Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion


Osbourne One-Nil
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    9 minutes ago, Welsh_Weather said:

    I say all this without the UKMO and ECM on board and it’s still the least likely outcome but let’s see what the later models suggest. The MOs further update has remained bullish about cold weather taking hold again from mid month onwards and maybe this is why.

    In support latest met update

    UK long range weather forecast

    Sunday 14 Feb - Tuesday 23 Feb

    It will remain cold or very cold with strong winds on Sunday but potentially turning milder over western areas. Outbreaks of rain and snow, potentially heavy for some southwestern areas are possible, whilst staying mostly dry and bright in central and southeastern areas. Further into this period, snow and wintry hazards are likely to continue which could affect mainly northern areas and eastern areas, especially over higher ground but not confined to. Although confidence weakens later in the period, the best of any sunshine looks to be in eastern and northeastern areas, with unsettled conditions mainly towards the west. Strong winds are likely throughout with the risk of coastal gales and temperatures overall remaining cold, with mild interludes in the west.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021

    Tuesday 23 Feb - Tuesday 9 Mar

    After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Eastern areas are also likely to see some further snow showers, with the best of any dry bright and sunny weather in the north and northwest.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    4 minutes ago, marclt said:

    Met office warning for Thursday night/Friday morning. 

    15EBB524-64B0-43A7-96B2-6BC8AB1DDA88.jpeg

    That's as far east as Swansea

    This one covers the south east for Saturday nothing for here Thursday night

    Issued: 11:12 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021

    A band of snow is likely to arrive into Northern Ireland during the early hours of Saturday, then move east into parts of England, Wales and Scotland through the day. Not all areas will have snow, but where it does fall 1-4 cm are possible widely, with 5-10 cm, perhaps up to 15 cm over high ground. In addition to snow, some freezing rain may also fall in places, leading to very slippery conditions. Across Northern Ireland, snow is likely to turn to rain during the afternoon.

    Edited by Loadsa2000
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
    3 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

    Thats a s far east as Swansea

    This one covers the south east for Satturday

    Issued: 11:12 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021

    A band of snow is likely to arrive into Northern Ireland during the early hours of Saturday, then move east into parts of England, Wales and Scotland through the day. Not all areas will have snow, but where it does fall 1-4 cm are possible widely, with 5-10 cm, perhaps up to 15 cm over high ground. In addition to snow, some freezing rain may also fall in places, leading to very slippery conditions. Across Northern Ireland, snow is likely to turn to rain during the afternoon.

    not certain enough to issue any warnings for south east wales on saturday majority of coastal regions actually ....hopefully they will upgrade closer to the event as they become more certain...overall a positive step seeing as saturday 3/4 days away...so room to move either way....thursday/friday less so. .....but the warning for sunday 31st came out last minute so you never know.

    Edited by goosey007
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

    Thursday Night/ Friday

    very limited to south west areas 

    Saturday 

    looks like the Met are ruling out anything of significance for west/South Wales even on Saturday. 
     

     

    F6934A5D-7C3E-4989-9612-EF1928CBF177.jpeg

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    1 minute ago, marclt said:

    Met office warning for Thursday night/Friday morning. 

    15EBB524-64B0-43A7-96B2-6BC8AB1DDA88.jpeg

    You can see patchy snow just off the coast  of  pembroke that what left of the front.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly

    They have got a warning out for the valleys etc.

    Wales

    Blaenau Gwent

    Caerphilly

    Carmarthenshire

    Ceredigion

    Conwy

    Denbighshire

    Flintshire

    Gwynedd

    Merthyr Tydfil

    Monmouthshire

    Neath Port Talbot

    Powys

    Rhondda Cynon Taf

    Swansea

    Torfaen

    Wrexham

    Edited by Loadsa2000
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    Disappointing met office warning if you live in S / SW Wales. Still time for it to improve though as it's still 3 days away!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL

    Anyone heard off Jay? Just checking he's still ok after the warnings ⚠️ miss him out 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️😂😂

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Good to see a warning out for Thursday for the south west and definitely the best location for snow given the models currently. UKV 6z has some good precip rates in Pembrokeshire early Friday morning.

    Hopefully Saturdays can change to cover a wider area if model output continues to show snow for southern and western coastal areas too.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    16 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

    Anyone heard off Jay? Just checking he's still ok after the warnings ⚠️ miss him out 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️😂😂

    I'm here just busy at work lol. Yep just north of Caerphilly, letdown again.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
    21 minutes ago, bradymk said:

    Good to see a warning out for Thursday for the south west and definitely the best location for snow given the models currently. UKV 6z has some good precip rates in Pembrokeshire early Friday morning.

    Hopefully Saturdays can change to cover a wider area if model output continues to show snow for southern and western coastal areas too.

    Really odd setup im hoping its further east. Im just in the yellow warning but expecting a few flurries at best here

    Edited by Marcus_surfer
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
    6 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

    Really odd setup im hoping its further east. Im just in the yellow warning but expecting a few flurries at best here

    Yes each run is very different. UKV 6z had moderate to heavy precip in the south west early hours of Friday, 9z hardly any at all precip makes it even there. Its definitely one of those where we probably wont know until tomorrow 😅  Also hoping its further east too.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow & Sunshine!
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

    Im in neither warnings at the moment, things can change but at the moment i dont see the precipitation making it much further than Pembrokeshire.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
    1 hour ago, Snowguy said:

    Anyone in Newport under that precip?

    We had flurries on and off through the morning with larger flakes than Monday but nothing noteworthy. 

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Milford haven , pembrokeshire ,12m (asl)
  • Location: Milford haven , pembrokeshire ,12m (asl)

    The met app keeps changing! 11am or so it showed light snow from 6pm - 3 am for here in Milford Haven Thursday/Friday 

    Then 12pm update now snow 🤷‍♂️

    I realise these apps are rubbish but surely there should be some agreement by now !?

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
    21 minutes ago, Gez79 said:

    The met app keeps changing! 11am or so it showed light snow from 6pm - 3 am for here in Milford Haven Thursday/Friday 

    Then 12pm update now snow 🤷‍♂️

    I realise these apps are rubbish but surely there should be some agreement by now !?

    The met office forecasts are based off the UKV which run every three hours. At 11am today the UKV was showing this:

    image.thumb.png.6cef8d5b4df839722831761ae2c5b854.png

    which is why it was forecasting snow for Milford Haven. The latest run shows this for the same time:

    image.thumb.png.5d4760da74b676d52f665a51c3cad00a.png

    which is why it now doesn't forecast snow. It will probably change again in the next run so who knows what it will show next 😂

    Edited by mattrout92
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Milford haven , pembrokeshire ,12m (asl)
  • Location: Milford haven , pembrokeshire ,12m (asl)
    4 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

    The met office forecasts are based off the UKV which run every three hours. At 11am today the UKV was showing this:

    image.thumb.png.6cef8d5b4df839722831761ae2c5b854.png

    which is why it was forecasting snow for Milford Haven. The latest run shows this for the same time shows this:

    image.thumb.png.5d4760da74b676d52f665a51c3cad00a.png

    which is why it now doesn't forecast snow. It will probably change again in the next run so who knows what it will show next 😂

    It’s like there the wrong way round! 09z looks like the front approaching.

    06z the front already clipping the coast 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
    6 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

    The met office forecasts are based off the UKV which run every three hours. At 11am today the UKV was showing this:

    image.thumb.png.6cef8d5b4df839722831761ae2c5b854.png

    which is why it was forecasting snow for Milford Haven. The latest run shows this for the same time shows this:

    image.thumb.png.5d4760da74b676d52f665a51c3cad00a.png

    which is why it now doesn't forecast snow. It will probably change again in the next run so who knows what it will show next 😂

    Pretty crap for South Wales on Saturday going by the warning. They're obviously not taking any notice of the Icon.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
    2 minutes ago, Gez79 said:

    It’s like there the wrong way round! 09z looks like the front approaching.

    06z the front already clipping the coast 

    Yeah the 06Z managed to get the front into Wales, but the 09Z killed it off before it arrived

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

    Screenshot_20210210-160543_Chrome.thumb.jpg.da3dc689e24c94d326a27360600aa83f.jpgGfs precipitation charts shows light snow reaching Wales around midnight Thursday Weekend is  looking very interesting we are right in the firing line first Saturday simular to track of Thursday snow but heavier pp.

    Screenshot_20210210-160543_Chrome.thumb.jpg.da3dc689e24c94d326a27360600aa83f.jpgFront stalling and weakening .

     

     

     

    Edited by keithlucky
    Edit
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow & Sunshine!
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

    Latest GFS for Saturday:

    gfssat.thumb.jpg.552b2ad24c93a6abd7382695dfaa7989.jpg

    ICON is more promising for Saturday still but I think its being a bit generous with snowfall distribution, see what the ECM shows later.

     

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

    Sunday snow possible. But possible snow to rain. event.My personal opinion is that HP will not wilt but will fight back and hold back front over  central Wales,and not turn to rain or March west to east across Wales.

    Screenshot_20210210-162616_Chrome.jpg

    Edited by keithlucky
    Error
    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...