Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

Should be an interesting drive over Caerphilly mountain when going to work tomorrow.

[Loadsa2000]

8 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Should be an interesting drive over Caerphilly mountain when going to work tomorrow.

This is what i got reusable 

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

This is what i got reusable 

Whether we get any snow is another question.

[A Frayed Knot]

1.8c here with Frost in many places where the fog is still lingering. Looks promising for this evening onwards, fingers crossed we see some snow. 

[AlexThe Great]

So what time frames can we expect the chance of snow tonight/tomorrow in the south wales area ? 

[helly in her wellies]

Snowing quite heavily just outside Porthmadog. Not sure if it will stick as the dusting of snow grains we has this morning melted first. 

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, AlexThe Great said:

So what time frames can we expect the chance of snow tonight/tomorrow in the south wales area ? 

Scattered snow showers anywhere across Wales ,around dawn 2am reaching North Wales more general outbreaks of snow moves south .reaching south Wales by dawn.

Edited January 7, 2021 by keithlucky

[Jayfromcardiff]

11 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Scattered snow showers anywhere across Wales ,around dawn more general outbreaks of snow moves south .reaching south Wales by dawn.

Any prediction on how much I may get in Caerphilly? around 70m absl.

[beefy201]

3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Any prediction on how much I may get in Caerphilly? around 70m absl.

 

3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Any prediction on how much I may get in Caerphilly? around 70m absl.

Station Terrace will get 30cm any where down the hill nothing 

[A Frayed Knot]

0.6c with returning freezing fog. Still white and frosty here with a hoarse Frost on the trees best I've seen here since 2018. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

5 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

 

Station Terrace will get 30cm any where down the hill nothing 

I'll be driving over the mountain tomorrow anyway so should see some snow.

[Jackfrost]

Absolutely perfect midwinter's day today. I know this cold spell hasn't been spectacular in terms of snow and extreme low temperatures, but I've really enjoyed it.

As for the upcoming snow, I expect a widespread (away from the coast and West Wales) but light covering of mostly no more than 2-3 cm for most, maybe a little more for some, and increasing the further north and higher up you are. What this is likely to be is a welcome reminder of what a little lying snow looks like rather than an event to be remembered for years to come.

Edited January 7, 2021 by Jackfrost

[DeepSnow]

Temp gone up to 2.2c from 1.9c, still expecting rain here on the coast. Have to go to my parents in Tondu in the morning so hopefully will get to see a bit of snow down there!

[keithlucky]

18 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Any prediction on how much I may get in Caerphilly? around 70m absl.

Anybody got snow Across central Wales a.t.m.

[PsychedelicTony]

Just absolutely chucked it down here... With rain. Bit of hail mixed in. 130m up but on the coast in North Wales. In fact looking along A55 traffic cameras looks like rain everywhere. Inland though someones gonna get an instant covering I wouldve thought. 

[bradymk]

Afternoon all! Looking at tomorrows potential snow with the latest 12z models; Arpege, Arome, GFS, Harmonie & Arome - Still awaiting EURO4, NMM and ECM.

Looks hit and miss at the moment on who sees snow. Each run I have seen in the past 24 hours has changed the amount of precipitation so still a lot of uncertainty, particularly the further south you are. GFS has been keen on this for a good few days so it may still have a good handle on it although its resolution is less than the Hi-res models now we're this close to the event.

Currently North, Mid and east Wales look like seeing the most precipitation but with some large local variances. Uncertainty then on how south this spreads before petering out, with some models showing more extensive precipitation in the south than others. It looks like being another mixture of rain/sleet/snow on low ground near costs with snow inland and on higher ground. The air getting colder as the day progresses however.

Could be a decent covering for some in mid Wales especially, north of the beacons. Would love it to be more extensive and heavier come tomorrow morning as models may underestimate the amount of precipitation. I am sure it will very much be a nowcast event as always. 

Hoping to see some falling snow here in Cardiff at some point in the day. However not expecting anything notable or accumulating here (Hope im wrong!).

Friday 1pm:

Friday 4pm:

[A Frayed Knot]

0.1c with heavy dense fog and bitter outside. I can't see temps rising throughout this evening into tomorrow morning so we could be in the chance of something wintry. Is it snowing in North Wales or any precip showing. 

[dyl232]

33 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

0.1c with heavy dense fog and bitter outside. I can't see temps rising throughout this evening into tomorrow morning so we could be in the chance of something wintry. Is it snowing in North Wales or any precip showing. 

Currently raining here 3c

[Marcus_surfer]

Temperatures increasing looks likely we will have drizzle and thats about it

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, Marcus_surfer said:

Temperatures increasing looks likely we will have drizzle and thats about it

Another let down by the looks of it. 

[Jackfrost]

A few updated thoughts (and I hate to be the bearer of bad news to anyone hoping for something more significant): my earlier prediction of a widespread covering of 2-3 cm was a bit over-optimistic. 1-2 cm locally is probably more likely. Also, I don't think we're going to see anything other than patchy precipitation south of the Beacons. The entire coast, more or less, is likely to see rain, with the south coast being mostly dry. In addition, marginality can't be ruled out away from high ground all over Wales. I'd put the "sweet spot" as being somewhere in north Powys and inland parts of North Wales, with 5-10 cm in some places, mostly higher ground.

Edited January 7, 2021 by Jackfrost

[freeze for all]

Ice is going to b the main issue for most of south wales not snow, temps and dew points are currently rising

[bradymk]

0.4c here in Cardiff but I would imagine temperatures will start to rise shortly as per reports further west.

The front that is crossing the country now, just west of Swansea isn't part of tomorrows wintry weather that we've been discussing above. We have a less cold airmass moving south eastwards at the moment across the country which is causing the temperatures to rise further north and west, but this is due to be replaced by colder air again as we move through tomorrow.

Early tomorrow morning then is the area of precipitation that is of interest and how far that precipitation comes south. As  JackFrost says above, most may not make it further south than the beacons but each model is different. All very uncertain but not expecting anything notable either way.

[DeepSnow]

Temps dropped a little here to 1.4c with the fog but not budging much. Im hoping now not to see any precip, I'd rather cold and dry than have any cold rain and then ice.

Where's those -10 uppers and a proper cold snowy spell . Still, half of winter to go, hopefully something will come of the ssw for us (esp low and costal areas) after the milder weather supposidly to come!

Edited January 7, 2021 by DeepSnow

[soupsurfer7]

Metoffice predictive radar has it all fizzling out over Powys and Ceredigion and then pretty dry tomorrow