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Posted
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
    7 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    GFS gives us decent snow totals.

    Yup. This from the higher res Arpege too keeps some good intensity in whatever we get. Tbh, even if we end up in Spring next week, 3 snow events in one winter puts this as a great one for me. Not a classic, but been a nice distraction!

    arpegeuk-45-83-0.thumb.png.a92e0f81ddcffd96bb84714da4271e5f.png

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    12z Oh look it’s a beast,  Gonna hit the south east,  It’s a stonker, quite a feast If it hits the South east!    18z Ok look a Kent clipper It will be brutal, 

    Seems to be dying out here now. Definitely a nice surprise though. This last month has been incredibly difficult for me as my mum passed away two days before Christmas. So these snow events have reall

    It's coming down now.   VID_20201230_154431.mp4

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    6 minutes ago, RhysWales said:

    Yup. This from the higher res Arpege too keeps some good intensity in whatever we get. Tbh, even if we end up in Spring next week, 3 snow events in one winter puts this as a great one for me. Not a classic, but been a nice distraction!

    arpegeuk-45-83-0.thumb.png.a92e0f81ddcffd96bb84714da4271e5f.png

    Nice snowfall Saturday hopefully and then winter can end lol.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
    11 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

    ECM for Saturday:

    image.thumb.png.490037fce17611ead1aecf35f8fba267.pngimage.thumb.png.2cedd713e33cac4ff535b4a6e6f35377.png     

    Also fizzles out by the next frame. That would be painful with heavy rain barreling through on the next front. My money's on Arpege / GFS / ICON etc, lol! Any idea how the UKMO treats it Matt?

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow & Sunshine!
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

    ECM 12z for Saturday if anything makes less of the front but still shows a period of snow.

    GFS 12z view on Saturday, not much precipitation about. Goes onto bring in a more widespread risk of snow away from coasts early hours of Monday.

    gfssat.thumb.png.640e6786dbf5da9dc81bb5f2d819a54e.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
    18 minutes ago, RhysWales said:

    Also fizzles out by the next frame. That would be painful with heavy rain barreling through on the next front. My money's on Arpege / GFS / ICON etc, lol! Any idea how the UKMO treats it Matt?

    Yep UKV Extended looking like this for Saturday, a bit better than the ECM! Not great for SW Wales though unfortunately

     

    image.thumb.png.e995b107588e6f90551e728cae0c5574.png.     image.thumb.png.80aa38f9d3a2f909677c893666e17bd9.png.      

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

    I wonder if we get to see some unusual  sized snowflakes if we get the precipitation this weekend? Given the marginality of the 850hPa I would suspect so...

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    5 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

    Yep UKV Extended looking like this for Saturday, a bit better than the ECM! Not great for SW Wales though unfortunately

     

    image.thumb.png.e995b107588e6f90551e728cae0c5574.png.     image.thumb.png.80aa38f9d3a2f909677c893666e17bd9.png.      

    Met Office will need to adjust their warning if that's what's expected. Half the time they don't make sense.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran - 667 ft asl
  • Location: Cwmbran - 667 ft asl

    Just seen Met office update showing risk of freezing rain on Saturday.  Now that would be a slap in the chops 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

    This winter can do one for me....potential potential potential but not a lot of snow in the coffers!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly

    Latest from Fergie. Make of this not a clue

    ricky. A hero-to-zero story for forecasters with *yet another* fiddly local weekend f'cast (& even beyond isn't yet wholly convincing). Re Sat, wide range of possibilities is obvious from models; frm German ICON (a decent model always perused in eg UKMO deliberations) to...zilch

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
    3 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

    Latest from Fergie. Make of this not a clue

    ricky. A hero-to-zero story for forecasters with *yet another* fiddly local weekend f'cast (& even beyond isn't yet wholly convincing). Re Sat, wide range of possibilities is obvious from models; frm German ICON (a decent model always perused in eg UKMO deliberations) to...zilch

    Double Dutch 

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
    9 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

    Latest from Fergie. Make of this not a clue

    ricky. A hero-to-zero story for forecasters with *yet another* fiddly local weekend f'cast (& even beyond isn't yet wholly convincing). Re Sat, wide range of possibilities is obvious from models; frm German ICON (a decent model always perused in eg UKMO deliberations) to...zilch

    He's saying it's hard to forecast this weekend's weather especially Saturday because some models like the ICON are forecasting 10-15cm of snow, whereas others like the GFS and ECM are forecasting close to 0cm

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    Just now, mattrout92 said:

    He's saying it's hard to forecast this weekend's weather especially Saturday because some models like the ICON are forecasting 10-15cm of snow, whereas others like the GFS and ECM are forecasting close to 0cm

    understood that, but how come there is such a big difference in the models. They havent got a clue by the sounds of it. Its been like this since start of January. To me the forecast recently are literally done by looking out of the window. Both the BBC and Met office have chopped and changed their forecasts by the hour 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedlinog
  • Location: Bedlinog
    1 hour ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    I’ve been a member on this weather forum for 10 years plus...then a couple of others before that. I can honestly say, and no offence to anyone, but the ability to accurate predict weather more than a week out as not really improved at all. Teleconnections as seen as a step forward but I think for our small country in the location it is in I doubt wether anyone could ever foresee our weather as it’s so difficult. If our experts were tasked to predict weather in larger land masses like the US I think the success would be much higher. Stick your head out the window is the way forward for us unfortunately 

    I completely agree and model watching provides very,very little information apart from wind and rain which is, unfortunately, our main weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, Coilspring said:

    I completely agree and model watching provides very,very little information apart from wind and rain which is, unfortunately, our main weather.

    And I imagine if we analysed rainfall etc...models etc would be incorrect! Just we are not too interested to notice. Not sure if we will ever crack the weather “code”

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    Posted
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL

    Well, Everton have just taught me it's definitely not over til it's over.... Have the models given up on it for good then?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedlinog
  • Location: Bedlinog

    I think winter has more to give. Experience says we don't have this cold and prolonged snow showers (or prolonged agony, delete as appropriate) without a decent snowstorm. We'll see. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

    Pretty cold out there with us now.

    -4.9c on my gauge. I think we get colder snaps when we get straight northerlies.  Better for us in terms of snow out west. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ystalyfera / Ystradgynlais. 130m.
  • Location: Ystalyfera / Ystradgynlais. 130m.

    I think we can pretty much all agree once more, an Easterly brings us crisp, cold, nice and dry winter days, better than all that miserable grey sky and rain (unless you're that way inclined - some folk are), but with little snow. Rarely we hit the jackpot of the low moving in from the West and stalling with a Boom and we get "Eira Mawr, Eira Mawr". These are rare, but great when it happens. 

    Majority of the time unfortunately,  the warm air pushes in and the cold Easterly is often in quick retreat, and it's snow to rain if we're lucky.

    What will it be this weekend? One of those rare Jackpot moments, or the usual 'so close yet so far' moment? 

    Seeing nobody knows, I will have a punt on the lottery this weekend, and at the same time the numbers are drawn, look out my window towards the lamp post and see "what's occurin'"

    Edited by Gee
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    Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

    Well, not what I was hoping to wake up to with the models. No real sign of snow the next few days and the it becomes spring like next week. I will enjoy the warmer weather though!

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    46 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

    Well, not what I was hoping to wake up to with the models. No real sign of snow the next few days and the it becomes spring like next week. I will enjoy the warmer weather though!

    Still a bit of snow being shown but not enough lol. Roll on warmer temperatures.

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