Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Ian Ballinger]

2 minutes ago, Coilspring said:

Anyone noticed its always snow for next week? 

Always next week, and never for here 

[Coilspring]

10 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Only problem with this is we'll be out of the cold air by Monday. Still, fingers crossed. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, Ian Ballinger said:

Always next week, and never for here 

Bring on warmer weather, this is crap.

[Ian Ballinger]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Bring on warmer weather, this is crap.

Yes, at least Porthmadog tends to do well from the warmer weather 

[freeze for all]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Bring on warmer weather, this is crap.

This is better than the Atlantic bringing rain after rain 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, freeze for all said:

This is better than the Atlantic bringing rain after rain 

Warmer dry weather lol. 

[dyl232]

3 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

Indeed latest ECM:

Not sure what the latest UKV shows. Pembrokeshire looks best placed at the moment, unless the models continue to make less of this front.

Knowing my luck the front will stop a 1/4m  out in the irish sea before getting here

[dyl232]

3 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

Yes, at least Porthmadog tends to do well from the warmer weather 

Record holders an all that

[Coilspring]

Well I still think Thursday and Friday could be exciting. 

On a similar subject. As today has been snowing very finely, almost dust like, I remember an old friend once told me that 'small snow means big snow'. I.e small flakes equals more lying snow'. At first I never believed him. But after years of following the weather I've come to realise that's he's a complete knob.

[mattrout92]

UKV for Thursday - 2/3 cm widely, but light and patchy:

.    .

 

Saturday more widespread:

.    .    

[The4Seasons]

Week ahead 080221

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM

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The cold weather will last all week, although as the wind eases from midweek it won’t feel quite as bitter #Snow showers will continue in eastern...

Interesting update from met office. ❄

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

ECM keeping things on the cold side again, the above chart is a long way off and by no means anything special but it does show potential as energy from the altantic going under the block. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, mattrout92 said:

UKV for Thursday - 2/3 cm widely, but light and patchy:

.    .

 

Saturday more widespread:

.    .    

Massive downgrade on this morning's run then, that was showing quite a lot.

[Bafan]

It’s been lightly snowing/snizzling/graupeling most of the day here which I wasn’t expecting. Everything white including the road outside my house but not a vast amount, half a cm maybe lol. Still, nice to see and still coming down  Driving might be dodgy in the morning!

[Hywel]

2 hours ago, dyl232 said:

Any1 in north east wales getting some decent precipitation at the minute?

Small showers and flurries, just a dusting from today's snow. It hasn't gone above -1.5c all day so nothing is melting,  just blowing away.

[pyrotech]

Remember folks

We have no issues getting Precipitation here in Wales, its cold we struggle to get.

We have the cold and it will be difficult to move.

Breakdowns are our best option and Storm Emma was an attempted breakdown.

Models have hinted at a transient snow followed by rain even, now hinting at extending the cold instead. So we can not only see opportunity extended, but also chance of multiple attempt at failed breakdowns. Nothing is nailed on by ANY model including Met Office hi rez.

This can still be a very good even where everywhere in UK will have seen significant snow

Scotland ❋

East England ✻

Very good chance that South West and Wales will get it soon ✻

Central England follows ✽

Now with that as a fair possibility i would say its better outlook than all of last winter

Patience Friends

[Jayfromcardiff]

11 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Remember folks

We have no issues getting Precipitation here in Wales, its cold we struggle to get.

We have the cold and it will be difficult to move.

Breakdowns are our best option and Storm Emma was an attempted breakdown.

Models have hinted at a transient snow followed by rain even, now hinting at extending the cold instead. So we can not only see opportunity extended, but also chance of multiple attempt at failed breakdowns. Nothing is nailed on by ANY model including Met Office hi rez.

This can still be a very good even where everywhere in UK will have seen significant snow

Scotland ❋

East England ✻

Very good chance that South West and Wales will get it soon ✻

Central England follows ✽

Now with that as a fair possibility i would say its better outlook than all of last winter

Patience Friends

Met office showing temperatures rising from Saturday, not sure if the cold is going to stick around.

[Hywel]

Moderate snow falling now, mainly horizontal in 20 mph wind

[goosey007]

15 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Remember folks

We have no issues getting Precipitation here in Wales, its cold we struggle to get.

We have the cold and it will be difficult to move.

Breakdowns are our best option and Storm Emma was an attempted breakdown.

Models have hinted at a transient snow followed by rain even, now hinting at extending the cold instead. So we can not only see opportunity extended, but also chance of multiple attempt at failed breakdowns. Nothing is nailed on by ANY model including Met Office hi rez.

This can still be a very good even where everywhere in UK will have seen significant snow

Scotland ❋

East England ✻

Very good chance that South West and Wales will get it soon ✻

Central England follows ✽

Now with that as a fair possibility i would say its better outlook than all of last winter

Patience Friends

A good read thanks ....8 degrees for Monday on bbc  dampens my enthusiasm into next week ...

[dbaloo]

31 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Remember folks

We have no issues getting Precipitation here in Wales, its cold we struggle to get.

We have the cold and it will be difficult to move.

Breakdowns are our best option and Storm Emma was an attempted breakdown.

Models have hinted at a transient snow followed by rain even, now hinting at extending the cold instead. So we can not only see opportunity extended, but also chance of multiple attempt at failed breakdowns. Nothing is nailed on by ANY model including Met Office hi rez.

This can still be a very good even where everywhere in UK will have seen significant snow

Scotland ❋

East England ✻

Very good chance that South West and Wales will get it soon ✻

Central England follows ✽

Now with that as a fair possibility i would say its better outlook than all of last winter

Patience Friends

Hard to argue with that..Good post that

[keithlucky]

5 minutes ago, dbaloo said:

Hard to argue with that..Good post that

Also remember 3 times the met office have said the Atlantic would break through and they were wrong .So nothing is settled.

[pyrotech]

22 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

A good read thanks ....8 degrees for Monday on bbc  dampens my enthusiasm into next week ...

Its one model run, i can assure you every run Met Office model shows is different just like ECM and GFS, trust me i have just checked.

However even latest run gives snow Friday and Saturday.

They are holding back from decisive forecast for the end of the week in general and when mentioned they talk about potential snow and uncertainty.

Thats what model shows, different timings and extent for potential snow.

If the forecast for Friday is not decided, what does it say about forecast for Monday?

It says that current prediction (latest run) is one of many possibilities.

 

[snow freak]

i wish the gulf stream would just shut off.  Imagine the amount of snow we would get here in south wales if the winter temperatures were around 2c , we would be pummelled with snowstorm after snowstorm.  In reality, as soon as we get the cold, we get dry weather and as soon as it gets milder we get tons of moisture and rain instead.  I knew Wales waswet and damp but even my car seats have mould on them now.  That is ridiculous

[Lloyd1]

ECMWF on ‘Windy’ app still showing something to look forward to for Thursday through to Monday as attached and GFS is similar. Don’t pay attention to Met / BBC online forecast just yet, I mean the bbc long term video forecast said that there was a strong chance the cold would stay put. Thus, contradicting what bbc 10 day is saying.

I mean I’m normally pessimistic so take that in to account haha. 

It’s rare we get a chance to see an easterly going against the Atlantic right over us with the odds in the easterly’s favour so let’s just watch this space.

[soupsurfer7]

1 hour ago, Coilspring said:

Well I still think Thursday and Friday could be exciting. 

On a similar subject. As today has been snowing very finely, almost dust like, I remember an old friend once told me that 'small snow means big snow'. I.e small flakes equals more lying snow'. At first I never believed him. But after years of following the weather I've come to realise that's he's a complete knob.

There is some truth in that (sort of). There’s an 18th century Welsh proverb ‘Eira mân, eira mawr‘ which loosely translates as ‘little snow, big snow’.... 

When you have big snowflakes it means conditions are much more marginal and it’s much more likely to turn to rain or melt as there’s probably milder air trying to mix in...Smaller flakes usually means that the cold air is much more entrenched and the snow would last for longer like with the beast from the east in 2018 when we had fine powdery snow but it accumulated significantly