Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Loadsa2000]

33 minutes ago, andymusic said:

overnight saturday into sunday could be interesting - rain to snow event

For us it's when it all starts

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Saturday expect bright spells and showers, showers most widespread in the east, and wintry later. Sunday and Monday generally cloudy and much colder. Snow showers possible, especially north and east.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Thu 4 Feb 2021

UK long range weather forecast

Tuesday 9 Feb - Thursday 18 Feb

A cold start to the period with significant wind-chill, especially in eastern areas. Snow showers are likely across eastern Scotland, England, and perhaps eastern Northern Ireland, whilst plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further west. There is a small chance of a period of heavy snowfall across parts of southern England and Wales, most likely on Tuesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds. The best of any sunshine will be in the west. Snow showers and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect eastern UK at times, especially at first, whilst the risk of organised rain and snow pushing into the south-west and across southern UK will slowly increase.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Thu 4 Feb 2021

[keithlucky]

4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

according to this run Wales will get buried in the Atlantic snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning - I still think though it won't be that quick

You know Andy we get adjustments westward  near the time.

[Loadsa2000]

[snowy36]

I wonder how often  do u get a 1070 high pressure right in the middle of the arctic. 

[snowy36]

I feel sorry for those poor russians that are going to get some sleety rain in this mega cold  No one is feeling  sorry for them in the SE

[Marcus_surfer]

16 minutes ago, andymusic said:

according to this run Wales will get buried in the Atlantic snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning - I still think though it won't be that quick

Yeah it won't happen like that. Will probably be sluggish to even make progress in line with what metoffice are saying. Potential is there for significant snow 

[Gez79]

8 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

I wonder how often  do u get a 1070 high pressure right in the middle of the arctic. 

Surely a high that size is going to help keep the colder air below it in place for longer ?

[andymusic]

gem with our snowstorm next thursday

[dbaloo]

Brilliant potential being shown today

[Gez79]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

gem with our snowstorm next thursday

the Ecm12z is similar 

[andymusic]

[dbaloo]

I do like the consistency of the charts atm....not to say we haven't seen it all go wrong before,sometimes even at the last second it can wrong but *as it stands today* we are heading in the right direction 

[andymusic]

Harmonie beginning to see Saturday now - here's as far as it goes from it's latest charts saturday 12 midday. From now on we can start to put some possible detail on where the snow is gonna be falling, streamers, showers etc

Edited February 4, 2021 by andymusic

[WINTRY WALES]

I’ve got a horrible feeling that we will see some significant snow midweek next week but it will soon turn mild and go to rain gfs and ukmo now look like them lows will quickly barrel through us instead of slow and stalling

[snowy36]

2 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

I’ve got a horrible feeling that we will see some significant snow midweek next week but it will soon turn mild and go to rain gfs and ukmo now look like them lows will quickly barrel through us instead of slow and stalling

The UKMO is not showing that, it would probably follow the GEM.

[Marcus_surfer]

Tuesday looks bitter barely above freezing

[Bartlett High]

Just lifted this from the madhouse!.

[andymusic]

Just now, Marcus_surfer said:

Tuesday looks bitter barely above freezing

yep - plus the wind chill - husky weather lol

[WINTRY WALES]

22 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

The UKMO is not showing that, it would probably follow the GEM.

From what I could see it looks like blowing up the lies a bit more but doesn’t go out as far as the gfs...I do hope it follows the GEM! I want a few disruptive snow events with cold locking in them like the good old days

[snowy36]

3 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

From what I could see it looks like blowing up the lies a bit more but doesn’t go out as far as the gfs...I do hope it follows the GEM! I want a few disruptive snow events with cold locking in them like the good old days

My money is on the ECW not following the GFS

[Lloyd1]

Unfortunately, I think this spell is going to be a big let down for us snow lovers in Wales, I don’t know why people are still confident that this will last on for some time on the other threads. A term ‘once the cold is in its hard to get rid of’ keeps popping up but this is not the case. 

Nearly all models are clearly showing that the Atlantic will take a strong grip on our weather before it has time to snow from around the 11th Feb. I’m going to say we will see some snow to high ground (Brecon, north Wales, etc.) during that short battle between cold and mild but I think it will be mostly rain to most levels as that mild pushes in and takes over in quick time. If someone thinks different and has different proof then let me know because I’m all ears on this. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

10 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:

Unfortunately, I think this spell is going to be a big let down for us snow lovers in Wales, I don’t know why people are still confident that this will last on for some time on the other threads. A term ‘once the cold is in its hard to get rid of’ keeps popping up but this is not the case. 

Nearly all models are clearly showing that the Atlantic will take a strong grip on our weather before it has time to snow from around the 11th Feb. I’m going to say we will see some snow to high ground (Brecon, north Wales, etc.) during that short battle between cold and mild but I think it will be mostly rain to most levels as that mild pushes in and takes over in quick time. If someone thinks different and has different proof then let me know because I’m all ears on this. 

Can you post some charts of this mate? I'm pretty sure it's only the GFS.

[RhysWales]

14 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:

Unfortunately, I think this spell is going to be a big let down for us snow lovers in Wales, I don’t know why people are still confident that this will last on for some time on the other threads. A term ‘once the cold is in its hard to get rid of’ keeps popping up but this is not the case. 

Nearly all models are clearly showing that the Atlantic will take a strong grip on our weather before it has time to snow from around the 11th Feb. I’m going to say we will see some snow to high ground (Brecon, north Wales, etc.) during that short battle between cold and mild but I think it will be mostly rain to most levels as that mild pushes in and takes over in quick time. If someone thinks different and has different proof then let me know because I’m all ears on this. 

Met Office think otherwise in their extended, and they've actually called this winter extremely well.

[Gee]

Thinking of booking Thursday and Friday off work next week...That will jinx it for all of us.

[A Frayed Knot]

14 minutes ago, Lloyd1 said:

Unfortunately, I think this spell is going to be a big let down for us snow lovers in Wales, I don’t know why people are still confident that this will last on for some time on the other threads. A term ‘once the cold is in its hard to get rid of’ keeps popping up but this is not the case. 

Nearly all models are clearly showing that the Atlantic will take a strong grip on our weather before it has time to snow from around the 11th Feb. I’m going to say we will see some snow to high ground (Brecon, north Wales, etc.) during that short battle between cold and mild but I think it will be mostly rain to most levels as that mild pushes in and takes over in quick time. If someone thinks different and has different proof then let me know because I’m all ears on this. 

Yeh 'maybe for you as you are on the West Coast and it tends to be a little bit warmer there but I do think you will see falling snow next week and this cold is here in situ for definite. Don't feel downbeat as the future looks fantastic for coldies. Exiting times ahead.