Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

21 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Where can I find those charts mate?

[Cymro]

Looking forward to dry days! 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Cymro

[A Frayed Knot]

2 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Where can I find those charts mate?

Tameteo.com

[keithlucky]

7 hours ago, andymusic said:

I'm not convinced the breakdown will be so quick and that easy - I think the cold "spell" will last longer with more Atlantic attacks before it finally collapses

No breakdown in cold for at least for 10 days.Snow will come down from the North Saturday anywhere in Wales could get a good covering.Then Easterly lasts for this period cold become entrenched in UK with snow machine (north sea)constantly feeding in snow east to west across uk all week. .Amber warnings across East Anglica. Amber across south UK. over the next week.This will be a winter go into memory for a long time.

[keithlucky]

3 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

No breakdown in cold for at least for 10 days.Snow will come down from the North Saturday anywhere in Wales could get a good covering.Then Easterly lasts for this period cold become entrenched in UK with snow machine (north sea)constantly feeding in snow east to west across uk all week. .Amber warnings across East Anglica. Amber across south UK. over the next week.This will be a winter go into memory for a long time.

Thursday for heavy still forecasted samples of the week ahead.

[keithlucky]

[Cymro]

57 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

No breakdown in cold for at least for 10 days.Snow will come down from the North Saturday anywhere in Wales could get a good covering.Then Easterly lasts for this period cold become entrenched in UK with snow machine (north sea)constantly feeding in snow east to west across uk all week. .Amber warnings across East Anglica. Amber across south UK. over the next week.This will be a winter go into memory for a long time.

I don't think it will go down quite as memorable in Wales simply because it will remain mostly dry. 

[Pembs458]

This mornings run are quite exceptional for a possible big snow event a week from now.  
Obviously won’t happen exactly like this, but shows the potential is there! 

[Jayfromcardiff]

10 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I don't think it will go down quite as memorable in Wales simply because it will remain mostly dry. 

By next Sunday parts of Wales could have 49cm I saw on a chart and that's not just higher ground either.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Jayfromcardiff

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Pembs458 said:

This mornings run are quite exceptional for a possible big snow event a week from now.  
Obviously won’t happen exactly like this, but shows the potential is there! 

Get the shovels ready

[soupsurfer7]

7 hours ago, Cymro said:

Looking forward to dry days! 

I know what you mean, the ground is soaked around here. You can’t go for a walk without ending up covered in mud.

[dbaloo]

34 minutes ago, Pembs458 said:

This mornings run are quite exceptional for a possible big snow event a week from now.  
Obviously won’t happen exactly like this, but shows the potential is there! 

Imagine that coming off, there would be polar bears everywhere

[Cymro]

43 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

By next Sunday parts of Wales could have 49cm I saw on a chart and that's not just higher ground either.

As in a week this Sunday? I've seen the ECM charts they look tasty but will absolutely change before then so try to manage expectations. 

It seems to me that there will be snow but perhaps not the battleground frontal snow we want due to the colder air being further south. I wouldn't bank on them even reaching Wales in the next 10 days. 

But I'm happy with dry and cold for now and hope I'm wrong about the snow but past experience has taught me not to get on the smowmaggedon express those in the East of England are currently riding, Wales rarely does well on a whole from a convective easterly, 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Cymro

[keithlucky]

Yes precipitation are a joke but big upgrade this morning for all.

[keithlucky]

8 minutes ago, Cymro said:

As in a week this Sunday? I've seen the ECM charts they look tasty but will absolutely change before then so try to manage expectations. 

It seems to me that there will be snow but perhaps not the battleground frontal snow we want due to the colder air being further south. I wouldn't bank on them even reaching Wales in the next 10 days. 

But I'm happy with dry and cold for now and hope I'm wrong about the snow but past experience has taught me not to get on the smowmaggedon express those in the East of England are currently riding, Wales rarely does well on a whole from a convective easterly, 

1991 12incs in Wales

[Loadsa2000]

Latest from the met

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Scattered showers on Saturday, wintry in places. Feeling cold. Drier on Sunday with sunshine. Breezy and feeling very cold. Many places dry Monday but turning colder with possible snow showers.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Thu 4 Feb 2021

UK long range weather forecast

Monday 8 Feb - Wednesday 17 Feb

An area of high pressure looks to build to the north, and it will likely feel cold or very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. Snow showers are possible across the country during the early part of the period, but most widespread and heaviest for northeastern areas. Drier weather to follow, with widespread overnight frosts, although wintry showers can still feed in from the east coast. Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air. Patches of ice and other disruptive wintry hazards remain a possibility for all areas.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Thu 4 Feb 2021

[goosey007]

12 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Yes precipitation are a joke but big upgrade this morning for all.

Ill see your 32 and raise you to 46 !  These are JFF at this range of course ......but i do think a snowy breakdown will very much be on the cards with 10-15cm widely at some point from Wednesday onwards........although never certain. a few organised bands of snow can pop up from saturday night just about anywhere  that may give a few cms .....but dry and very cold is the theme for us to kick things off......enjoy whats coming all.

 

[keithlucky]

9 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Ill see your 32 and raise you to 46 !  These are JFF at this range of course ......but i do think a snowy breakdown will very much be on the cards with 10-15cm widely at some point from Wednesday onwards........although never certain. a few organised bands of snow can pop up from saturday night just about anywhere  that may give a few cms .....but dry and very cold is the theme for us to kick things off......enjoy whats coming all.

 

May give us a blizzard but no breakdown for at least 10 days according to met latest 

[bradymk]

As others have talked about above, If I could ever bank a model run, it would be this mornings ECM.

It is unbelievable for Wales - a very cold, mainly dry easterly Sunday-Wednesday.

Then low pressure approaches from the SW and crosses the south of the UK, but we also manage to stay in the cold and the snow is pretty extreme as others have said above.

Snow depth chart attached. And also the generated forecast for Cardiff from ECM run.

[georgiedre]

Depending on wind direction we seem to get a streamer across nw wales with a North Easterly sometimes.  Probably depends on direction and coldness 

[goosey007]

25 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

May give us a blizzard but no breakdown for at least 10 days according to met latest 

Yeah sorry KK breakdown was wrong word .....I should have said or meant to say attempted breakdown ......stalling front basically. Ecm shows this at perhaps a worst case scenario and it is an outlier in terms of snow amounts but just goes to show what is on teh table for next week. Exciting times for a cold weather nerd like me lol

Edited February 4, 2021 by goosey007

[mattrout92]

That ECM is an absolute dream for Wales. Low pressure after low pressure trying to push away the cold air to the North/East with Wales acting as the perfect battleground, just goes to show what could happen but it is an extreme option for sure.

[mattrout92]

Some lovely totals on the GFS next week (Thursday) too:

the GEM also looking good

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, goosey007 said:

Yeah sorry KK breakdown was wrong word .....I should have said or meant to say attempted breakdown ......stalling front basically. Ecm shows this at perhaps a worst case scenario and it is an outlier in terms of snow amounts but just goes to show what is on teh table for next week. Exciting times for a cold weather nerd like me lol

Snap lol been a bird for 30yrs bloody long time until Saturday/ Sunday until radar watching day.

Edited February 4, 2021 by keithlucky

[PompeyFC]

some exceptional ramping going on in here lol 

highly unlikely those totals will be seen, great eye candy though