Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Coilspring]

28 minutes ago, soupsurfer7 said:

There is some truth in that (sort of). There’s an 18th century Welsh proverb ‘Eira mân, eira mawr‘ which loosely translates as ‘little snow, big snow’.... 

When you have big snowflakes it means conditions are much more marginal and it’s much more likely to turn to rain or melt as there’s probably milder air trying to mix in...Smaller flakes usually means that the cold air is much more entrenched and the snow would last for longer like with the beast from the east in 2018 when we had fine powdery snow but it accumulated significantly 

My mate is still a knob though.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Any chance of Thursday nights snow making further inroads? Or is it a done deal.

[WINTRY WALES]

Just any effing snow will do!

[PompeyFC]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Any chance of Thursday nights snow making further inroads? Or is it a done deal.

We really wont know till wed eve / Thursday Jay. Things like this almost impossible to predict. Hence why bbc and meto dont say anything with conviction 

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

ICONs latest view on Thursday:

Its still rolling out at the moment but Pembrokeshire may end up being the sweet spot Thursday...not often that happens.

Then shows heavier precipitation moving into S/SE Wales Friday am.

 

Edited February 8, 2021 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[Jayfromcardiff]

The snow is back on according to the ICON.

[snowy36]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

The snow is back on according to the ICON.

I'd wait to see tonights fax charts. 

[Ian Price]

Pic 1. Friday morning. Light to moderate snow before dying out as it heads NE.

Pic 2 and 3. Sat moring. Heavier snow away from SW.

[WINTRY WALES]

ICON shows it pushing through to reach East Midlands...I think this is a good step for us Welsh. Typically it never reaches as far as ICON shows...and hopefully will correct west a touch and stall over Wales And at least it shows the front breaking through now

[Cymro]

14 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Any chance of Thursday nights snow making further inroads? Or is it a done deal.

Jay, how long have you been a member of this forum? You should know by now that nothing is a done deal when it comes to the weather in Wales until atleast half an hour after it’s happened

[dyl232]

1 minute ago, Ian Price said:

Pic 1. Friday morning. Light to moderate snow before dying out as it heads NE.

Pic 2 and 3. Sat moring. Heavier snow away from SW.

Hopefully we will benefit this time !

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Cymro said:

Jay, how long have you been a member of this forum? You should know by now that nothing is a done deal when it comes to the weather in Wales until atleast half an hour after it’s happened

Since 2008! Crazy nearly 13 years, didn't realise.

[pyrotech]

Icon is playing with an idea fairly similar to UKMET hi res

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Icon is playing with an idea fairly similar to UKMET hi res

 

Looking good?

[dyl232]

If Jayfromcardiff changed his name to jayfromnorthpole i think he’d still be here searching for snow, wouldn’t you mate

[pyrotech]

Yep , looks okay,  Some snow, just need keep the cold into next week for longevity

 

[Gee]

1 hour ago, soupsurfer7 said:

There is some truth in that (sort of). There’s an 18th century Welsh proverb ‘Eira mân, eira mawr‘ which loosely translates as ‘little snow, big snow’....

Eira Man, Eira Mawr was always said when I was in school in Llandysul.

Whenever it started snowing with little flakes of snow that started sticking/settling, the talk and excitement of being sent home early would instantly begin,  because pretty much every time it seemed - Eira Man, meant Eira Mawr.

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, dyl232 said:

If Jayfromcardiff changed his name to jayfromnorthpole i think he’d still be here searching for snow, wouldn’t you mate

Haha, can't beat it mate. I've always been the same when it comes to snow.

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, pyrotech said:

Yep , looks okay,  Some snow, just need keep the cold into next week for longevity

 

Decent snow totals or are we looking at a dusting?

[pyrotech]

Looks like few Cm's and maybe fair bit more but at this time with so much uncertainty  lets just talk about potential.We do not need hopes raised at this time. it looks very likely we will see snow as Atlantic attempts breakdown, problem is if transient or not, 

[Cymro]

3 minutes ago, Gee said:

Eira Man, Eira Mawr was always said when I was in school in Llandysul.

Whenever it started snowing with little flakes of snow that started sticking/settling, the talk and excitement of being sent home early would instantly begin,  because pretty much every time it seemed - Eira Man, meant Eira Mawr.

Snap yr un peth fan hyn! Digon o eira mân ‘eddi ed! 

 

Ditto, plenty of fine snow today as well!

[Pembs458]

Latest GFS really holding back the Atlantic.  Precipitation does make to Wales, but not by much.  Actually makes Pembrokeshire the sweet spot with almost 24hrs of snow on Sunday!!!  It’ll be different again in the morning though. 

[pyrotech]

Met office Model, shows snow Friday, 3 hours. Then Snow Saturday that becomes Marginal later as heads towards London and decays. Seems cold may be fighting back late Sunday but close call, temps 3 - 5 c on this run late Sunday near M4 belt. It looks like a slow push East that goes nowhere, this is too tight to call .

 

[Pembs458]

3 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Met office Model, shows snow Friday, 3 hours. Then Snow Saturday that becomes Marginal later as heads towards London and decays. Seems cold may be fighting back late Sunday but close call, temps 3 - 5 c on this run late Sunday near M4 belt. It looks like a slow push East that goes nowhere, this is too tight to call .

 

Going to come down to nowcasting I’m sure.  There’ll be some frantic radar watching come Thursday night. 

[pyrotech]

GFS keeps us mainly dry but looks perfect to maintain cold, except it squeezes the Scandinavian high into Greece, that would be goodbye winter hello Spring, however its just another option. I say that because its against the MJO, so it would be a strong push by the low to force that, not impossible but just another of 100s of evolutions. Something we can say we are used to at the moment is models that can not handle the current synoptics.