Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[snowy36]

This is the worst cold spell i can ever remember , we have zero snow and i expect zero snow and even the cold is not cold . Wake me up when we have some weather.

[Jayfromcardiff]

If the Met Office model doesn't show snow for Saturday then I'm not buying it. The ICON is the odd one out here.

[Loadsa2000]

Today:

Snow Risk:

0%

Tomorrow

Snow Risk 0%

Thu 11/02

Snow Risk 0%

Fri 12/02

Snow Risk 95%

Sat 13/02

Snow Risk 60%

This netweather will it snow

[Panayiotis]

Shame everything fizzled out today but I guess the models were right with that as they didn’t have much interest. The ICON reminds me a bit of the red warning issued a few years back...

[goosey007]

 

well according to metcheck ive got 10cm by sunday evening ...boom boom baby...shame it will change by the morning 

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by goosey007

[Ian Ballinger]

36 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

This is the worst cold spell i can ever remember , we have zero snow and i expect zero snow and even the cold is not cold . Wake me up when we have some weather.

It hasn't even dropped below freezing here

[snowy36]

Does Derek know what the latest ECW is showing.

[bradymk]

43 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

This is the worst cold spell i can ever remember , we have zero snow and i expect zero snow and even the cold is not cold . Wake me up when we have some weather.

It has certainly been disappointing for snow so far, initially easterlies often are for Wales, but the air is definitely very cold.  

If the wind wasn't gusting 30-35mph, the air temps would be much lower. Dew points are -4c to -7c across Wales right now, that is very cold air and the coldest air we've had since BFTE 2018 for sure.

Even though it is uncertain at the moment, hopefully we will do well for snow between Thursday and Monday. Similar to the BFTE in 2018, there was only the odd flurry in Cardiff for the 5 or so days before Storm Emma arrived.

Therefore to early to call it disappointing so far I think, the cold air over us at the moment is making the ground conditions perfect for any snow that does arrive Thurs-Mon. However if we get to a breakdown Monday and we've had no snowfall, then I will be extremely miserable given the conditions we currently have.

Heres to the models starting to firm up on a snow event between Thurs night and Monday 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Anyone think we'll actually see any snow or is it wishful thinking.

Forgot to mention there was a tiny dusting of snow this morning, bit more of a noticeable dusting over Caerphilly mountain.

Edited February 9, 2021 by Jayfromcardiff

[Jayfromcardiff]

I'll take that.

[DeepSnow]

I don't think we'll really know till Thursday itself if we will get any, seeing where the front is and how much it slows up against the cold block. Same for the weekend. Just got to do the hard part and be patient now and see what the fax and radar says come Thursday!

[andymusic]

[andymusic]

valentines day in some more detail from gfs

 

[freeze for all]

Meto updated video forecast still saying snow risk for South Western areas 

[mattrout92]

ECM is dire, not worth posting. 1-2cm widely on Saturday, rain on Sunday and game over

Edited February 9, 2021 by mattrout92

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

52 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Anyone think we'll actually see any snow or is it wishful thinking.

Forgot to mention there was a tiny dusting of snow this morning, bit more of a noticeable dusting over Caerphilly mountain.

See snow more than likely but mainly light, seeing anything more significant starting to look less likely, obviously the ICON 12z would be best case. Unsure what UKV shows this evening.

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[bradymk]

14 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

ECM is dire, not worth posting. 1-2cm widely on Saturday, rain on Sunday and game over

Yep not great unfortunately. Some light snow for the south on Thursday night, heavier in Pembrokeshire. With the ground and air like it is though, accumulation would be better than usual for light precip but still nothing significant. Saturday not great on the whole - however a change in the angle of the front and it would be much better (as per ICON) - at least we're still in the game going into tomorrows runs.

Just awaiting UKV extended.

[mattrout92]

UKV is bone dry Thursday/Friday.

Has this for Saturday, followed by rain on Sunday

.          

[DeepSnow]

6 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

UKV is bone dry Thursday/Friday.

Has this for Saturday, followed by rain on Sunday

.          

I'll take that from an imby with the little red blob of heavier snow over me

[Coilspring]

Well there we go guys and girls. Let's write this off and move on to the next cold spell. Onwards and upwards. 

[Coilspring]

58 minutes ago, andymusic said:

valentines day in some more detail from gfs

 

Yup ill buy a hat and eat it when that comes off.

[Marcus_surfer]

Its looking quite poor to me guys

[snowy36]

20 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

UKV is bone dry Thursday/Friday.

Has this for Saturday, followed by rain on Sunday

.          

I think this model is very poor and i still cant see any snow this weekend , as jay said wishful thinking.  I like Derek but god knows what hes looking at.

Edited February 9, 2021 by snowy36

[Pembroke Dangler]

2 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Its looking quite poor to me guys

Agreed but I’m going to give it until the 12z tomorrow runs and if then the writing is on the wall i will be calling this the cold spell that could have been 

[snowy36]

1 minute ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Agreed but I’m going to give it until the 12z tomorrow runs and if then the writing is on the wall i will be calling this the cold spell that could have been 

I never got excited about this cold spell , even last friday i couldn't see any thing interesting . I think the effects of the SSW is now running out in my books. The Charts have been more interesting than the actual weather this winter.