Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Marcus_surfer]

Such a hard few days ahead of forecasting so ill just upload this pic

[keithlucky]

9 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Also remember 3 times the met office have said the Atlantic would break through and they were wrong .So nothing is settled.

Well well met office makes yet another U turn. Front reaches Wales Thursday get to central Wales stalls and gets sucked dry by the huge HP across Europe. So 2 to 4cms across Wales. Saturday snow still on Same battle Wales right in the firing line 4 to 6cms snow across Wales as front stalls again.Hp gets pushed north by LP over Italy so wind  stays easterly.                Monday snow may not reach Wales so staying cold early next week .SO ENJOY our Welsh snow this weekend.

[goosey007]

18 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Well well met office makes yet another U turn. Front reaches Wales Thursday get to central Wales stalls and gets sucked dry by the huge HP across Europe. So 2 to 4cms across Wales. Saturday snow still on Same battle Wales right in the firing line 4 to 6cms snow across Wales as front stalls again.Hp gets pushed north by LP over Italy so wind  stays easterly.                Monday snow may not reach Wales so staying cold early next week .SO ENJOY our Welsh snow this weekend.

Best thing I've read all week ....good update Keith....hope your spot on 

[keithlucky]

4 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Best thing I've read all week ....good update Keith....hope your spot on 

Only small concern is front weakening Thursday to quickly so just a dusting .Saturday snow more active no worries there .

[snowy36]

1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

Well well met office makes yet another U turn. Front reaches Wales Thursday get to central Wales stalls and gets sucked dry by the huge HP across Europe. So 2 to 4cms across Wales. Saturday snow still on Same battle Wales right in the firing line 4 to 6cms snow across Wales as front stalls again.Hp gets pushed north by LP over Italy so wind  stays easterly.                Monday snow may not reach Wales so staying cold early next week .SO ENJOY our Welsh snow this weekend.

The ECW thinks its doesn't get that far and no snow at all , going out on a damp squid. What a poor cold spell if its right.

[Jayfromcardiff]

5 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

The ECW thinks its doesn't get that far and no snow at all , going out on a damp squid. What a poor cold spell if its right.

Yep don't expect any snow, by the looks of it the snow isn't even going to reach us.

[WINTRY WALES]

Terrible morning output...enjoy the dry and cold while it lasts

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Terrible morning output...enjoy the dry and cold while it lasts

This is why I find it pointless checking charts 7 days away when we don't even get any snow for a couple of days time.

[snowy36]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Yep don't expect any snow, by the looks of it the snow isn't even going to reach us.

I dont think it will happen and by the look of the charts has done a 360 and totally flipped to mild . We'll see if we get a weather warning from the Met , if theres a chance they will put one out. 

[DeepSnow]

Not overly cold last night, -0.2c atm. BBC weather just gave a good forecast, possible snow thurs/friday and the cold then winning out into next week. 

Meto give no snow here thurs/friday then rain over the weekend. BBC also gives no snow here on their forecast online for thurs/friday but then snow saturday/sunday. Be interesting to see how this pans out!

Edited February 9, 2021 by DeepSnow

[keithlucky]

I don't understand the the negativity  NO mild weather ,stay away from model thread.

[Jayfromcardiff]

4 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

I don't understand the the negativity  NO mild weather ,stay away from model thread.

Where did you get those snow amounts from? I can't see any model saying 2-4cm end of the week.

[goosey007]

22 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

I don't understand the the negativity  NO mild weather ,stay away from model thread.

I agree with this sentiment .......they are looking the day after tomorrow type scenario with 48 72 hour blizzard..with the odd wind up merchant is often carnage in there.

Oh and often is poor due to there location ..usually the south east!!!!

Edited February 9, 2021 by goosey007

[PompeyFC]

1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

Well well met office makes yet another U turn. Front reaches Wales Thursday get to central Wales stalls and gets sucked dry by the huge HP across Europe. So 2 to 4cms across Wales. Saturday snow still on Same battle Wales right in the firing line 4 to 6cms snow across Wales as front stalls again.Hp gets pushed north by LP over Italy so wind  stays easterly.                Monday snow may not reach Wales so staying cold early next week .SO ENJOY our Welsh snow this weekend.

Not sure what area in wales you are looking at. Metoffice has the atlantic bursting through for my area with rain saturday, sunday and monday

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

Not sure what area in wales you are looking at. Metoffice has the atlantic bursting through for my area with rain saturday, sunday and monday

Same here, sooner we end this cold spell the better. It's clear we're not going to get any decent snow.

[keithlucky]

Enough said updated 1hrs ago

[Loadsa2000]

Then there is this

UK long range weather forecast

Saturday 13 Feb - Monday 22 Feb

It will remain cold or very cold with brisk winds during the start of this period but potentially turning milder over southwestern then western areas for a time, but with a risk of gales at times here. Outbreaks of rain and snow, potentially heavy for some southwestern areas are possible across western and southern areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the east and north. However with a continued risk of snow showers possible in central and northern areas. Further into this period, snow and attendant wintry hazards are likely to continue which could affect mainly northern areas and eastern areas but not confined to. Overall, conditions look to remain cold but some milder interludes are possible with accompanied unsettled conditions moving in from the west or the southwest.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 9 Feb 2021

[PompeyFC]

10 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Enough said updated 1hrs ago

Carol had the front thursday/friday not making it to the UK. 

There is no certainty either way so I don't think predictions can be made either way at the moment. 

Edited February 9, 2021 by PompeyFC

[goosey007]

4 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

Carol had the front thursday/friday not making it to the UK. 

There is no certainty either way so I don't think predictions can be made either way at the moment. 

well ill stick my neck out and say we will definitely see falling snow before monday 15th is out .....it just going to be a case how it interacts with the block once its over the the UK as to whether it is falling but not settling or settles then quickly melts or settles and sticks around a day or so a la 24th Jan this year .....the latter is obviously the best case scenario. 

[freeze for all]

How many times have we had dry days forecast for it to turn out to be wet and miserable all day? The Atlantic will do what it does, bring mild and wet Just sit back relax and watch it all unfold and hopefully we'll be seeing snow, but if not there's always next time

[gareth moo]

If ECM is correct at +120hrs - it won't be snow after Saturday lunchtime. However, time for changes. Fine margins again.

[Lloyd1]

All forecasts now are favouring the Atlantic to go straight through, I understand that this is a tricky topic but just don't forecast that far ahead if you are that uncertain. I mean some forecasts this morning have 10 degree swings from yesterday, I mean that is ridiculous. Literally no point in looking at forecasts up until 24hrs. 

 

[PompeyFC]

Always a nowcast job in situ's like this 

 

[mattrout92]

UKV for Thursday night (S Wales 2-4cm) - (Pembrokeshire 10cm)

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UKV Saturday - rain to South West and on land below 100m, 5-10cm elsewhere:

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[Lloyd1]

I'm so confused, BBC Video Forecast just stated "the cold air is going to win" for the end of the week. Like what is going on haha this is so funny and frustrating at the same time