Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[andymusic]

10 minutes ago, Coilspring said:

Apparently the groundhog did not see a shadow so an early start to spring it is. 

i don't think it's happened yet - next couple of hours though

[andymusic]

just announced - 6 more weeks of winter

[Coilspring]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

just announced - 6 more weeks of winter

Excellent 

[andymusic]

Just now, Coilspring said:

Excellent 

just watched the live stream on youtube - brilliant too - let's hope Phil is right then

[dbaloo]

40 minutes ago, andymusic said:

just watched the live stream on youtube - brilliant too - let's hope Phil is right then

Would you advise us to be on ‍and polar bear and  patrol anytime soon?

Edited February 2, 2021 by dbaloo

[A Frayed Knot]

4 minutes ago, dbaloo said:

Would you advise us to be on ‍and polar bear and  patrol anytime soon?

I would advise investing on a ARK for the seeable future

[freeze for all]

This could b very good or very bad, depending what side of the cold/mild you are on

[andymusic]

1 hour ago, dbaloo said:

Would you advise us to be on ‍and polar bear and  patrol anytime soon?

i'd say could be interesting polar bear watch by next monday/tuesday

Edited February 2, 2021 by andymusic

[andymusic]

12z Icon's looking good for Wales with an Atlantic front hitting the cold air and dumping it's snowy goodness, so a good start to todays 12zs

Edited February 2, 2021 by andymusic

[Pembroke Dangler]

9 minutes ago, andymusic said:

12z Icon's looking good for Wales with an Atlantic front hitting the cold air and dumping it's snowy goodness, so a good start to todays 12zs

Yes the front looks like sliding to the south and wales remains on the colder side with battleground snow which in the past have produced a good few cm of snow could be a January 81 redux with wales getting 18 hours of continuous snow and the folks in Devon and Cornwall get rain such would be the boundary high risk high reward

[Loadsa2000]

met office has changed again

UK long range weather forecast

Sunday 7 Feb - Tuesday 16 Feb

Rather cloudy and cold across the UK on Sunday with wintry showers over eastern parts. An area of high pressure then looks to build to the north, and it will likely feel cold or very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. There is a chance of conditions being dry at times with widespread overnight frosts, although wintry showers can still feed in from the east coast. Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air. Patches of ice and other disruptive wintry hazards remain a possibility for all areas.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Feb 2021

Tuesday 16 Feb - Tuesday 2 Mar

Confidence is low for this period from mid-February onwards, but conditions could turn cold and dry towards the end of the month. Less cold and milder interludes are still a possibility due to weather systems arriving from the Atlantic. These systems could bring a risk of disruptive snowfall over the boundary between mild and cold air. Disruptive wintry hazards continue to be a greater than normal threat during this period, and snowfall is a possibility for all areas, but is most likely over eastern parts of the country. Precipitation amounts are generally likely to be lower than average.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Feb 2021

 

[A Frayed Knot]

9 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

met office has changed again

UK long range weather forecast

Sunday 7 Feb - Tuesday 16 Feb

Rather cloudy and cold across the UK on Sunday with wintry showers over eastern parts. An area of high pressure then looks to build to the north, and it will likely feel cold or very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. There is a chance of conditions being dry at times with widespread overnight frosts, although wintry showers can still feed in from the east coast. Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air. Patches of ice and other disruptive wintry hazards remain a possibility for all areas.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Feb 2021

Tuesday 16 Feb - Tuesday 2 Mar

Confidence is low for this period from mid-February onwards, but conditions could turn cold and dry towards the end of the month. Less cold and milder interludes are still a possibility due to weather systems arriving from the Atlantic. These systems could bring a risk of disruptive snowfall over the boundary between mild and cold air. Disruptive wintry hazards continue to be a greater than normal threat during this period, and snowfall is a possibility for all areas, but is most likely over eastern parts of the country. Precipitation amounts are generally likely to be lower than average.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Feb 2021

 

That's got Wales written all over it if I'm reading it properly

[andymusic]

another sunday fixture for us - start early sunday morning

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

another sunday fixture for us - start early sunday morning

Are we looking at alot of snow?

[mattrout92]

I like the look of this for the UKMO on Monday, would imagine it would bring in some snow from the South West, with some nice cold uppers to go with it

       

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Are we looking at alot of snow?

we're on the right side of the low incoming - bringing the cold easterlies in and mixing in with precip so yes should be a lot - be interesting to see what harmonie makes of it closer to the time - we'll know more come around thursday/friday

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, mattrout92 said:

I like the look of this for the UKMO on Monday, would imagine it would bring in some snow from the South West, with some nice cold uppers to go with it

       

very similar if not exactly the same as the icon

Edited February 2, 2021 by andymusic

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

very similar if not exactly the same as the icon

I'll get excited if it's within 24 hours lol.

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I'll get excited if it's within 24 hours lol.

the beeb - bbc plus the met office are all in plus most if not all the models - if this goes t**s up it'll be a monumental fail for everyone

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, andymusic said:

the beeb - bbc plus the met office are all in plus most if not all the models - if this goes t**s up it'll be a monumental fail for everyone

So basically a low will be moving up from the SW and hitting the cold air?

[andymusic]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

So basically a low will be moving up from the SW and hitting the cold air?

or the south east - looks like we got two raffle tickets in the pot lol - details of where and when the snow will fall will be via harmonie really much closer to the time - but over all it's looking exceptionally good

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

or the south east - looks like we got two raffle tickets in the pot lol - details of where and when the snow will fall will be via harmonie really much closer to the time - but over all it's looking exceptionally good

They don't seem too confident in the MOD thread do they because the GFS isn't playing ball.

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

They don't seem too confident in the MOD thread do they because the GFS isn't playing ball.

it's a south east issue again - i understand to some degree - we've had snow in Wales - they haven't seen a flake some of them - and where the small iberian low moves to will make all the difference as to whether they get a very cold easterly with snow or just cold rain

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

12z Icon's looking good for Wales with an Atlantic front hitting the cold air and dumping it's snowy goodness, so a good start to todays 12zs

Early days showers start to turn wintry the weekend .Excitement starting to build Frontal snow will try to push Wales in then slide away South how far North is to early to say ,Yes I'm going to say it blizzard conditions as Easterly wind picks up.Lets see what Fax says Saturday.

[keithlucky]

30 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

They don't seem too confident in the MOD thread do they because the GFS isn't playing ball.

Yes a east may not get its Thames streamer angry eastern weather watchers.Nice to hear met mention the potential for possible disruptive snow Monday in S West UK.

Edited February 2, 2021 by keithlucky