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Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion


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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
9 minutes ago, Welsh_Weather said:

I say all this without the UKMO and ECM on board and it’s still the least likely outcome but let’s see what the later models suggest. The MOs further update has remained bullish about cold weather taking hold again from mid month onwards and maybe this is why.

In support latest met update

UK long range weather forecast

Sunday 14 Feb - Tuesday 23 Feb

It will remain cold or very cold with strong winds on Sunday but potentially turning milder over western areas. Outbreaks of rain and snow, potentially heavy for some southwestern areas are possible, whilst staying mostly dry and bright in central and southeastern areas. Further into this period, snow and wintry hazards are likely to continue which could affect mainly northern areas and eastern areas, especially over higher ground but not confined to. Although confidence weakens later in the period, the best of any sunshine looks to be in eastern and northeastern areas, with unsettled conditions mainly towards the west. Strong winds are likely throughout with the risk of coastal gales and temperatures overall remaining cold, with mild interludes in the west.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021

Tuesday 23 Feb - Tuesday 9 Mar

After a potential spell of milder and wetter conditions for most likely western parts, probably a return to colder and drier conditions overall. Whilst overall conditions are likely to remain cold, there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. These may produce a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Eastern areas are also likely to see some further snow showers, with the best of any dry bright and sunny weather in the north and northwest.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021

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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
4 minutes ago, marclt said:

Met office warning for Thursday night/Friday morning. 

15EBB524-64B0-43A7-96B2-6BC8AB1DDA88.jpeg

That's as far east as Swansea

This one covers the south east for Saturday nothing for here Thursday night

Issued: 11:12 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021

A band of snow is likely to arrive into Northern Ireland during the early hours of Saturday, then move east into parts of England, Wales and Scotland through the day. Not all areas will have snow, but where it does fall 1-4 cm are possible widely, with 5-10 cm, perhaps up to 15 cm over high ground. In addition to snow, some freezing rain may also fall in places, leading to very slippery conditions. Across Northern Ireland, snow is likely to turn to rain during the afternoon.

Edited by Loadsa2000
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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
3 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Thats a s far east as Swansea

This one covers the south east for Satturday

Issued: 11:12 (UTC) on Wed 10 Feb 2021

A band of snow is likely to arrive into Northern Ireland during the early hours of Saturday, then move east into parts of England, Wales and Scotland through the day. Not all areas will have snow, but where it does fall 1-4 cm are possible widely, with 5-10 cm, perhaps up to 15 cm over high ground. In addition to snow, some freezing rain may also fall in places, leading to very slippery conditions. Across Northern Ireland, snow is likely to turn to rain during the afternoon.

not certain enough to issue any warnings for south east wales on saturday majority of coastal regions actually ....hopefully they will upgrade closer to the event as they become more certain...overall a positive step seeing as saturday 3/4 days away...so room to move either way....thursday/friday less so. .....but the warning for sunday 31st came out last minute so you never know.

Edited by goosey007
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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

Thursday Night/ Friday

very limited to south west areas 

Saturday 

looks like the Met are ruling out anything of significance for west/South Wales even on Saturday. 
 

 

F6934A5D-7C3E-4989-9612-EF1928CBF177.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
1 minute ago, marclt said:

Met office warning for Thursday night/Friday morning. 

15EBB524-64B0-43A7-96B2-6BC8AB1DDA88.jpeg

You can see patchy snow just off the coast  of  pembroke that what left of the front.

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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly

They have got a warning out for the valleys etc.

Wales

Blaenau Gwent

Caerphilly

Carmarthenshire

Ceredigion

Conwy

Denbighshire

Flintshire

Gwynedd

Merthyr Tydfil

Monmouthshire

Neath Port Talbot

Powys

Rhondda Cynon Taf

Swansea

Torfaen

Wrexham

Edited by Loadsa2000
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Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales

Disappointing met office warning if you live in S / SW Wales. Still time for it to improve though as it's still 3 days away!

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: freezing cold and lots of snow
  • Location: Llanharan South Wales 76m ASL

Anyone heard off Jay? Just checking he's still ok after the warnings ⚠️ miss him out ?‍♂️?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Good to see a warning out for Thursday for the south west and definitely the best location for snow given the models currently. UKV 6z has some good precip rates in Pembrokeshire early Friday morning.

Hopefully Saturdays can change to cover a wider area if model output continues to show snow for southern and western coastal areas too.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
21 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Good to see a warning out for Thursday for the south west and definitely the best location for snow given the models currently. UKV 6z has some good precip rates in Pembrokeshire early Friday morning.

Hopefully Saturdays can change to cover a wider area if model output continues to show snow for southern and western coastal areas too.

Really odd setup im hoping its further east. Im just in the yellow warning but expecting a few flurries at best here

Edited by Marcus_surfer
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
6 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Really odd setup im hoping its further east. Im just in the yellow warning but expecting a few flurries at best here

Yes each run is very different. UKV 6z had moderate to heavy precip in the south west early hours of Friday, 9z hardly any at all precip makes it even there. Its definitely one of those where we probably wont know until tomorrow   Also hoping its further east too.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

Im in neither warnings at the moment, things can change but at the moment i dont see the precipitation making it much further than Pembrokeshire.

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Posted
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
  • Location: Bassaleg, west of Newport- 35M ASL
1 hour ago, Snowguy said:

Anyone in Newport under that precip?

We had flurries on and off through the morning with larger flakes than Monday but nothing noteworthy. 

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Posted
  • Location: Milford haven , pembrokeshire ,12m (asl)
  • Location: Milford haven , pembrokeshire ,12m (asl)

The met app keeps changing! 11am or so it showed light snow from 6pm - 3 am for here in Milford Haven Thursday/Friday 

Then 12pm update now snow ?‍♂️

I realise these apps are rubbish but surely there should be some agreement by now !?

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Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
21 minutes ago, Gez79 said:

The met app keeps changing! 11am or so it showed light snow from 6pm - 3 am for here in Milford Haven Thursday/Friday 

Then 12pm update now snow ?‍♂️

I realise these apps are rubbish but surely there should be some agreement by now !?

The met office forecasts are based off the UKV which run every three hours. At 11am today the UKV was showing this:

image.thumb.png.6cef8d5b4df839722831761ae2c5b854.png

which is why it was forecasting snow for Milford Haven. The latest run shows this for the same time:

image.thumb.png.5d4760da74b676d52f665a51c3cad00a.png

which is why it now doesn't forecast snow. It will probably change again in the next run so who knows what it will show next

Edited by mattrout92
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Posted
  • Location: Milford haven , pembrokeshire ,12m (asl)
  • Location: Milford haven , pembrokeshire ,12m (asl)
4 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

The met office forecasts are based off the UKV which run every three hours. At 11am today the UKV was showing this:

image.thumb.png.6cef8d5b4df839722831761ae2c5b854.png

which is why it was forecasting snow for Milford Haven. The latest run shows this for the same time shows this:

image.thumb.png.5d4760da74b676d52f665a51c3cad00a.png

which is why it now doesn't forecast snow. It will probably change again in the next run so who knows what it will show next

It’s like there the wrong way round! 09z looks like the front approaching.

06z the front already clipping the coast 

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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
6 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

The met office forecasts are based off the UKV which run every three hours. At 11am today the UKV was showing this:

image.thumb.png.6cef8d5b4df839722831761ae2c5b854.png

which is why it was forecasting snow for Milford Haven. The latest run shows this for the same time shows this:

image.thumb.png.5d4760da74b676d52f665a51c3cad00a.png

which is why it now doesn't forecast snow. It will probably change again in the next run so who knows what it will show next

Pretty crap for South Wales on Saturday going by the warning. They're obviously not taking any notice of the Icon.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in Winter / Thunderstorms + Heat in Summer
  • Location: Blackmill, S Wales
2 minutes ago, Gez79 said:

It’s like there the wrong way round! 09z looks like the front approaching.

06z the front already clipping the coast 

Yeah the 06Z managed to get the front into Wales, but the 09Z killed it off before it arrived

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Screenshot_20210210-160543_Chrome.thumb.jpg.da3dc689e24c94d326a27360600aa83f.jpgGfs precipitation charts shows light snow reaching Wales around midnight Thursday Weekend is  looking very interesting we are right in the firing line first Saturday simular to track of Thursday snow but heavier pp.

Screenshot_20210210-160543_Chrome.thumb.jpg.da3dc689e24c94d326a27360600aa83f.jpgFront stalling and weakening .

 

 

 

Edited by keithlucky
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Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL

Latest GFS for Saturday:

gfssat.thumb.jpg.552b2ad24c93a6abd7382695dfaa7989.jpg

ICON is more promising for Saturday still but I think its being a bit generous with snowfall distribution, see what the ECM shows later.

 

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Posted
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl
  • Location: swansea craig cefn parc 160 m asl

Sunday snow possible. But possible snow to rain. event.My personal opinion is that HP will not wilt but will fight back and hold back front over  central Wales,and not turn to rain or March west to east across Wales.

Screenshot_20210210-162616_Chrome.jpg

Edited by keithlucky
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