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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

    I’m inclined to err on the side of caution. It seems that the trend is for a return to mild. Depends on how messy the transition is and it could result in and East/West split. 
    The Lows waiting out west are packed with moisture.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Tredegar, SE Wales, 330m asl
  • Location: Tredegar, SE Wales, 330m asl

    Very very light snow falling here atm. Not even enough to show on radar 🤣 there are definitely a few flakes floating around!

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    UKV this morning for Saturday:

    image.thumb.png.e8de6fd233e0ea996ed23061a427c7a3.png.     image.thumb.png.27cfe8d38e5420b9c581697b6c45d14f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    7 minutes ago, marclt said:

    I’m inclined to err on the side of caution. It seems that the trend is for a return to mild. Depends on how messy the transition is and it could result in and East/West split. 
    The Lows waiting out west are packed with moisture.  

    We stuck in no mans land Hp huge.

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    ECM looks like this:

    image.thumb.png.2501cf3f9d1d46440d9fbabf212c1339.png.    image.thumb.png.d3480c4e83631a3a2f81bd16e3ffa04c.png     

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

    And the trusty ICON still has our backs! Saturday is still on

    image.thumb.png.bf92f79d18cbc84d51eae8045e19a1d6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Briton Ferry / Llansawel
  • Location: Briton Ferry / Llansawel

    Met office now changed to rain for here on the app for Saturday. Chopping and changing all the time. 

    With a hard dry frost this morning surely the cold will hold out enough for snow .🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    No real cross agreement again from the morning runs for Thursday or Saturday. Different solutions across the board.

    A good number still showing snow for Saturday, particularly the ICON. The ECM has also improved. 

    Thursday night - still a mixed back with how far north, east and heavy the precip is. GFS being the best for all of the south. Pembrokeshire looking best placed either way for some light/moderate snow.

    Turning milder late Saturday or Sunday then looks likely, regardless of what happens before hand. However wouldn’t be surprised still if we had some changes from the models at this timeframe.

    Models aside, MetO text forecast is not interested in low ground snow for Wales other than the light snow in the west Thursday night, which is probably the biggest negative of the morning but not surprised given the uncertainty I guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sofrydd, Blaenau Gwent, 213m asl
  • Location: Sofrydd, Blaenau Gwent, 213m asl

    Light snow here.

    Edit - Still snowing, a bit more intensity and larger flakes.  Nothing forecast 🤷‍♀️

    Guess this just goes to prove that the weather will do what it will, and sometimes the models get it wrong.. windows and lamp posts are better indicators I think.

    Edited by lynncradick
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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Some decent accumulation for Thursday night for Pembrokeshire, West Carmarthenshire and some other south western coastal areas from Euro4. 

    D406472E-3D36-4C2E-B058-5FE3C7846A39.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales

    Unfortunately no consistency from the models from last night...and certainly no upgrade as we draw closer.  Its a case of the models are flipping and flopping as cold air is really dense and hard to shift and professional i.e the met are not willing to put there head on the chopping block as yet. I would say nothing will firm up until thursday afternoon ......so until then its just a wait and see ...Saturday look most promising as we stand.

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    At the minute, BBC / Met are giving us down in Pembrokeshire a poor forecast, we have the snow just slight missing us with Saturday being sleet / rain. Lets just hope the forecast follows ICON for all of us to get a bit. 

    Light snow here now but nothing to excited about 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

    Carol on BBC has Cardiff at 3°c on Saturday, light snow and 7°C on Sunday, rain.  
    Unsettled for next week.  No signs the cold air will dig back west.  Snow to rain event on Saturday may be disappointing. But in Thursday night we trust! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Sunny days 25C Autumn/Spring: Rain and storms Winter:Snow
  • Location: Rogerstone

    Light flakes falling here again this morning. Shame it’s all gone Pete tong for the weekend and Thursday/Friday but at least we’ve seen some snow this winter in many places and a lot of us had lying snow from that event in January 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Newport South East Wales
    10 minutes ago, soupsurfer7 said:

    Light flakes falling here again this morning. Shame it’s all gone Pete tong for the weekend and Thursday/Friday but at least we’ve seen some snow this winter in many places and a lot of us had lying snow from that event in January 

    yes looks surreal against the backdrop of sun shining 

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow & Sunshine!
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

    Not much change in my eyes to the outlook Thursday/Friday's front mostly light and patchy, the ICON may have made more of it last night but the trend is generally lighter stuff with heavier bursts over Pembrokeshire.

    Saturday looks the most promising as per what ECM/UKV/ICON shows but again very uncertain in relation to rain/snow distribution. 

    Curious if the Met Office will issue any advance warnings today

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    Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
    14 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

     

    Curious if the Met Office will issue any advance warnings today

    We’ll Know in about half an hour... I’d expect a generic snow/ice warning now the wind has dropped and if there is any precipitation in the offing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow & Sunshine!
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

    Models take on Saturday's front:

    GFS> ECM>ICON> ARPEGE

    gfssat.thumb.jpg.d76b23a48157767e9b564b1cc1bd11f6.jpgECMsat.thumb.jpg.168f33f3ef434327b3260df5d5ebb5d8.jpg

    ICONsat.thumb.jpg.3c2b3183e3ef47d8cf566242457b73d2.jpgApgsat.thumb.jpg.e699884d0ed15ccd0db27a9d9b40fe3b.jpg

    Can certainly see the uncertainity there, how far north and east it gets, intensity, etc.

    Edited by SnowStorm(Jamie)
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    Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Weather Preferences: Storms and snow.
  • Location: Port Talbot

    This has been stressful reading over the past few days 🤣 it's on, off, on. Have very much enjoyed checking out the charts and keeping my fingers crossed. I guess we'll see what happens! 

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    Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
    8 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

    Models take on Saturday's front:

    GFS> ECM>ICON> ARPEGE

    gfssat.thumb.jpg.d76b23a48157767e9b564b1cc1bd11f6.jpgECMsat.thumb.jpg.168f33f3ef434327b3260df5d5ebb5d8.jpg

    ICONsat.thumb.jpg.3c2b3183e3ef47d8cf566242457b73d2.jpgApgsat.thumb.jpg.e699884d0ed15ccd0db27a9d9b40fe3b.jpg

    Can certainly see the uncertainity there, how far north and east it gets, intensity, etc.

    Yes forecasting by the big 2 tv forecaster has been dire to say the least.No precipation at all for Saturday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Weather Preferences: Storms and snow.
  • Location: Port Talbot
    1 minute ago, Loadsa2000 said:

    met showing light snow here this afternoon

    It's lightly snowing here. Just floaty flakes, nothing substantial but rare for Port Talbot! Ha.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberdare, Mid-Glamorgan. 202 ASL
  • Location: Aberdare, Mid-Glamorgan. 202 ASL

    The GFS now doesn’t bring in positive 850s until Tuesday for the majority of Wales(apart from the far southwest) and that is only for 24 hours before it sets up another deep cold scenario with a lot of undercutting. Now this is obviously not guaranteed but that’s the third run in a row that the GFS has hinted at this and it has to be watched because it was the first model to pick up on this current spell. It would only take a 50 to 100 mile westward shift to keep the cold over us and those fronts could stall over Wales all weekend and fizzle out without a major warming. With this scenario we wouldn’t require uppers much below freezing due to the surface cold. The feed still looks off the continent rather than the Atlantic. 
    I say all this without the UKMO and ECM on board and it’s still the least likely outcome but let’s see what the later models suggest. The MOs further update has remained bullish about cold weather taking hold again from mid month onwards and maybe this is why.

    Edited by Welsh_Weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

    Met office warning for Thursday night/Friday morning. 

    15EBB524-64B0-43A7-96B2-6BC8AB1DDA88.jpeg

    Edited by marclt
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