Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Coilspring]

52 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Paid a becso Jay I wouldn't take much notice of the Met Office automated forecasts, Last Sunday is case in point! Ignore them, they are meaningless 12 hours out let alone almost a whole week! 

Yup they are basically nowcasting. 

[gareth moo]

Hello?! - Weak occlusion dropping South Saturday night / Sunday early hours. Snow-maker all the way if it can stay in any shape.

Arome (very highly rated) has it as all snow from Cardiff Eastwards. Maybe 3-4 hours of snow in this feature. Further East the better though. Next frame would be be interesting?

[goosey007]

 

Met office showing rain next Thursday....

 

no need to panic just yet jay .... automated forecasts unreliable at best..........the bbc still shows snow for my location all day thursday all be it light but that and met office one will change about 20 times between now and next Thursday ....much yet to be decided especially 6 days out!

Edited February 5, 2021 by goosey007

[Marcus_surfer]

Hard trying to keep up with the model thread.  Havent had a chance to look through all the southeast waffling....Hows it looking now? Weather apps show it turning much milder with rain by Thursday!?

[Marcus_surfer]

Metoffice extended outlook is absolutely awful for the South and West of the country!

[goosey007]

Looks the same as yesterday marcus?

 

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 9 Feb - Thursday 18 Feb

A cold start to the period with significant wind-chill, especially in eastern areas. Snow showers are likely across eastern Scotland, England, and perhaps eastern Northern Ireland, whilst plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further west. There is a small chance of a period of heavy snowfall across parts of southern England and Wales, most likely on Tuesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds. The best of any sunshine will be in the west. Snow showers and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect eastern UK at times, especially at first, whilst the risk of organised rain and snow pushing into the south-west and across southern UK will slowly increase.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Feb 2021

Thursday 18 Feb - Thursday 4 Mar

Very low confidence for the middle of the month as there is a continued chance for unsettled, milder interludes arriving from the west or southwest. This produces a risk of disruptive snowfall during transition periods. Increased confidence at the end of February and the start of March for cold and mostly dry conditions. However, there remains a greater than normal threat of disruptive winter hazards for all areas most of February, with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in the east.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Feb 2021

[Marcus_surfer]

Its updated again. It says turning milder with rain or showers by the weekend.

A cold start to the period with strong eastern winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over north eastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south. There is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England, most likely on Wednesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds, but turning milder over southern and southwestern areas. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the north and the east. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but becoming increasingly confined over higher ground during the weekend

Edited February 5, 2021 by Marcus_surfer

[andymusic]

8 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Its updated again. It says turning milder with rain or showers by the weekend.

A cold start to the period with strong eastern winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over north eastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south. There is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England, most likely on Wednesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds, but turning milder over southern and southwestern areas. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the north and the east. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but becoming increasingly confined over higher ground during the weekend

doesn't mean to say we won't have a snow storm in the transition between cold and mild marcus - could be up to 12 hours of snow then

[Jayfromcardiff]

10 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Its updated again. It says turning milder with rain or showers by the weekend.

A cold start to the period with strong eastern winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over north eastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south. There is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England, most likely on Wednesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds, but turning milder over southern and southwestern areas. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the north and the east. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but becoming increasingly confined over higher ground during the weekend

What an amazing cold spell haha. Nothing to get excited over and it'll be over before we know it. We may see some snow before the rain but what's the point as it'll be gone straight away.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Jayfromcardiff

[Pembs458]

Yeah, but if a disappointing update this afternoon.  Transient snow event looking likely to the best chance for us in the south and west.  Further north and east might do very well though. 

[Marcus_surfer]

15 minutes ago, andymusic said:

doesn't mean to say we won't have a snow storm in the transition between cold and mild marcus - could be up to 12 hours of snow then

Of course Andy im keeping my hopes up hoping for some transient snow. Or maybe even an upgrade or two

[goosey007]

46 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Its updated again. It says turning milder with rain or showers by the weekend.

A cold start to the period with strong eastern winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over north eastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south. There is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England, most likely on Wednesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds, but turning milder over southern and southwestern areas. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the north and the east. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but becoming increasingly confined over higher ground during the weekend

ahh yes but this is the period 10th to 19th Feb so theres still a fair chance of a snow storm before the mild air eventually wins out .....

As the period progresses remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds .....so can only assume mildercondtion set in around 14th 15th ? thats only half way though the period ......very cryptic these met forcasts.... 

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

ahh yes but this is the period 10th to 19th Feb so theres still a fair chance of a snow storm before the mild air eventually wins out .....

As the period progresses remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds .....so can only assume mildercondtion set in around 14th 15th ? thats only half way though the period ......very cryptic these met forcasts.... 

think they keep them very "fluid" so they can have an easy "get out" clause if needed lol

Edited February 5, 2021 by andymusic

[Loadsa2000]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

think they keep them very "fluid" so they can have an easy "get out" clause if needed lol

Been saying this all along

 

[goosey007]

11 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Been saying this all along

 

yeah its 50/50 Id say atlantic may not make too much progress say cornwall and devon sees a slight warm up towards next weekend but then it never makes it s far as south wales.....forcast is still correct but you read into it alot and just think ahhh no snow or very transient ....all option still on the table at this point....we have a bit or wriggle room as we are not far south west.... 

[dbaloo]

All happening then

[Loadsa2000]

latest from the MO. 

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Sunday very cold and mostly dry but a few wintry showers are possible. Very cold on Monday and Tuesday, with scattered snow showers. Feeling bitter throughout with strong easterly winds.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Feb 2021

UK long range weather forecast

Wednesday 10 Feb - Friday 19 Feb

A cold start to the period with strong eastern winds. Heavy and frequent snow showers are likely across northern and eastern areas, especially over north eastern England and eastern Scotland. Nevertheless, plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further south. There is a small threat of persistent snow and rain across parts of southwest England, most likely on Wednesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds, but turning milder over southern and southwestern areas. Outbreaks of rain and showers are likely across western areas, whilst mostly dry and bright in the north and the east. Further snow and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect northern areas but becoming increasingly confined over higher ground during the weekend.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Feb 202

Spot the difference in 12 hours

Tuesday 9 Feb - Thursday 18 Feb

A cold start to the period with significant wind-chill, especially in eastern areas. Snow showers are likely across eastern Scotland, England, and perhaps eastern Northern Ireland, whilst plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further west. There is a small chance of a period of heavy snowfall across parts of southern England and Wales, most likely on Tuesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds. The best of any sunshine will be in the west. Snow showers and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect eastern UK at times, especially at first, whilst the risk of organised rain and snow pushing into the south-west and across southern UK will slowly increase.

And 24hrs earlier

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Saturday expect bright spells and showers, showers most widespread in the east, and wintry later. Sunday and Monday generally cloudy and much colder. Snow showers possible, especially north and east.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Thu 4 Feb 2021

Have they really got a clue less than 12-24hrs away

Edited February 5, 2021 by Loadsa2000

[JamesL]

Good afternoon 

Looks like winter is about to hit my parents in N Kent on Saturday night/Sunday 

Looks fairly benign for most of Wales

Maybe some transient snow on sat night for eastern Wales and the odd snow shower in the early part of the week 

Best chance are lows sliding in from midweek onwards. This is certainly not nailed at this point and as always expect the cold to hang on longer than modelled right now 

I’m hopeful of some battleground snowfall at some point. Whether this is meaningful will be decided in the next 2-3 days 

Until then let’s kick back, relax and enjoy London and the SE grinding to a halt 

At least it gives those living there a little excitement in an otherwise boring lockdown 

Vaccinations will of course be effected for a few days but nothing too meaningful I hope and here in Wales it should be business as normal 

Always the chance of a trough with more organised snow moving east to west and I’m sure the radar will get a hammering over the coming week! 
 

Look out for the elderly and vulnerable too 
 

Hope everyone has a great weekend! 

[Loadsa2000]

2 minutes ago, JamesL said:

Good afternoon 

Looks like winter is about to hit my parents in N Kent on Saturday night/Sunday 

 

And the English side of my family in Essex

Mongrel me Cockney father and welsh mother.

So i thought until my kids thought they would buy me a DNA kit for Christmas

No Welsh Blood not a drop only Cornish Sussex and a couple of Scandinavian countries

So told the kids that i was an original Briton who had been raped and pillaged by a viking

Could be worse

 

[Fujita scale]

I see Derek is Tweeting on the line of cold and dry, od shower skirting east Wales - then we get milder mid-week.

Never raise hopes from any easterly direction - we just need stronger winds penetrating the showers more in land and kinks in the flow!

Alas, not looking good at this moment, perhaps there still time for changes, as I am sure there will be.

JK

[Loadsa2000]

Just now, Fujita scale said:

I see Derek is Tweeting on the line of cold and dry, od shower skirting east Wales - then we get milder mid-week.

Never raise hopes from any easterly direction - we just need stronger winds penetrating the showers more in land and kinks in the flow!

Alas, not looking good at this moment, perhaps there still time for changes, as I am sure there will be.

JK

He is a bit of a mild ramper

 

[A Frayed Knot]

Itv regional forecast just now for Wales mentioned a possibility of SUBSTANTIAL snowfall for most parts of WALES next week where Atlantic low push up against very cold winds from the East. 

So let's all sit back and watch the roller-coaster, Sunday looks quite promising for South East Wales

[andymusic]

meto mention wednesday for the atlantic to invade but it actually happens on thursday

[mattrout92]

Good GEM so far, this is the snow depths by Wednesday, before the Atlantic even tries to fightback

[freeze for all]

Im just looking forward to a few days of no rain, if we have snow thats a bonus but if not I'm not worried we just need things to dry out a bit