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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
29 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

UKV is bone dry Thursday/Friday.

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Has this for Saturday, followed by rain on Sunday

image.thumb.png.88693be9b9942e612b808e0e70a271f0.png.    image.thumb.png.a50d565a248f896b4727ba3c29cd7573.png      

Those snow totals seem a bit high. Met office app doesn't even have snow for me Saturday.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

To be honest speaking about my location in Swansea easterly winds are not a good direction here for snow. We do alot better with northwestern cold winds or northern. We get the moisture off the Irish sea and this has created streamers on occasion with about 6-8inches in the early and late 2000s.

Easterlys are normally just dry , mostly cloudy (cold and windy) with the odd flurries (which they have been for the past few days)

They have delivered snow in the past from sliders but these have been touch and go and very marginal and quite rare to deliver proper accumulation 

I would love to see the snowstorms like we had in the 70s and 80s but unfortunately I'm 30 and never experienced anything like that yet.

Edited by Marcus_surfer
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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.
  • Location: Pembrokeshire / Carmarthenshire / Wales. 205m ASL.

Currently -0.7c here. 
I do wonder if the Thursday night snow will amount to much.... either the band won’t travel further east enough or the amount will be minimal.  
Sunday is projected to turn mild.  Hope it’s short lived.   

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Posted
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
7 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

To be honest speaking about my location in Swansea easterly winds are not a good direction here for snow. We do alot better with northwestern cold winds or northern. We get the moisture off the Irish sea and this has created streamers on occasion with about 6-8inches in the early and late 2000s.

Easterlys are normally just dry , mostly cloudy (cold and windy) with the odd flurries (which they have been for the past few days)

They have delivered snow in the past from sliders but these have been touch and go and very marginal and quite rare to deliver proper accumulation 

I would love to see the snowstorms like we had in the 70s and 80s but unfortunately I'm 30 and never experienced anything like that yet.

It was a fantastic time to be alive for the weather and we had great music 

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Swansea - 60m ASL
14 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

To be honest speaking about my location in Swansea easterly winds are not a good direction here for snow. We do alot better with northwestern cold winds or northern. We get the moisture off the Irish sea and this has created streamers on occasion with about 6-8inches in the early and late 2000s.

Easterlys are normally just dry , mostly cloudy (cold and windy) with the odd flurries (which they have been for the past few days)

They have delivered snow in the past from sliders but these have been touch and go and very marginal and quite rare to deliver proper accumulation 

I would love to see the snowstorms like we had in the 70s and 80s but unfortunately I'm 30 and never experienced anything like that yet.

Yep never been a big fan of easterly's here, it seems like its been a long time since we had a decent cold shot from the north west, especially this time of year it normally delivers. 2009 was probably one of the better easterly's for our location but that was mainly due to an area of low pressure moving north.

I think Thurs/Friday's front is going to struggle to make it any further than Pembrokeshire, Saturday is the next potential shot for something more widespread but introduces more marginal conditions towards SW parts.

 

Edited by SnowStorm(Jamie)
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Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
5 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

It was a fantastic time to be alive for the weather and we had great music 

70s/80s music? Yep probably the best!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Location: Pembrokeshire

I can feel the frustration in here.  These current Synoptics are rare and had the potential to deliver a memorable snow event.  We would need a big turnaround now to see anything noteworthy, but still a chance of some small accumulations.  That would make it 3 snow events with lying snow here this winter so far, all being just a small covering, but much better than anything we’ve had here since storm Emma back in 2018.

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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
3 minutes ago, Pembs458 said:

I can feel the frustration in here.  These current Synoptics are rare and had the potential to deliver a memorable snow event.  We would need a big turnaround now to see anything noteworthy, but still a chance of some small accumulations.  That would make it 3 snow events with lying snow here this winter so far, all being just a small covering, but much better than anything we’ve had here since storm Emma back in 2018.

That met office chart shows 15-20cm for parts of SE Wales on Saturday, can't see it though.

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Posted
  • Location: Gilwern, South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Gilwern, South Wales

We haven't done well on the snow front but this is still a pretty rare set up. I'm loving walking on frozen ground rather than mud and at least seeing a bit of snow falling and a light dusting. Some pretty impressive icicles about as well. Not seen them for a while. You never know maybe we'll get lucky at the weekend and see some proper snow. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
5 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

That met office chart shows 15-20cm for parts of SE Wales on Saturday, can't see it though.

Still loads of uncertainty even for Thursday night/Friday.  Wouldn’t rule it out completely just yet.  One thing that is certain, it’ll be different again in the morning.

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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
1 minute ago, Pembs458 said:

Still loads of uncertainty even for Thursday night/Friday.  Wouldn’t rule it out completely just yet.  One thing that is certain, it’ll be different again in the morning.

Maybe we'll see snow both days, imagine both fronts stalling.

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Posted
  • Location: Ogmore Vale (500ft / 150m)
  • Location: Ogmore Vale (500ft / 150m)

A rather depressing models conclusion from stodge in the model thread, he's usually pretty balanced. He states....

"Conclusion: it's clearly game over for the current cold spell despite the promise of just 48 hours ago. If GFS is right, we might squeeze out one more cold day on Sunday but otherwise the milder air marches in and that's that. No sign of an immediate return to cold on any of the models and the more likely evolution looks to be mild and benign with HP not too far by but in the wrong position to send over any colder air. The Atlantic isn't exactly raging either so it may be another waiting game until the next opportunity for amplification. The PV is looking formidable now and unlikely to be of any help so it's a 10-14 day milder spell starting on Sunday at the moment. As always, the models can pick up new signals so it's not a certainty but tonight the prospects for further cold this month after this week don't look bright."

This does not rule out some snow for us on the weekend though, it still looks like we're in with a chance on Saturday, and maybe a little for some of us on Thursday night/Friday morning.

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

Brady  pretty much sums things up

The met office model which we do not see as public, is still showing some Snow Friday into Saturday but becoming rain later, in fact whole South UK in the less cold air before Wednesday, however it is also changing the output on each run. 

The warm air is initially likely to flow over the colder more dense air but that does two things, one it cools the warm air allowing some precipitation, but also the colder dryer air will start to kill off the precipitation. Some areas could see freezing rain for a time.

Models certainly going wrong way after initially pushing a classic breakdown back, it now looks like a damp squib with transient snow if lucky for many.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ogmore Vale (500ft / 150m)
  • Location: Ogmore Vale (500ft / 150m)
4 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Brady  pretty much sums things up

The met office model which we do not see as public, is still showing some Snow Friday into Saturday but becoming rain later, in fact whole South UK in the less cold air before Wednesday, however it is also changing the output on each run. 

The warm air is initially likely to flow over the colder more dense air but that does two things, one it cools the warm air allowing some precipitation, but also the colder dryer air will start to kill off the precipitation. Some areas could see freezing rain for a time.

Models certainly going wrong way after initially pushing a classic breakdown back, it now looks like a damp squib with transient snow if lucky for many.

 

Freezing rain is ghastly! I would rather it be mild and wet than that rubbish! I remember New Year's Eve 1995, absolutely horrid freezing rain with ice everywhere!

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
7 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Brady  pretty much sums things up

The met office model which we do not see as public, is still showing some Snow Friday into Saturday but becoming rain later, in fact whole South UK in the less cold air before Wednesday, however it is also changing the output on each run. 

The warm air is initially likely to flow over the colder more dense air but that does two things, one it cools the warm air allowing some precipitation, but also the colder dryer air will start to kill off the precipitation. Some areas could see freezing rain for a time.

Models certainly going wrong way after initially pushing a classic breakdown back, it now looks like a damp squib with transient snow if lucky for many.

 

Yep it is trending the wrong way for a snowy breakdown (or significant snow anyway). All models then show it turning milder from Monday in Wales but I am still hopeful we could sneak out a decent snowfall over the weekend.

Going to give it 24-48 hours as still thinks there are room for upgrades in the short term.

Longer term looks like turning milder in Wales for a time at least, not a great set of EC Ens. Would we mind too much though if we got a good snow event Friday/Saturday? Onto the 18z's...

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
55 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

To be honest speaking about my location in Swansea easterly winds are not a good direction here for snow. We do alot better with northwestern cold winds or northern. We get the moisture off the Irish sea and this has created streamers on occasion with about 6-8inches in the early and late 2000s.

Easterlys are normally just dry , mostly cloudy (cold and windy) with the odd flurries (which they have been for the past few days)

They have delivered snow in the past from sliders but these have been touch and go and very marginal and quite rare to deliver proper accumulation 

I would love to see the snowstorms like we had in the 70s and 80s but unfortunately I'm 30 and never experienced anything like that yet.

i was lucky enough to live in Swansea during the blizzard of January 1982 and i was 15 at the time.  I remember it well and it snowed heavily for over 36 hours.  By the end of it we had drifts over 10 feet in Dunvant and the snow and sub zero temperatures lasted for a whole week.  The unbelievable thing was the snow was still really deep after a week and then literally overnight it all melted.  I went to bed with deep snow and woke up the next morning with zilch.  just goes to show what mild winds and temperatures can do in a coastal setting.  At least i got to see it and i doubt Swansea will ever see something on that scale again.

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

I must admit the snowiest place i have lived in is Northampton and you usually got at least one decent snow event each winter and the snow lasted for days lying on the ground.  Also had a few great snowy spells living in London and although it tends to be warmer because of the heat islands in the centre, we still had several snow storms with lying snow for days.  Something like this probably happens once every 10 years in Swansea unfortunately.  Not the place to live if you like cold and snow it has to be said.  Maybe next year i will treat myself to a holiday in the snowy alps.

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs

I may have sounded like scrooge a week ago but I’m not surprised or disappointed one bit as I expect nothing less from a boring easterly other than cold crisp days and dandruf. 

Don’t get pulled into the hype of the Mod thread where easterlies are concerned, bring me a Northwesterly any day! 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ogmore Vale (500ft / 150m)
  • Location: Ogmore Vale (500ft / 150m)
5 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I may have sounded like scrooge a week ago but I’m not surprised or disappointed one bit as I expect nothing less from a boring easterly other than cold crisp days and dandruf. 

Don’t get pulled into the hype of the Mod thread where easterlies are concerned, bring me a Northwesterly any day! 

 

Yeah, easterlies are not good for Wales but most of us were hoping for a snowy battleground scenario from these lows approaching from the SW. It's still possible to get some Saturday, at least for a time. But overall it's looking rather pants now!

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Cardiff
11 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Massive win, gutted I can't go to the games - still bought a season ticket though.

The snow was really coming down when Bennett scored

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Not the best model as we all know, however first one out so always gets a look!

ICON improves Thursday night/Friday morning snow for the south. 

Be good to see some upgrades on the others like this. Let’s see what it shows for Sat.

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