Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

16 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:

Unfortunately, I think this spell is going to be a big let down for us snow lovers in Wales, I don’t know why people are still confident that this will last on for some time on the other threads. A term ‘once the cold is in its hard to get rid of’ keeps popping up but this is not the case. 

Nearly all models are clearly showing that the Atlantic will take a strong grip on our weather before it has time to snow from around the 11th Feb. I’m going to say we will see some snow to high ground (Brecon, north Wales, etc.) during that short battle between cold and mild but I think it will be mostly rain to most levels as that mild pushes in and takes over in quick time. If someone thinks different and has different proof then let me know because I’m all ears on this. 

We all got our own opinions glad the met disagrees with you.

[Lloyd1]

10 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Can you post some charts of this mate? I'm pretty sure it's only the GFS.

I don’t have any to hand I just view all the ones on that deep cold thread, if you can point me to a website that I can get access to then I will be happy to have a look. Please remember, I’m looking for you guys to go against my theory and give me some hope for some snow

Edit: yes I’m situated in West Wales and I’m sure you can realise my point haha 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Lloyd1

[keithlucky]

4 minutes ago, RhysWales said:

Met Office think otherwise in their extended, and they've actually called this winter extremely well.

Yes they seem much better long term than the forecast for the next few days.

[mattrout92]

EDIT: deleted wrong Sunday

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by mattrout92

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

ECMWF for Sunday

That says 14th Feb mate.

[mattrout92]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

That says 14th Feb mate.

Yeah apologies - that was this mornings run, and wrong Sunday

[RhysWales]

25 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:

I don’t have any to hand I just view all the ones on that deep cold thread, if you can point me to a website that I can get access to then I will be happy to have a look. Please remember, I’m looking for you guys to go against my theory and give me some hope for some snow

Edit: yes I’m situated in West Wales and I’m sure you can realise my point haha 

I use meteociel.fr mate. Scroll to the bottom and select the european charts on the left hand side - only one it doesn't have is precipitation for ECM but it's easy enough to find your way around! Reckon you'll be grand even in the west by the way. The breakdown will happen but certainly think it may take a couple of attempts. Longer range models (EC46 etc and other outlooks) suggest that. Standard models will take less into consideration so will inevitably often look more climatological. Fingers crossed anyway, haha.

Edited February 4, 2021 by RhysWales

[Jayfromcardiff]

Not looking good on the ECM for next week's snow from the SW.

[mattrout92]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Not looking good on the ECM for next week's snow from the SW.

ECM is too progressive this evening, I think it'll correct to something more favourable closer to the time. When you get cold like this the models struggle to resolve the fightback from the Atlantic and it usually gets delayed as time goes on

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, mattrout92 said:

ECM is too progressive this evening, I think it'll correct to something more favourable closer to the time. When you get cold like this the models struggle to resolve the fightback from the Atlantic and it usually gets delayed as time goes on

Could end up being the met office against all other models.

[andymusic]

6 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Could end up being the met office against all other models.

they've covered themselves with their long range - boundary of snowfall moves south to north etc etc etc - but please remember there's 24 hours between each frame on ecm - so even if, and that's a big if, it happens that way we could have a snowstorm lasting up till 12 - 24 hours - but I still think it won't happen like that - ecm has already moved that bowling ball low south and the cold is still in scotland/northern england - chances are that low will be pushed further south possibly like the gem model to give us a complete snowstorm and not turn to rain. Stop worrying about the breakdown before this has even started for us in Wales - we'll see snow from this set up i'm sure.

Edited February 4, 2021 by andymusic

[andymusic]

[Jayfromcardiff]

7 minutes ago, andymusic said:

That's the 00z mate.

[andymusic]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

That's the 00z mate.

fair dos - but that's what's up for grabs anyway from tonight's run too

[dbaloo]

7 minutes ago, andymusic said:

they've covered themselves with their long range - boundary of snowfall moves south to north etc etc etc - but please remember there's 24 hours between each frame on ecm - so even if, and that's a big if, it happens that way we could have a snowstorm lasting up till 12 - 24 hours - but I still think it won't happen like that - ecm has already moved that bowling ball low south and the cold is still in scotland/northern england - chances are that low will be pushed further south possibly like the gem model to give us a complete snowstorm and not turn to rain. Stop worrying about the breakdown before this has even started for us in Wales - we'll see snow from this set up i'm sure.

Good advice there...let's enjoy what may come before looking for it ending. We won't be looking for the full time whistle before kick off on Sunday in the rugby..enjoy the drama of the game first!

[Gez79]

Ecm12z different from this mornings run but it looks like the lows are to progressive in the Atlantic as others have said. Let’s see what tomorrow’s runs say 

[mattrout92]

ECM 12Z looks like this, but like I said earlier I don't think it's correct. I would be surprised if the low doesn't slide and then stall against the cold air bringing much more snow 

[Lloyd1]

I've been reading Mets 30 days for years and they always cover themselves on all angles. They tend to say it could be cold but also say it could be mild (vis versa). Thus, giving the perception that they’re on point with their long term forecasts but actually quite the opposite. I think if you refer back to it, it follows a similar tone. Don’t get me wrong I prefer the Met from the BBC but it’s something to be mindful of 

[keithlucky]

29 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Could end up being the met office against all other models.

No point talking about changes 7 days the warm front will ajust south a as always does. Until I see upstream support from USA I'm not interested in any LP bulldozing it's way through dense cold which will be entrenched over UK.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Even if we don't see any snow, at least it'll be dry and we won't have to put up with rain.

[WINTRY WALES]

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Not looking good on the ECM for next week's snow from the SW.

This is what I was talking about...more and more indications to me that we won’t have a great battleground situation....hopefully I’m bloody wrong!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

This is what I was talking about...more and more indications to me that we won’t have a great battleground situation....hopefully I’m bloody wrong!

Yep it's always a case of get the cold in but then it's making sure everything falls in place!

[WINTRY WALES]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Yep it's always a case of get the cold in but then it's making sure everything falls in place!

Yes jay...very difficult for us Welsh! I’m hoping we get a bonus of some snow pushing in from the east over late weekend early next week 

[blackrose73]

Wow, the mood in here is yo-yo-ing worse than in the mod thread. Come on guys, details are going to chop and change at this range. The ingredients are still there, it's just the finer details that will fluctuate, a few more times yet I dare say.

[Lloyd1]

3 minutes ago, blackrose73 said:

Wow, the mood in here is yo-yo-ing worse than in the mod thread. Come on guys, details are going to chop and change at this range. The ingredients are still there, it's just the finer details that will fluctuate, a few more times yet I dare say.

I thought that was the whole point of a discussion thread? I’m assuming people’s views tend to conflict another’s during a normal discussion until an agreement or validity in data is achieved