. Said no one ever. 

said someone in the sahara desert lol

[LJ1224]

Just had our wood burner installed so I'd like some more cold weather please!

[Loadsa2000]

Look out Saturday

[Coilspring]

2 hours ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Look out Saturday

Bet that's all changed now.

[keithlucky]

2 hours ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Look out Saturday

U ain't  see nothing yet second  warming starting in a 7 days record cold in Spain -35.8c the westward progress is slow but sure.Cold air moving across from Siberia .