Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[davehsug]

1 hour ago, Snowguy said:

Headline met office 

Bright spells, isolated showers and cold for Saturday.

This Evening and Tonight:

A cold night across the country with showers persisting through until morning, especially in the north. Clearest skies will be in the south, where there will be a risk of icy stretches by morning. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Saturday:

Mostly dry with bright spells across the country with some isolated showers over the northern areas. Fog patches likely during the morning. Further showers, possibly wintry over hills later on. Maximum temperature 8 °C.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Sunday very cold and mostly dry but a few wintry showers are possible. Very cold on Monday and Tuesday, with scattered snow showers. Feeling bitter throughout with strong easterly winds.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Feb 2021

The radar is already showing sleet & snow over the hills in Mid & North Wales.

[snowy36]

55 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

Good snowfall Thursday/Friday on 18Z GFS, and pushes through slower than 12Z

.    

I dont think it will even make it this far . It is going to be interesting model watching this weekend. 

[dyl232]

I know that white lines indicates snow, and the background colour is the amount of precipitation, but what does the purple lines indicate?

Edited February 6, 2021 by dyl232

[keithlucky]

29 minutes ago, dyl232 said:

I know that white lines indicates snow, and the background colour is the amount of precipitation, but what does the purple lines indicate?

Always thought it was tempreture guide eg purple below zero.

[keithlucky]

So Sunday early hours looks snow covering possible for east Wales.Monday Tuesday snow flurries possible especially east Wales. Wednesday a change to N Easterly wind which originates from Russia.Dry very cold 0 c +1c if you lucky.-10 c  possible at night time in Welsh cold spots. Saturday possible switch to SWest wind,but that's a long way off.So wrap up warm a bone chilling very cold week.

[danthetan]

1 hour ago, dyl232 said:

I know that white lines indicates snow, and the background colour is the amount of precipitation, but what does the purple lines indicate?

freezing rain

[dyl232]

1 minute ago, danthetan said:

freezing rain

Oh Typical my location then, never snows

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

So Sunday early hours looks snow covering possible for east Wales.Monday Tuesday snow flurries possible especially east Wales. Wednesday a change to N Easterly wind which originates from Russia.Dry very cold 0 c +1c if you lucky.-10 c  possible at night time in Welsh cold spots. Saturday possible switch to SWest wind,but that's a long way off.So wrap up warm a bone chilling very cold week.

Is there no snowy breakdown the end of the week?

[keithlucky]

3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is there no snowy breakdown the end of the week?

Not shown atm High pressure tightening its bloody cold though.Still a chance off a surprise snowfall with trough forming in the east and moving across .

Edited February 6, 2021 by keithlucky

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, keithlucky said:

Not shown atm High pressure tightening its bloody cold though.

At least it's dry I guess, bit of a crap cold spell in my opinion. I'd rather have a marginal set up with a chance of snow rather than dry and cold.

[soupsurfer7]

44 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

At least it's dry I guess, bit of a crap cold spell in my opinion. I'd rather have a marginal set up with a chance of snow rather than dry and cold.

Hopefully with the cold air in place for longer it will help to produce more snow when the Atlantic does eventually start it’s battle to break through. The Atlantic always wins in the end but cold air is stubborn to shift so hopefully a big dumping before the rain and milder air comes in

[SLAMMER]

sleet in Llandrindod Wells currently

[mattrout92]

GEM still going for a snowy interlude Thursday

     

It also brings some snow in on Tuesday to S Wales. GFS back to being too progressive as it loves to do, but the models won’t have this correct till Tuesday at the earliest.

Edited February 6, 2021 by mattrout92

[Pembs458]

So many different options still for Thursday next week.  GEM as posted above is best for snow.  GFS is snow to rain and ECM has nothing teaching us at all.  Fascinating to watch it unfold day by day, it’s given me something to do with my 2 weeks off work, whilst in lockdown

[Cymro]

We have heavy Wet snow falling this morning which was a nice surprise. Hopefully the precipitation tonight is further West than forecast, will keep me happy then, otherwise it will be quite a boring cold spell. Having snow cover could really help us hit record breaking cold minima, without it, it's impossible. 

[bradymk]

18 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

GEM still going for a snowy interlude Thursday

     

It also brings some snow in on Tuesday to S Wales. GFS back to being too progressive as it loves to do, but the models won’t have this correct till Tuesday at the earliest.

GEM is the run to bank this morning!

Daytime Max of 1c in Cardiff is the highest temp between tomorrow and next Monday (15th) with a ‘beast from the east’ arriving at day 9/10 to top it off.

Tuesday is interesting. A split in the models but GFS, Icon and GEM all flirting with risk of snow in far south wales. Worth keeping an eye on the next few days.

Before then, MetOffice text forecast for Wales mentioning rain increasingly turning to snow tonight in places. 

Longer term - good trends again this morning if we want the cold extended. GEM being the snowiest but ECM also staying cold, but drier.

Edited February 6, 2021 by bradymk

[keithlucky]

Still looking good for definitely worth radar watch as front pushes west across. Wales already got sleet pp will be snow tonight.

[Marcus_surfer]

Still all up in the air regarding significant snow to Wales next week. Some models show the chance of snow increasing by the end of next week still but could be pushed south or north and could just be plain old rain.

[Pembs458]

The ICON brings a chance of snow grazing the south tues night into Wednesday. 

Edited February 6, 2021 by Pembs458

[Penfoel]

Bitterly cold easterly. Heavy seriously cold rain 4.2mm in 4 hours. 

DP 1.6 

Temp 3.9 Windchill 1.2 

I'd much rather cold and dry than cold and wet. 2nd change of clothes already. 

I'm going to have to invest in handwarmers for the quad and waders. The fields are completely waterlogged. Perhaps a canoe might be a better option! 

 

[Sugarloaf80]

Snowy surprises will pop up in this set up I'm sure. Precipitation charts are rarely right at 24 hours. Get the cold in first as they say and we definitely have that for at least 4-5 days maybe more. If we do see some it may not go anywhere for a while. Fingers crossed. It's gonna feel bitter that's for sure. Good luck everyone hope we all get a bit of snow to go with the extreme cold. 

[keithlucky]

7 minutes ago, Pembs458 said:

The ICON brings a chance of snow grazing the south tues night into Wednesday. 

There's  so much chopping and changing a.t.

m. in the model output because it cannot cope with zonal reversal due to strat warming.For me I'm only looking at fax and radar they seem to be more reliable. 

[goosey007]

bringing 4 to 5 cm widely....and the trend in northward corrections !!!

[snowy36]

So thursday looks like the battle ground day , will the front push into wales before the high pressure swipes it away. The ECW says no but the GEM/GFS says yes. Who will win. I dont think it will get here.

[gareth moo]

GFS 6z has just thrown a 24 hour staller over Wales for Thursday. Marginal upper air temps but could deliver!