Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[mattrout92]

GEM Stalls the front on Thursday and gives hours of snow to South and West Wales

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Edited February 5, 2021 by mattrout92

[snowy36]

36 minutes ago, Fujita scale said:

I see Derek is Tweeting on the line of cold and dry, od shower skirting east Wales - then we get milder mid-week.

Never raise hopes from any easterly direction - we just need stronger winds penetrating the showers more in land and kinks in the flow!

Alas, not looking good at this moment, perhaps there still time for changes, as I am sure there will be.

JK

Need that Scandi High to save us or it might be a boring cold spell. 

[keithlucky]

31 minutes ago, andymusic said:

meto mention wednesday for the atlantic to invade but it actually happens on thursday

I still think it take a second attack from the Atlantic to get through.Good battle.

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

GEM Stalls the front on Thursday and gives hours of snow to South and West Wales

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goes into friday also - let's hope gem has the right modelling here - holding up the low and then stalling it

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Just after mid week and you can start to see the possible battleground situation taking form. Heights building over Spain/France but you can still see the high over Scandi on the GFS:

Ive just looked at the GEM and to my eye it keeps the high over Scandinavia stronger and further west - so the block holding out against the Atlantic more so than the GFS.

 

 

Edited February 5, 2021 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[WINTRY WALES]

We need a good ECM Andy

[dbaloo]

In gem we trust????

[snowy36]

1 minute ago, dbaloo said:

In gem we trust????

Well its the ECW poorer cousin .

[snowy36]

Can we get this to go 100 miles north 

[Pembs458]

The GEM would be a very special event for SW Wales.  Very rare.  I’ve seen the ECM follow the GEM before, we’ll see what happens at 18:30

[snowy36]

I see The Met will it rain thinks theres a chance for the snow to get further west.

[danthetan]

5 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

I see The Met will it rain thinks theres a chance for the snow to get further west.

Thats the latest UKMO fax looks like there could be more on that occlusion 

[keithlucky]

5 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

I see The Met will it rain thinks theres a chance for the snow to get further west.

Gusts 30mph should help showers to the West radar watch will be interesting.It's like chasing a pretty woman ,catching her is well worthit.

[DeepSnow]

Picking up my new (second hand) Renault Kadjar suv on the weekend so bring on the snow

[bradymk]

If we get to this point on Wednesday that the 12z ECM is showing, I think we'll see a good snow event at the end of next week. 

Comparing that to yesterdays 12z - less bowling ball style low, more heights to our north west and the low further west of the UK.

[WINTRY WALES]

Much better ECM!! Love it to get back to the charts it was showing 2 days ago

[Clair_Witch]

I rarely see any settled snow here, but when I do it's usually a surprise covering and not forecast. The models and forecasters struggle to get snowfall right the day before and with the breakdown still being 5-6 days away it's still all to play for. 

Keep the faith.  

[soupsurfer7]

Wintry showers starting tomorrow night for eastern areas like Powys and Monmouthshire 

[PompeyFC]

1 hour ago, danthetan said:

Thats the latest UKMO fax looks like there could be more on that occlusion 

Thickness is not favourable on that chart. 528 above north wales. What are the equivalent 850s at that time? 

[dbaloo]

Expect wobbles galore over the next 4-5 days...upgrades, downgrades, breakdowns and probably a few meltdowns but I think and I'm sticking my  neck out here that we will end up with a midweek snow event not snowmaggedon but also not a dusting here in the south east at least and possibly and hopefully more widespread....thats like a metoffice long-range forecast if I ever saw one

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, snowy36 said:

I see The Met will it rain thinks theres a chance for the snow to get further west.

Definitely worth watching early hrs Sunday could well give a covering over parts of Wales.

[mattrout92]

UKV for midnight Sunday

[andymusic]

ecm pushed back the low into friday now - so add a further cold/ice day to the spell

[blackrose73]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

ecm pushed back the low into friday now - so add a further cold/ice day to the spell

At this rate it'll be turning up on May Day!

[keithlucky]

21 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

UKV for midnight Sunday

Radar will be interesting to see how much pp is left on the front.