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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

    The warm front powers through - well at least for Wales anyway! 

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    12z Oh look it’s a beast,  Gonna hit the south east,  It’s a stonker, quite a feast If it hits the South east!    18z Ok look a Kent clipper It will be brutal, 

    Seems to be dying out here now. Definitely a nice surprise though. This last month has been incredibly difficult for me as my mum passed away two days before Christmas. So these snow events have reall

    Looking good Wales !! Have to confess I've always had a soft spot for the Welsh, they were very very welcoming to Poles after World War 2.( I'm polish heritage). I used to go a place called

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
    5 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

    Sunday snow possible. But possible snow to rain. event.My personal opinion is that HP will not wilt but will fight back and hold back front over  central Wales,and not turn to rain or March west to east across Wales.

    Plenty of time for upgrades but I think we're just going to be unlucky this time for any disruptive snow, so on to the next chase which 🤞 won't be to long 

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    Met Office 10 day trend is as always an interesting watch. They go into details about why we could see some snow with a risk freezing rain especially in Wales on Saturday as the front tries to push in from the Atlantic, but are confident we will return to mild and wet conditions by the end of the weekend and into next week.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    Just now, mattrout92 said:

    Met Office 10 day trend is as always an interesting watch. They go into details about why we could see some snow with a risk freezing rain especially in Wales on Saturday as the front tries to push in from the Atlantic, but are confident we will return to mild and wet conditions by the end of the weekend and into next week.

     

    Is Saturdays snow risk gone for South Wales mate?

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
    1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Is Saturdays snow risk gone for South Wales mate?

    No, there's still a good chance of some snow, this is a snapshot taken from the video (blue is snow, red is sleet / freezing rain, green is rain):

     

    525411270_Screenshot2021-02-10at16_44_11.thumb.png.f8d23e71d93c5dcae85fa68c53b2299d.png

     

    So it has snow for South East Wales and freezing rain further West

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    6 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Is Saturdays snow risk gone for South Wales mate?

     

    49 minutes ago, AWD said:

    12z ICON keeps the dream alive for Saturday (away from far south western parts).  It carries on its consistency and delivers snowfall for much of the inland parts of the region throughout Saturday;

    iconeu_uk1-42-69-0.thumb.png.9a2c045ba3077baa6478264285aa18c6.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-71-0.thumb.png.e732ac8cd69a4527e71018f040bc91e8.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-72-0.thumb.png.74b55813e15d741b3bd9d531282a4dbe.png

    iconeu_uk1-42-74-0.thumb.png.7f77f28cceb0137de560ce6fb5914414.png

    The above being snapshot of events.  Obviously it shows/forecasts snow at the time in-between all the charts shown above too.

    For Cornwall, Saturday is looking crap.  However, the model does continue to show some light snow for you overnight Thursday night into Friday;

    iconeu_uk1-42-30-0.thumb.png.faefc6a2d8f307979385ce3da6316abd.png

    The mighty ICON keeps that feeble carrot dangled in front of us a while longer yet.  Everything is against it, it's a rank outsider, but it is remarkably consistent (broad brush).

     

    25 minutes ago, AWD said:

    Wait, we have some semi-support for the ICON now.  The French Arpege model as swung quite a bit towards it.  The 12z run below;

    arpegeuk-42-70-0.thumb.png.aab0cce5019f5e727956fab377c24a06.png

    arpegeuk-42-72-0.thumb.png.00bd4ce67dea97491d88a22aac7f8c8d.png

    arpegeuk-42-74-0.thumb.png.56dcd79c2ca7cbf698ebe63d441e8c4f.png

    arpegeuk-42-76-0.thumb.png.987f62fe62b59a01a0f0c8472c05a5c8.png

    It's not quite as good as the ICON, in that it doesn't get the front quite as far east, nor is the PPN intensity as heavy as shown on the ICON, BUT compared to its 0z run, the best 0z chart is shown below;

    arpegeuk-42-84-0.thumb.png.29b5485e76ca67d0a986907ebd4d007d.png

    That's a pretty big swing to the ICON output.  Forget localised detail for now and just look at the difference between the 0z & 12z Arpege.  Still need improvements from the Arpege, but it's a big step in the right direction.  Could the mighty ICON really be onto something?  😁

    Here you go mate.  Obviously my posts are specific to my region, but to be fair, they are just as positive for Wales too. He's hoping we all see something white falling on Saturday.  👍

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    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    1 minute ago, AWD said:

     

     

    Here you go mate.  Obviously my posts are specific to my region, but to be fair, they are just as positive for Wales too. He's hoping we all see something white falling on Saturday.  👍

    Thanks gfs shows snow charts shows the same.

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    10 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

    Met Office 10 day trend is as always an interesting watch. They go into details about why we could see some snow with a risk freezing rain especially in Wales on Saturday as the front tries to push in from the Atlantic, but are confident we will return to mild and wet conditions by the end of the weekend and into next week.

     

    Really worth watching explains what could possibly happen

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    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    18 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

    Met Office 10 day trend is as always an interesting watch. They go into details about why we could see some snow with a risk freezing rain especially in Wales on Saturday as the front tries to push in from the Atlantic, but are confident we will return to mild and wet conditions by the end of the weekend and into next week.

    No way Gfs says ì

    I'm back Beastie Easterly whoosh!!! Told you.

    Screenshot_20210210-165638_Chrome.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl

    I see the models could be sending us on another roller coaster ride, lets hope we get some snow this weekend before.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
    3 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

    ARPEGE similar to ICON for Sat:

    Apgsat.thumb.jpg.6ee4d288faba8bb29ed98ca1b8d753b4.jpg

     

    Thats a upgrade so one good thing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)

    Looking ok for most for a spell of snow Saturday atm, hopefully will be heavy enough for all to get atleast an inch or 2 but then the cold can last to keep it around for 24hrs. One can wish 😅

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    From glancing at the 12z's so far, there seems to be a slight trend (Icon & Arpege aside) towards Saturdays front potentially suffering from the same treatment as Thursday nights.

    On a lot of the models it has trended further west and is weaker than previous runs. Of course this can be good or bad for us. If it stays intact and stalls over Wales, great. If it dissipates too quickly coming into the cold air, we may get left with very little, particularly further east. Although it may still colder for slightly longer.

    Good to see ICON sticking with its output and the Arpege joining. All to play for Saturday still and on to the ECM.

    With the Thursday night snow, more confidence tonight of this being a non-event unless you're in the far south west. Time for it to upgrade slightly but not many models at all showing any widespread precipitation.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Snow sun thunderstorms frost
  • Location: Cardiff

    Do you think the models are underestimateing the cold block be great if it stalls over wales and stalls the met are going for further cold next weekend think I read on here it might take a couple of attempts to come through 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow & Sunshine!
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
    20 minutes ago, bradymk said:

    From glancing at the 12z's so far, there seems to be a slight trend (Icon & Arpege aside) towards Saturdays front potentially suffering from the same treatment as Thursday nights.

    On a lot of the models it has trended further west and is weaker than previous runs. Of course this can be good or bad for us. If it stays intact and stalls over Wales, great. If it dissipates too quickly coming into the cold air, we may get left with very little, particularly further east. Although it may still colder for slightly longer.

    Good to see ICON sticking with its output and the Arpege joining. All to play for Saturday still and on to the ECM.

    With the Thursday night snow, more confidence tonight of this being a non-event unless you're in the far south west. Time for it to upgrade slightly but not many models at all showing any widespread precipitation.

    Yes if you look at the GFS the front on Saturday is very patchy, it will be interesting to see if the other models start making less of the front.

    Thursday night it clips the far SW but thats it, all models pretty much agree on that now.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
    27 minutes ago, Weather roller-coaster said:

    Do you think the models are underestimateing the cold block be great if it stalls over wales and stalls the met are going for further cold next weekend think I read on here it might take a couple of attempts to come through 👍

    Think it will break through by the end of the weekend tbh, but yeah by next weekend there is always a chance it could get colder again - perhaps not to the level of this week though. But, that's too far off to really know. It will get milder for a time at least though. Let's just hope it's late enough Sunday to give as much of Wales as possible the time to enjoy whatever we get Saturday 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
    1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

    Snow showing on met office forecast again 🤣

    I've got one flake at 9pm 😂 I've noticed the automated met forecast really doesn't like predicting snow far out - likely will keep it dry and then on Saturday morning give us 10 hours of heavy snow.... that happened last weekend haha. BBC on the other hand has had light snow throughout Saturday for all of this week - stuck to its guns!

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    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    Just now, RhysWales said:

    I've got one flake at 9pm 😂 I've noticed the automated met forecast really doesn't like predicting snow far out - likely will keep it dry and then on Saturday morning give us 10 hours of heavy snow.... that happened last weekend haha. BBC on the other hand has had light snow throughout Saturday for all of this week - stuck to its guns!

    GFS gives us decent snow totals.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    ECM for Saturday:

    image.thumb.png.490037fce17611ead1aecf35f8fba267.pngimage.thumb.png.2cedd713e33cac4ff535b4a6e6f35377.png     

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

    met office warning for all day saturday for most of Wales

    A band of snow is likely to arrive into Northern Ireland during the early hours of Saturday, then move east into parts of England, Wales and Scotland through the day. Not all areas will have snow, but where it does fall 1-4 cm are possible widely, with 5-10 cm, perhaps up to 15 cm over high ground. In addition to snow, some freezing rain may also fall in places, leading to very slippery conditions. Across Northern Ireland, snow is likely to turn to rain during the afternoon.

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